Preview: Gamecocks aim to become first team to topple Texas A&M
What: Texas A&M (4-0) at South Carolina (2-2)
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC 29201
When: Sat., Oct. 1, 4 p.m. ET
TV/Radio: SEC Network (Dave Neal, Matt Stinchcomb, Olivia Harlan); Gamecock IMG Sports Network (Todd Ellis, Tommy Suggs, Langston Moore); Sirius 126/XM 192
South Carolina returns to Columbia for the first of five straight home games against permanent cross-divisional opponent Texas A&M, whose perfect start has some people believing they could challenge Alabama for SEC West supremacy. The Gamecocks are looking for their first ever win in three tries against Texas A&M. The 2014 meeting in Columbia marked the first time the two schools had met on the gridiron. They were named permanent SEC cross-division rivals after Texas A&M and Missouri were added to the league. Last year’s trip was South Carolina’s first to College Station and the school’s first venture into the state of Texas since 1976. When Texas A&M joined the SEC, recruiting analysts wondered if the doors to the recruiting rich Lone Star State would open up to SEC East schools. Right now, the Gamecocks feature two players on the 2016 roster from Texas: placekicker Elliot Fry (Frisco, Tex.) and Morgan Vest (Leander, Tex.)
WHEN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS THE BALL
The question has been asked and answered many times over the past two weeks. Brandon McIlwain is South Carolina’s starting quarterback unless he performs so poorly Will Muschamp has no choice but to change quarterbacks.
Sure, the performance by the Gamecocks offense at Kentucky fell far short of expectations, but McIlwain was not alone. Just about every offensive position failed to some degree. Quarterback, though, is the most visible and, as always, gets too much credit and too much blame for anything that happens.
Where does the Gamecock offense go from here? The good news is barring a total collapse, there is no place to go but up. The bad news is the Texas A&M defense looks vastly improved over previous seasons. Just two years ago, the Aggies finished last in the SEC in total defense before Kevin Sumlin shook things up and stole defensive coordinator John Chavis away from LSU for a tidy sum.
Perhaps McIlwain’s biggest problem – and one he didn’t create – is the alarming lack pf playmakers around him, especially at wide receiver. Deebo Samuel was supposed to be USC’s top receiver in 2016, but he has essentially played five quarters of football after sitting out the East Carolina and Kentucky games with long lingering hamstring issues.
With Samuel out, USC has two weapons in the passing game – tight end Hayden Hurst and WR Bryan Edwards. However, Edwards is currently a game time decision because of an injury along with Samuel. If either one can’t play, Muschamp’s options in the passing game will be severely limited. That, of course, plays right into the hands of a Texas A&M secondary led by a pair of safeties likely to play someday in the NFL (Armani Watts and Justin Evans).
If the Gamecocks are unable to throw the football, they could rely more on two tight end sets with Hurst, KC Crosby and Jacob August involved and simply try to run the football with A.J. Turner and David Williams handling the ball carrying duties.
When McIlwain drops back to pass, he must hope the offensive tackles are able to keep All-American defensive ends Myles Garrett (probably a Top 10 NFL draft pick) and Daeshon Hall out of the backfield. Typically, they wreak havoc, meaning left tackle Mason Zandi and whoever plays right tackle (Blake Camper returns from a two-game absence) must play their best game of the season.
One statistic to keep an eye on: third down conversion percentage. The Gamecocks must put together some long drives and try to keep the explosive Texas A&M offense off the field. They converted just 6-of-25 third down opportunities (24.0 percent) against East Carolina and Kentucky. That percentage must increase significantly for the Gamecocks to have any chance of winning the game.
WHEN TEXAS A&M HAS THE BALL
Kevin Sumlin faced a dilemma after last season. Both five star quarterbacks (Kyler Murray and Kyle Allen) on the roster had informed him they intended to transfer. Murray headed to Oklahoma, while Allen transferred to Houston, citing the ‘Johnny Manziel Culture’ at Texas A&M as the primary reason for leaving the school.
Sumlin desperately needed a quarterback. If not, a true freshman might end up as the starting signal caller.
That’s when, like manna from heaven, graduate transfer Trevor Knight fell into his lap. Knight, a former Oklahoma quarterback best known for leading the Sooners to a BCS bowl win over Alabama, chose Texas A&M over several other schools to play his final season of college football.
So far, Knight has been a revelation, throwing for 1,055 yards and seven touchdowns in four games while completing 53.2 percent (75-141) of his passes. Only sacked twice, Knight has stayed upright all season, enabling him to fire the football around the field to one of the most talented receiver groups in the SEC.
Christian Kirk (21 receptions), Josh Reynolds (17), Ricky Seal-Jones (10) and Speedy Noil (6) are more than willing to share the spotlight, and the football. Their talent is a major reason Texas A&M have 27 plays (almost 4.0 per game) of 20 yards or more, including 12 plays over 35 yards. The scary part? Those 27 rush/pass plays of 20+ yards have been made by 11 different players.
Here’s the tricky part about defending Texas A&M: the Aggies are capable of running the football just as well as they throw it. Led by true freshman Trayveon Williams (389 yards in 4 games; 97.2 ypg), Texas A&M leads the SEC in rushing, averaging 269.2 yards per game, and has opened 2016 with four-straight 200-yard plus rushing performances for the first time since 1997. Last week, they amassed 366 rushing yards in the win over Arkansas, basically beating the Hogs at their own game.
How balanced is the Texas A&M offense? They have run the football 153 times and passed it 153 times in the first four games. Judging by their yardage totals, the Aggies are doing an excellent job keeping opposing defenses off-balance. Texas A&M is the lone SEC team with more than 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards passing, and one of only three schools nationally to achieve the feat (Louisville and Oregon are the other two).
It goes without saying that the Gamecocks defense has its hands full trying to contain a Texas A&M offense averaging 43.0 points per game. USC is fifth in the SEC in scoring defense (17.2 ppg), but has allowed nearly 400 total yards per game to rank 11th in the SEC in that category. It’s a classic ‘bend, but don’t break’ philosophy.
SYNOPSIS: Remember when Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin was supposedly on the hot seat a few months ago? But the Aggies’ 4-0 start has silenced the critics. For now. Of course, the criticism will return with a loss to the Gamecocks. But the Aggies are a solid football team with a graduate transfer at quarterback, a load of receivers, NFL caliber offensive linemen, the best defensive end in college football and a secondary filled with exceptional athletes. Considering the current state of the Gamecock offense, envisioning USC scoring more than 13 or 14 points is hallucinatory. The Aggies simply have too many weapons on both sides of the ball. It should be closer than two years ago when Texas A&M ran the Gamecocks out of the building, but a significant gap between the teams still exists.
PREDICTION: Texas A&M 34, Gamecocks 13.
