Published Apr 7, 2024
National Championship Game: Iowa Preview
Stephen Anderson  •  GamecockScoop
Staff Writer
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@GCScoopStephen

Who: #1 South Carolina (37-0) vs #1 seed Iowa (34-4). Cleveland, Ohio

Time/TV: 3 p.m. on ABC and ESPN with Ryan Ruocco, Rebecca Lobo, Holly Rowe on the call. Aliyah Boston will work the host desk along with Elle Duncan, Carolyn Peck, Andraya Carter, and Chiney Ogwumike.

Line: SC -6.5. Total 160.5. ML SC -290 and +225 for Iowa. Immediately after the Iowa/UConn ended the line opened at SC -5.5.

History: 1-1 tie. Carolina beat Iowa in a preseason tournament in Hilton Head in 1989. South Carolina is 2-0 in National Championship games while the Hawkeyes are 0-1.

Last Meeting: Everyone remembers.

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General Thoughts

South Carolina bench is outscoring opponents bench 36-8 this postseason. Iowa will play 8, but they usually only get meaningful contributions from one player not in their starting lineup.

A lot is being made about how Dawn Staley is going to defend Caitlin Clark, but just as intriguing is how Lisa Blunder will defend Carolina. Last season’s approach of packing the lane won’t work, the Gamecocks have five players that will hit a three, led by Te-Hina PaoPao. If Iowa’s bigs are left on an island with Cardoso and Watkins, they should be able to repeat what LSU did in the post.

Iowa has lost four games this season. There doesn’t appear to be a secret sauce to beat the Hawkeyes. It helps when they don’t shoot well. It helps when the opponent has an advantage in the post, but those factors have been present in a lot of Hawkeye wins.

I’m going with Raven Johnson as the key to this game. She’s been calling this the revenge season all year. Carolina only lost one game last year so that revenge can only be targeted in one direction. Clark humiliated Johnson last year, waiving her off and her leaving her alone on the perimeter. It was so noticeable that Angel Reese commented after LSU won the title that they took that personal (Clark showing up an SEC team). Caitlin has been nothing but complementary towards Raven this weekend, acknowledging the growth in her game over the last year. I would expect Johnson to begin the game playing the length of the floor similarly to what UConn did Friday night.

How will the game be officiated?

Time to be a tin foil hat guy and discuss Iowa and the officiating this tournament. The call at the end of the UConn game was correct, the uproar is just because that call is not made 95% of the time at the end of a critical basketball game and there were several other questionable calls that all went against UConn. I thought the LSU game was fairly officiated. The West Virginia game not so much. I've never seen a team score 16 points in a quarter and only two of those points come from somewhere other than the foul line. Holy Cross and Colorado didn't matter because Iowa handled them easily.

A star getting star treatment is not uncommon. Michael Jordan got it, Duke/UNC stars routinely receive additional leeway from officials in the men's game. Three seconds in the paint must have been changed for Zach Edey to six-to-seven seconds in the paint. Aliyah Boston got away with a lot on the low blocks. Not even the most diehard Iowa fan can tell you Clark doesn't get preferential treatment from the officials. She's routinely allowed to bury shoulders into defenders and use her left arm to create separation. She's a great player and nearly impossible to stop, but when games are officiated like they have been in this tournament, she is impossible to stop. Let's all hope that the players on the court are the only ones that decide today's game.

(Ignore the author’s post in the videos below- we aren’t endorsing their messages- just need video proof)

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Prediction

All the metrics same Carolina. Vegas says Carolina. ESPN's BPI says Carolina. South Carolina is the better team. Outside of Clark, no one on Iowa's team starts in Columbia and Hannah Stuelke is the only other Hawkeye that probably makes the Gamecocks second team. LSU pummeled Iowa in the paint and the glass. If South Carolina can repeat what the Tigers did, they win this game. Carolina is deeper and fresher than Iowa. Caitlin Clark looked exhausted in last season's title game. She's played 40 minutes in three high intensity games thus far in this tournament. UConn made her work hard on every position even when she didn't have the ball. Carolina doesn't always start games fast, they need to do today to apply pressure from the opening tip. The Gamecocks are deeper and fresher. This season, the best team beats the best player. South Carolina 83-77.