TV/Radio: SEC Network (Brent Musberger, Jesse Palmer, Maria Taylor); Gamecock Radio Network, 107.5 FM In Columbia (Todd Ellis, Tommy Suggs, Langston Moore); Satellite Radio Sirius 108/XM 190
For just the fourth time since joining the SEC in 1992, the Gamecocks will play a football game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn. USC has not beaten the Tigers since the Great Depression (1933). Is this the year the Gamecocks end their seven-game losing streak to Auburn. With back-to-back losses to Missouri and Kentucky, USC is trying to avoid losing three straight conference games for the first time since 2009. If the Gamecocks pull off the upset, it will be the second-best road win in school history based on the Associated Press rankings.
USC OFFENSE v. AUBURN DEFENSE:
Steve Spurrier strives for balance on offense, but this should be a game where the 'Clemson strategy' works the best. The Gamecocks have beaten the Tigers the last three or four years by predominantly running the football and controlling the clock for long stretches of time, thereby keeping the opponent's potentially more explosive offense on the sidelines.
Fifty or more rushing attempts by USC? Very likely. The Gamecocks last hit the half-century mark against - you guessed it - Clemson last November when they ran the ball 50 times for 140 yards and held the ball for more than 38 minutes. Little success early? Keep pounding away and try to wear down Auburn's defensive front seven.
Offensively, this game is clearly in the hands of running backs Mike Davis (662 yards on 121 carries) and Brandon Wilds (276 yards on 56 carries), along with the USC offensive line. They must get a push up front. USC doesn't need a lot of long runs. Instead, what it needs is a bunch of four- and five-yard runs to keep the chains and clock moving, and the Auburn crowd quiet (if that is possible).
While time of possession is normally a meaningless statistic, especially in this era of high-tempo, hurry-up offenses, TOP could have a pivotal role in this game. USC is fourth in the SEC in TOP at 31:34, but must raise that figure above 35 minutes to have a realistic chance of winning the game.
Nearly 66 percent (about two-thirds) of the rushing attempts this season have been by Davis or Wilds. In fact, the third leading rusher in number of carries is quarterback Dylan Thompson, who has completed 61.3 percent (146-238) of his passes this season for 1,839 yards and 15 touchdowns.
The USC offensive line has experienced up-and-downs this season, but the unit must bring its "A" game as far as run-blocking is concerned to the Plains or the Gamecocks will struggle to accomplish much on offense. Mike Matulis returned from his severely sprained knee last week and could see more action on Saturday. Will Sport has done a decent job at right guard, but Matulis has extensive experience in situations like the one USC faces Saturday night.
Auburn's defense is allowing just 18.3 points per game, but is situated in the middle of the pack in total defense (7th, 333.7 ypg), rushing defense (7th, 120.7 ypg) and pass defense (7th, 213.0 ypg).
What the Auburn defense has done this season is get better in the second half. In six games, the Tigers have allowed a total of 34 points, 747 total yards (124.5 per game), 229 rushing yards and 518 passing yards in the second half.
The Auburn defense has done two things extremely well this season: interceptions (10) and red zone defense. The Tigers are second in the SEC behind Mississippi State in red zone scoring percentage on defense, allowing opponents to tally points 69.6 percent (16-23) of the time with 12 touchdowns, four field goals and two turnovers.
USC possesses the SEC's best red zone offense (27-28, 96.4 percent), so the battle between the Gamecocks and Tigers whenever USC penetrates the AUB 20-yard line should be captivating, and potentially decisive.
KEY OFFENSIVE PLAYERS: QB Dylan Thompson, RB Mike Davis, RB Brandon Wilds, WR Pharoh Cooper, TE Jerell Adams, LT Corey Robinson, LG A.J. Cann, C Alan Knott.
KEY DEFENSIVE PLAYERS: DE Davonte Lambert, DE Gimel President, DT Montravius Adams, MLB Cassanova McKinzy, CB Johnathan Ford, CB Jonathan Jones.
KEY MATCHUPS:
1. USC RB Mike Davis vs. AUB MLB Cassanova McKinzy;
2. USC WR Pharoh Cooper vs. AUB CB Johnathan Ford;
3. USC LT Corey Robinson and RT Brandon Shell vs. AUB DE Davonte Lambert and DE Gimel President.
COACH'S COMMENT: "Auburn runs the ball extremely well and are certainly very capable of throwing the ball. Their defense is very solid. Ellis Johnson has been doing it a long time. He has an excellent bunch of athletes, well-coached, so it'll be a challenge for us. We have to bring our "A" game and see if we can get a break or two." - USC head coach Steve Spurrier
AUBURN OFFENSE vs. USC DEFENSE:
When Gus Malzahn was Auburn's offensive coordinator during the Tigers' 2010 national championship run, he received a lot of credit for the way he built his unique spread option attack around Cam Newton. He exited the following year to become the head coach at Arkansas State.
However, when Gene Chizik crashed and burned during the 2012 season, Auburn looked to Malzahn to get the program back on track. He hired Ellis Johnson to oversee the Auburn defense, giving him the freedom to transform the Tigers' offense into one of the most feared units in the country.
