Published Apr 5, 2024
Final Four: NC State Preview and Prediction
Stephen Anderson  •  GamecockScoop
Staff Writer
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@GCScoopStephen

Who: #1 South Carolina (36-0) vs #3 seed NC State (31-6). Cleveland, Ohio

Time/TV: 7 p.m. on ESPN with Ryan Ruocco, Rebecca Lobo, Holly Rowe on the call. It was announced this week that Aliyah Boston will work the host desk along with Elle Duncan, Carolyn Peck, Andraya Carter, and Chiney Ogwumike.

Line: SC -11.5. Total 139.5. ML SC -1200 and +680 for State. This line has held steady all week.

History: NC State leads the all-time series 20-12 officially, I say officially because South Carolina had to forfeit one on the court win in the early 80s. On the court, the series is 19-13 in State's favor. The two schools have never met in the NCAA Tournament. The Gamecocks are 4-2 against the Wolfpack under Dawn Staley. The two schools played a home and home series in 2020 and 2021, with each team winning on the other's home court.

The Gamecocks are making their sixth Final Four appearance. In national semifinal games the Gamecocks are 2-3 with wins over Stanford in 2017 and Louisville in 2022. All of Carolina's Final Four appearances came under Staley. This is NC State's second trip to the Final Four with the only other appearance culminating in a 84-65 loss to Louisiana Tech in the 1998 national semifinal game.

Last Meeting: November 9, 2021, South Carolina opened their 2021-2022 National Championship season with a 66-57 win over State in Raleigh. Zia Cooke led Carolina with 17 points and Destanni Henderson added 14 points as the Gamecocks won a rock fight of a game. Madison Hayes for State and Kamilla Cardoso, Bree Hall, and Raven Johnson are the only player remaining on either roster that played in that game.

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Scouting the Wolfpack

NC State has had to defeat the highest possible seed in each game throughout their NCAA Tournament run and they've done so without a true scare. The Pack beat 14-seed Chattanooga 64-45, 6-seed Tennessee 79-72, 2-seed Stanford 77-67, and 1-seed Texas 76-66. The Wolfpack have buried all of their tournament opponents with big quarters. They used a 25-8 second run against Tennessee to ballon their lead to 18 at half. Much like the Vols did against the Gamecocks, they made a run and cut the Pack to 2 with 4:19 in the fourth quarter before Aziaha James went on a personal 5-0 run. Against Stanford, State took over the third quarter with a 28-10 run, erasing a 10-point Cardinal lead at the half. James then went 5-for-5 from deep in the first half as State led Texas by 12 at the break.

The aforementioned James is the Pack's leading scorer at 16.7 points but she's been way better in the NCAA Tournament. After leading the Wolfpack in scoring in the first two games, James exploded in the regionals with 29 and 27 points against Stanford and Texas. NC State also gets double-figure scoring averages from former Gamecock Saniya Rivers 12.7 ppg, Mimi Collins 10.7 ppg, River Baldwin 10.6 ppg, and Madison Hayes 10.4 ppg. Hayes is also a 40% three-point shooter. While James is the leading scorer, Rivers is NC State's MVP. In addition to her 12.7 points, she is averaging 6.3 rebounds, 2.2 steals, and 3.7 assists. She was named first-team all-ACC, ACC All-Defense, and honorable mention All-American.The Wolfpack have four players averaging between 6-to-7 rebounds a game, but have still struggled on the glass against larger opponents. They've been outrebounded by their last three opponents. Zoe Brooks is the only player that will see any significant minutes off the NC State bench. The freshman averaged nearly nine points a game.

NC State wasn't highly touted entering the season. They were selected eighth in the ACC Preseason Poll. The Wolfpack soundly defeated fellow Final Four participant UConn in Raleigh in November. Rivers had 33 points in that game. They also beat Colorado in November and have yet to lose to a non-ACC team this season. The Pack have losses to Virginia Tech 2x, a head-scratcher at Miami, North Carolina, Duke, and Notre Dame.

Gamecock Notes

Dawn Staley picked up her fourth Naismith Coach of the Year award on Wednesday, becoming the first men’s or women’s coach to claim the honor in three straight seasons. She was also named the AP Coach of the Year.

South Carolina’s 38.8 bench points per NCAA Tournament game leads the event. The Gamecock bench as outscored its counterparts by 32.8 points per game in the tournament. The Gamecocks lead the NCAA Tournament with 45.3 rebounds per game. In addition to the usual top two rebounders – Cardoso (8.7 rpg), Watkins (7.3 rpg) – Sania Feagin has added 6.5 boards per game in the tournament, up from her season average of 3.8.

Prediction:

South Carolina can not let James got hot from three. They also are going to have to avoid the big Wolfpack runs they've been going on this tournament. If the Gamecocks have a flaw, its that they haven't been closing teams out. Carolina let a 14-point lead slip to just four against Oregon State and more egregiously a 22-point lead against Indiana down to two in the game's final 90 seconds. South Carolina is the better and deeper team. Kamilla Cardoso should have a big day as the Pack was torched by the similar Elizabeth Kitley of Virginia Tech. The line of 11.5 seems a bit high. Carolina has not covered in three-of-four NCAA games, nor did they cover the line in any of their SEC Tournament wins. Gamecocks 74-66.

Bonus: One has to think that everyone and their mother is going to be picking/betting on Iowa as 2.5 favorite over UConn. Geno Auriemma doesn't have all those national titles because he doesn't know what he's doing. Going solely off a suspicious line only. UConn 89-86.