WBB: Five Things to Watch - Home Stretch

South Carolina has reached the unofficial two/thirds point of its season. There are eleven games left, ten of them conference games, so it’s time to start thinking about the postseason.

1. Around the country

This has been one of the most wide open season anyone can remember. Oregon entered the season the clear favorite, and an exhibition win over Team USA only bolstered that perception. But that game was only an exhibition, and the Ducks have been very good, but mortal. That could be said of most of the top teams. Baylor only has one loss, to South Carolina, but that was without Lauren Cox. With her, Baylor knocked off UConn.

Mid-majors like Gonzaga, Missouri State, and South Dakota have been hovering around the top 25 all season, while tradition powers like Duke and Notre Dame have struggled just to reach .500. Texas A&M has dropped off the radar a bit due to a Chennedy Carter’s ankle injury,

There are no unbeaten teams left, and the AP has already had four different #1 teams, tied for the most ever. This is also the first season since 2016-17 that the AP and Coaches’ Polls have had a different #1 team (the coaches have Baylor #1). I seem to recall South Carolina doing well that season.

2. The SEC race

South Carolina is now firmly in the driver’s seat in the SEC. They have a one game lead on Mississippi State, and do not play the Bulldogs again, giving them a tiebreaker for tournament seeding. They also have a one game lead on Tennessee, who they play February 2. South Carolina still has a game against Kentucky and Texas A&M, but has a two-game lead on both.Then we get into a middle of the pack mess.

Essentially, the Gamecocks now have a margin for error. They can lose a game and still be in first place. The Lady Vols, because they are only one game back and still play the Gamecocks, are the only other team that controls their own destiny. And even though they only have one conference loss, the Lady Vols haven’t inspired a ton of confidence, needing a last second shot to beat Alabama on Monday in Knoxville. Tennessee steps out of conference to play UConn Thursday night.

South Carolina’s remaining schedule is at Georgia and Ole Miss, home for Tennessee, at Arkansas, home for UConn, Auburn, Vanderbilt, and LSU, followed by road trips to Kentucky and Florida, and then the season finale against Texas A&M.

3. The race for a #1 seed

I recently came across an old ESPN article from the week of Thanksgiving. It was a roundtable asking who the #2 team in the country was. Oregon, obviously, was heads and shoulders above everyone else, but who was next? One person, trying to be a contrarian, picked South Carolina, then ranked #5.

Fast forward to today. Oregon has two losses and is ranked #4 (and was #6 last week). The Ducks have some concerns about consistency, and didn’t receive a single first place vote in this week’s poll. South Carolina is atop the poll for the second week, and picked up two first place votes. Now the question is, “Are the Gamecocks the top overall seed?”

As I have often said, the seed is not as important as the site for South Carolina. They want to play in the Greenville region whether they are a #1 or a #4, giving them a postseason path that doesn’t leave the Iodine State until the Final Four. But this deep into the season, South Carolina can start getting greedy. Playing in Greenville isn’t enough, they can be a #1 seed. And not just a #1 seed, the #1 seed. That would mean being paired with a weaker #2, a big deal considering the perceived drop-off around the seven or eight seed..

South Carolina most likely has to win out to get the top overall seed. With so many candidates (including Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, and Connecticut), there would be someone to immediately step in if South Carolina slips up.

South Carolina could probably lose a game and still get a top seed. The Gamecocks have the best resume currently, at #2 in the RPI with three top ten and six top 25 wins. They will get to pad that resume with games against Tennessee, UConn, Texas A&M, and the SEC Tournament.

We will get our first sense of what the selection committee is thinking on February 3. During halftime of the UConn-Oregon game that night the first top 16 rankings will be released, with teams listed in seed order. There will be another release a month later, on March 2, although the NCAA emphasizes that these rankings are snapshots, and not a basis for future rankings or the final tournament selection.

4. And UConn

With that in mind, the traditional February game against UConn takes on a little more importance. Most seasons, the game is mostly for pride, for South Carolina to see how it matches up, but with the focus on winning the SEC, beating UConn isn’t a priority. That certainly isn’t the only reason reason South Carolina has never beaten UConn (the Huskies being pretty good would be the main reason), but it has been a factor.

That is still true this year - winning the SEC is the top priority. But with a potential top seed at stake, there is a real incentive to beat the Huskies. Will this be the year the Gamecocks finally are able to get over the Husky Hex? It feels like as good a time as any.

5. Important dates

I already mentioned the committee top 16 rankings reveals, but I’ll review for those in the back. The first is February 3. The second is March 2, the day after the regular season ends and prior to the conference tournaments. The SEC Tournament begins Wednesday, March 4, but barring a complete collapse, South Carolina will have a double bye and not play until Friday. The brackets will be revealed on Monday, March 16. The first two rounds are March 20-23 (Friday through Monday). The regionals are March 27-30 (Friday through Monday). The dates and times have already been determined for each site, meaning if South Carolina plays in the Greenville region as expected, we know the tip times already. The Sweet 16 games are at 7:00 pm and 9:30 pm on Friday, March 27. The Elite Eight game will be at noon on Sunday, March 29. The Final Four is Friday, April 2 (7:00 and 9:30 pm) in New Orleans, with the championship game on Sunday, April 4 (6:00 pm).