Auburn is averaging 308.4 rushing yards per game and 497.3 yards of total offense in 20 games under Malzahn as head coach. Auburn is third nationally and first among "Power 5" conference teams by averaging 308.4 rushing yards per game since the beginning of the 2013 season, only trailing Navy (331.3) and Army (313.3).
While Malzahn is the architect of the Auburn offense, he needs someone to drive the limousine. Quarterback Nick Marshall, a Georgia transfer, is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, becoming just the third player in Auburn history to throw for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in his career. Marshall has thrown for 2,940 yards and rushed for 1,560 yards in two seasons as Auburn's starting QB.
Marshall is supported in the run game by senior Cameron Artis-Payne, who has rushed for 664 yards (110.7 ypg, 3rd in the SEC) so far in 2014, most by an Auburn player in the first six games of a season since Michael Dyer rushed for 679 yards through the first six games of 2011. Corey Grant has 40 rushing attempts for 254 yards.
Auburn is averaging 47.2 carries per game this season and has run the ball 64.2 percent of the time (283 rushing attempts) compared to 35.8 percent pass attempts (158). The Tigers averaged 52.1 rushing attempts per game in 2013.
When Marshall drops back to throw the ball, his primary target has been wide receiver D'haquille Williams, who has 31 receptions for 493 yards and five touchdowns. The second place receiver (Sammie Coates) has 12 receptions for 222 yards in five games.
The biggest news for the USC defense this week came on Thursday when defensive coordinator Lorenzo Ward announced freshman Bryson Allen-Williams had moved to defensive end for the rest of the season, hopefully providing a spark to that position.
Except for Gerald Dixon, the defensive ends have been underwhelming this season when they have been healthy. Lack of production and multiple injuries led to walk-on Michael Washington starting last week's win vs. Furman. However, David Johnson should return this week and he could get the start.
Chris Moody and T.J. Gurley will start at safety, with Chaz Elder backing up Moody. Elder fell from grace due to subpar play and improper pre-snap checks, but Ward said he now looks ready to play.
Defensively, USC must win its share of third-down battles, or it could face along night. Auburn is second nationally - and first in the SEC - in third down conversion percentage (54 percent, 47-of-87), trailing only Georgia Tech. That number jumps to 71.4 percent in the fourth quarter (15-21). USC is 13th in the SEC in third down conversion percentage defense (40.2 percent), so the Gamecocks will have their hands full trying to get the Auburn offense off the field.
KEY DEFENSIVE PLAYERS: DE Gerald Dixon, DE Bryson Allen-Williams, DT J.T. Surratt, OLB Skai Moore, SPR Sharrod Golightly, CB Brison Williams, CB Chris Lammons.
KEY MATCHUPS:
1. AUB QB Nick Marshall vs. USC OLB Skai Moore
2. AUB WR D'haquille Williams vs. USC CB Brison Williams;
3. AUB OT Shon Coleman vs. USC DE Gerald Dixon.
COACH'S COMMENT: "I've always looked up to Coach Spurrier. I've had nothing but respect for the way he operates. He has a great offensive mind. I got to know him off the field. He's a super guy. He's one of the best. He has a different way of doing things and communicating. Anytime anybody is successful and you look up to someone, you try to take things that could help you. He's got the air about him" - Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn.
POSITION COMPARISON:
Quarterback - Edge to Auburn
Running Back - Slight Edge to USC
Wide Receiver - Edge to USC
Offensive Line - Edge to Auburn
Tight End - Even
Defensive Line - Edge to Auburn
Linebacker - Even
Secondary - Edge to Auburn
Special Teams - Edge to Auburn
SYNOPSIS: For whatever reason, USC simply can't beat Auburn as seen by the Gamecocks' 0-7 record against the Tigers since 1992. USC has come close a couple of times in 2010 at Auburn (led after three quarters) and 2011 at Williams-Brice Stadium. However, in both games, the Tigers made more plays in the fourth quarter than the Gamecocks and walked away with the win. Gus Malzahn has transformed the Auburn program since his arrival in December of 2012. War Eagle has yet to lose at home under Malzahn (12-0) and has won by an average score of 41.4-17.7. LSU lost, 41-7, at Jordan Hare three weeks ago. In its first four home games this season, Auburn has scored 45, 59, 45 and 41 points. Is the USC defense capable of stopping the Auburn offense? The data collected over the first six or seven games concludes the answer is probably not. As Steve Spurrier said this week, the Gamecocks MUST bring their "A" game to the Plains in all three phases, especially on defense, or they could get run out of the building. We've heard a lot this week about the Georgia win on Sept. 13 because it offers hope for the Gamecocks that if they play with that same level of energy, enthusiasm and emotion, they have a chance. The key difference, of course, is this game is being played on the road in a very hostile environment.
PREDICTION: The outcome of this game depends on three things: 1) Capability of the USC offense to employ the "Clemson strategy" of controlling the ball for long stretches of time and keeping the Auburn offense on the sidelines; 2) The USC defense containing the Auburn rushing attack for 60 minutes; 3) The USC defense keeping Auburn under 40 percent on third down conversions; and 4) USC has a positive number in turnover margin. If the Gamecocks succeed on all three factors, they have a chance to win the game. USC could keep it close for a half, or even three quarters, until Auburn's superior talent and depth takes over in the fourth quarter.