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Battle in the Bluegrass State: Gamecocks-Kentucky preview

Aerial view of the new Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Ky. (UNiversity of Kentucky)

What: South Carolina (2-1) at Kentucky (1-2)

Where: Commonwealth Stadium (61,000), Lexington, Ky.

When: Sat., Sept. 24, 7:30 p.m. ET

TV/Radio: SEC Network (Brent Musburger, Jesse Palmer, Kaylee Hartung); Gamecock IMG Sports Network (Todd Ellis, Tommy Suggs, Langston Moore); Sirius 106/XM 190

It’s still September, of course, but Saturday night’s matchup in the middle of race horse country has the look and feel of a quasi-bowl elimination game. Stated another way, the loser must pull off at least one upset to reach the qualifying six wins, while the winner has an easier road to bowl eligibility. Kentucky was expected to be 2-1 at this point, but stumbled in the opener against Southern Miss. The Gamecocks could surprisingly improve to 3-1 with a victory. Very few analysts predicted that before the season. With home games remaining against UMass, Missouri and Western Carolina, six wins is certainly attainable should the Gamecocks prevail.

WHEN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS THE BALL

It took three games, but the debate over who should be the Gamecocks’ quarterback has been finally settled. Brandon McIlwain still commits typical freshman mistakes, but his ability to gain yards with his legs gave him an important edge over Perry Orth, who has kept his team-first personality throughout the ordeal.

After playing the entire second half at Mississippi State, McIlwain became just the fourth true freshman to start at quarterback for the Gamecocks since they joined the SEC in 1992. Ironically, two of the four are currently on the USC roster since Lorenzo Nunez, training to be a wide receiver, started against UCF and Missouri last season before an injury forced him to step aside for Orth, who started the final seven games.

McIlwain went the distance in last week’s win over East Carolina and has now played seven of the 12 quarters of football this season. He completed 16-of-28 passes for 195 yards and rushed nine times for 34 yards, using his legs to score twice in the first quarter.

A.J. Turner is still USC’s No. 1 running back, but David Williams emerged from the darkness to lead the Gamecocks in rushing for the first time in his career, amassing 67 yards on seven carries. Williams’ biggest problem has been consistency as he has rarely put two solid games together back-to-back in his career. He credits a meeting with Muschamp before the ECU game for helping put his mind at ease in terms of knowing what he had to do to get back in Muschamp’s good graces. Averaging 9.57 yards per carry helps, too.

Deebo Samuel’s seemingly chronic hamstring problems popped up again and he sat out the East Carolina win, opening the for freshman Bryan Edwards to lead the Gamecocks in receptions for the second time in three games this season. Another freshman, Randrecous Davis, showed flashes of his potential with 2 receptions for 32 yards, including a sensational grab along the sidelines in front of the Gamecocks bench.

The tight ends are playing an increasingly important role within the passing offense as the season approaches the one-third point. Hayden Hurst and K.C, Williams have combined for 20 receptions and 179 yards in the first three games.

Beginning with the second half of the season opener, Kentucky’s defense has been horrific over the last 10 quarters. Each of the Wildcats’ first three opponents have amassed 500 or more yards in total offense. Mark Stoops is a no-nonsense coach and he ripped into the Wildcats defense following a lethargic practice on Wednesday. If you listen to Stoops, UK lacks heart, energy, toughness and a sense of urgency on the defensive side of the football. Inexperience could be a culprit.

Seven of the 11 starters listed on the depth chart are sophomores. At the moment, Kentucky is hanging its hat on the fact they allowed just seven points after halftime and notched its ninth consecutive game forcing a turnover against lowly New Mexico State last weekend. Another sliver of good news - Kentucky leads the SEC in interceptions and ranks fifth nationally with six on the season.

Regardless of the results so far, the Kentucky defense does not lack for talent. Sophomore cornerbacks Derrick Baity (6-3) and Chris Westry (6-4) are very tall and already have NFL scouts monitoring their progress. Sophomore linebacker Jordan Jones has been productive with 35 tackles to lead all SEC defenders in tackles per game after three games with 11.7. Jones is second in the nation in solo tackles. Sophomore safety Mike Edwards ranks third in the SEC in tackles per game with 9.0.

WHEN KENTUCKY HAS THE BALL

This was supposed to be Drew Barker’s breakout season as Kentucky quarterback. The former four-start prospect was ready to take control of the Wildcats offense and become the next great Wildcats quarterback. But a back injury has shelved him for several weeks.

JUCO transfer Stephen Johnson literally holds the fate of Kentucky’s season – and perhaps Stoops’ tenure as head coach – in his hands as he prepares to become the full-time starter. It’s his gig completely as the new backup is a true freshman.

Early returns on Johnson, who debuted at Florida two weekends ago, have been positive. More mobile than Barker, Johnson had 310 yards and three touchdowns passing vs. New Mexico State. He is the second quarterback in UK history to pass for at least 300 yards within their first two career games played. The other is Jared Lorenzen against Louisville on Sept. 2, 2000. Kentucky is averaging 18.4 yards per completion, sixth best in the nation. Individually, Jeff Badet leads the nation with 34.3 yards per reception, while Ryan Timmons (1,030 receiving yards for his career) and Garrett Johnson (1,139) are both proven receivers. Johnson’s 143 receiving yards vs. Southern Miss are the second-most by an SEC player this season.

Johnson is supported by a solid running game led by Stanley “Boom” Williams, who ranks fourth in the SEC with 113.7 rushing yards per game. He now has 1,682 career rushing yards, 14th on Kentucky’s career rushing list. Williams is the third quickest player to reach 1,500 career rushing yards in school history (22 games).

Junior Jojo Kemp, who burned the Gamecocks two years go out of the Wildcat, has 1,380 yards rushing in his career. True freshman running back Benny Snell Jr. rushed for four touchdowns against New Mexico State and currently leads the SEC with four rushing touchdowns through three games.

After keeping the prolific East Carolina out of the end zone for over 57 minutes last Saturday, the Gamecocks rank first in the SEC and seventh in the nation in red zone defense. The Gamecocks allowed ECU to score on just two of six chances in the red zone. In 16 opportunities this season, USC has allowed just five touchdowns and four field goals while forcing four turnovers in the red zone.

After a miserable first half at Mississippi State, the Gamecocks defense has allowed just 18 points in the last six quarters. Cornerback Chris Lammons enjoyed one of his best games with USC against East Carolina, recording an interception, sack, two tackles for loss and a forced fumble. Jamarcus King has his first career interception.

SYNOPSIS: Even though the matchup between the South Carolina defense and the Kentucky offense is intriguing with Johnson making his first career start for Big Blue, all eyes are fixated on the Wildcats defense. Are they really as bad as the numbers suggest? Does the unit lack toughness and heart as Stoops suggested this week? We’ll find out Saturday. For the third time this season, the Gamecocks face a desperate team in a must-win situation. With Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Mississippi State and Louisville ahead on the schedule, Kentucky faces a rocky road – and an uncertain future – should they lose Saturday. The school didn’t spend hundreds of millions of dollars to refurbish Commonwealth Stadium for a football program that can’t reach six wins annually. Still, the Kentucky defense is poor. Until we see something different, that’s the way it is. I expect McIlwain and the Gamecock offense to take full advantage of Kentucky’s defense woes. USC will end its brief two-game losing streak to the Wildcats with an emphatic offensive performance.

PREDICTION: Gamecocks 34, Kentucky 24

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