Palmetto Bowl Preview: Gamecocks eye upset win over Clemson
What: South Carolina (6-5) at Clemson (10-1)
Where: Memorial Stadium (81,500), Clemson, SC
When: Sat., Nov. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV/Radio: ESPN (Dave Pasch, Greg McElroy, Tom Luginbill); Touchdown Radio Network (Bill Roth, Gino Torretta), Gamecock IMG Sports Network (Todd Ellis, Tommy Suggs, Langston Moore); Sirius 134/XM 201
Having already reached one of its goals for the 2016 season – bowl eligibility – and doubling their win total from a year ago, the Gamecocks now head to the Upstate for the annual Palmetto Bowl looking to snap a 2-game losing streak to Clemson. The Tigers are in the middle of the playoff fight and 24-point favorites, so all the pressure is on them, allowing USC to play loose and free. Will it make a difference? Perhaps.
WHEN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS THE BALL
Coaches want to see constant improvement from their players and USC freshman quarterback Jake Bentley is no different. Saturday marks the second road game of his young career, We’ll find out if he learned any important lessons from the frustrating afternoon at Florida.
What did we learn in Gainesville? That the Palmetto Bowl is all about the Gamecock offense line and how they perform. Shawn Elliott’s unit struggled to block the Gators fast, aggressive and strong defensive front, and Clemson’s defensive front is just as talented, if not more so.
Frankly, unless the Gamecocks hold their own in the trenches, we’ll watch Clemson’s defensive front seven make plays behind the line of scrimmage all night long just as Florida’s front did two weeks ago with five sacks and seven QB pressures.
Clemson is averaging 3.55 sacks and 8.73 tackles for loss per game, so they will get after the quarterback quickly and aggressively. Clemson has 39 sacks so far this year to rank second in the ACC. Carlos Watkins leads the Tigers with 7.5 sacks, the most sacks in a season by a Clemson defensive tackle since Trevor
Pryce had 7.5 in 1996. Clemson team has at least one sack in 41 straight games. Clemson’s last game without a sack was against The Citadel in 2013.
Given time (and when his receivers don’t drop passes), Bentley has demonstrated maturity, uncanny accuracy and an ability to make all the throws, completing 66.2 percent of his passes (86-of-130) for 989 yards with six TDs and one pick.
After struggling at Florida, how much confidence was instilled within the Gamecocks offense after rolling up 44 points and 588 total yards in the win over Western Carolina? Some might chuckle at the comparison, but 18-to-22-year-old young men can be peculiar in that way. The USC offense certainly needed something to go right before the Palmetto Bowl and they got it against a FCS school. Will it have any carryover against Clemson?
The Gamecocks absolutely, positively must be able to run the football. If they can’t, no chance to win. The worst thing you can be against a defense like Clemson’s is one-dimensional because they will simply pin their ears back and relentlessly attack Bentley from all angles.
Freshman Rico Dowdle had a day for the record books against Western Carolina. The true freshman carried 21 times for 226 yards and two scores in the contest, averaging 10.8 yards per carry. Dowdle’s 226 yards rushing was the sixth highest single-game total in school history. He doesn’t need to have that many yards against Clemson for the USC offense to be productive, but how he runs the ball will be critical to the outcome.
While the Clemson offense gets a lot pf publicity, one of the reasons Clemson is ranked No. 4 in the CFB playoff standings entering the Palmetto Bowl has been the level of play on both sides of the ball. Defensively, Clemson is allowing less than 18 points per game (17.9) and ranks ninth in the nation in completion percentage defense. The Tigers are also 13th in total defense.
WHEN CLEMSON HAS THE BALL
Just like the Gamecock offensive line, the USC defense must change how they do things against Clemson. In the last two Palmetto Bowls, the Gamecocks have allowed a staggering 1,006 total yards to quarterback DeShaun Watson and the Tigers.
Watson, who has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 27 straight games, has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,279 yards and 28 touchdowns this season. If he has one negative on his stat line, it’s 13 interceptions, an average of more than one per game.
In two games against the Gamecocks, Watson is 34-of-46 passing (73.9 pct.) for 548 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. His efficiency rating is a stellar 195.5. He has 26 rushes for 127 yards and five touchdowns in the two games. He has accounted for 675 yards of total offense and eight touchdowns overall, four in each game.
As I said, the Gamecocks defense must change the way they do things against Clemson. Any defensive effort comparable to the lackluster performance we saw two years ago in the Upstate won’t get it done. Not even close.
As good as Watson is, he doesn’t do it alone. He is surrounded by plenty of weapons starting with running back Wayne Gallman, who rushed has rushed for 191 and 114 yards against the Gamecocks the past two years.
Wayne Gallman led Clemson with 161 yards rushing last Saturday at Wake Forest for his school record 16th career 100-yard game. He can join exclusive company on Saturday with another 100-yard outing against the Gamecocks. Only one Clemson running back has had three separate 100-yard games vs. the same opponent in a career - Kenny Flowers against Duke from 1983-85.
Watson also has a crowd of receivers to throw to as well, led by Mike Williams with 73 receptions and Artavis Scott with 55. Scott caught TD passes of 53 and 70 yards from Watson two years ago against the Gamecocks. Mike Williams has caught a pass in 15 straight games and 24 of last 25, while Scott has caught a pass in 34 straight games and at least three in 19 straight.
Jordan Leggett is a weapon from the tight end spot as well with 31 receptions. Six Clemson receivers have 26+ receptions for the Tigers.
While tackling has been an issue lately, the Gamecock defense has done two things very well this season – force turnovers and stop opponents in the red zone. They have forced three or more turnovers in four of the last five games with 24 takeaways on the season. The Gamecocks are tied for first in the SEC and tied for sixth in the country in turnovers forced.
The Gamecocks rank fifth in the SEC and 10th in the nation in red zone defense, allowing points just 70.7 percent of the time. In 41 chances, USC has allowed just 21 TDs and eight field goals, while forcing a league-high six turnovers in the red zone.
SYPNOSIS: AS we’ve said, it will take an ‘A’’ effort on all sides of the ball for the Gamecocks to have a chance to win this game. Except for the second halves at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, USC has not played well on the road in 2016, and have dropped 9 of their last 10 true road games. And now they face their archrival at their place. The young Gamecocks must grow up quickly, especially on offense. Clemson has weapons all over field on both sides of the ball. The defense needs to get some stops and tackle. The No. 1 factor in the Gamecocks favor? They have zero pressure on them. Few analysts expect them to win. So, there is no excuse not to go out and play loose. The offensive line must play their best game of the season. The Gamecocks will put forth a feisty effort, but the talent gap is too much to overcome.
PREDICTION: Clemson 37, Gamecocks 21
