Published Oct 29, 2016
Preview: Gamecocks-Tennessee renew closest SEC rivalry
Scott Hood  •  GamecockScoop
GamecockCentral.com

What: Tennessee (5-2) at South Carolina (3-4)

Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC

When: Sat., Oct. 29, 7:15 ET

TV/Radio: ESPN2 (Mark Jones, Rod Gilmore, Quint Kessenich); Gamecock IMG Sports Network (Todd Ellis, Tommy Suggs, Langston Moore); Sirius 93/XM 191

ALSO SEE: Carolina Confidential - Inside gameday scoop on South Carolina-Tennessee | Visitors list - Who is set to be in town for tonight's game? | Breaking down the keys - The panel discusses keys to victory

After snapping a three-game losing streak last weekend, the Gamecocks now look to halt an exasperating streak of heartbreaking losses to Tennessee, which is coming off a bye. Neither head coach has lost to the other program as Will Muschamp was 4-0 against the Vols when he was at Florida, while Butch Jones is 3-0 against the Gamecocks, all down-to-the-wire games in which USC stumbled at the finish. Recent history has not been kind to the Gamecocks in this rivalry. Will Saturday prove different? This is the fourth of five straight home games for the Gamecocks.

WHEN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS THE BALL

Believing the Gamecocks needed to upgrade the downfield passing attack, Muschamp burned Jake Bentley’s redshirt last week and the true freshman completed 17-of-26 passes for 201 yards and two nicely thrown fade passes into the end zone.

But Muschamp didn’t forget about Brandon McIlwain either. McIlwain, who must improve his deep passing skills if he wants to beat out Bentley for the starting job, came on to run the Wildcat in short yardage situations and carried five times for 17 yards without attempting a pass.

McIlwain aside, all the buzz surrounding the Gamecocks offense is centered on Bentley, who has impressed coaches and his teammates with his maturity, confidence and calmness in his first five months with the program. His personality was reflected in his debut performance as the big Williams-Brice Stadium stage didn’t seem to bother him at all.

However, the world’s worst kept secret is the Tennessee defense Bentley will face Saturday night is a heckuva lot more talented than UMass even though the Vols rank just ninth in the SEC in total defense (426.3 ypg) and have been torn apart on the ground by Texas A&M (353 rushing yards) and Alabama (438) in their last two games.

The Gamecocks' running game seemingly got on track for the first time all season in last weekend’s win over UMass, amassing a season-high 194 yards on 44 carries against the Minutemen. It marked just the second time this season USC gained more than 121 yards on the ground, and the first time they totaled more rushing yards than the opponent.

With A.J. Turner hobbled by an injury (he made a brief appearance vs. UMass), Rico Dowdle (87 yards) and David Williams (69 yards, 2 TDs) handled the run game responsibilities. With Turner back healthy, will the Gamecocks shift to a three running back attack or stick with a two-man crew as they have in most games this season? Last Saturday marked the first time all season two running backs each had 10+ carries in the same game. What will happen when you add a third RB into the mix?

Last week we finally saw what sophomore WR Deebo Samuel is capable of when he is healthy as he posted career highs in receptions (8) and receiving yards (106). Half of his 16 receptions this season have come against SEC opponents. The trio of Samuel, Bryan Edwards and tight end Hayden Hurst is certainly capable of being one of the most formidable in the SEC.

Muschamp talked all week about USC proving it can contain Tennessee defensive end Derek Barnett, who has terrorized the Gamecocks the past couple of years with 13 tackles, 5 tackles for loss and 4 sacks in two career games against the Gamecocks. How good is Barnett? He owns an impressive 26.0 sacks and 44.5 TFLs for his career. Even more remarkably, 23.0 of those sacks and 33.5 of those TFLs have come in SEC play. Barnett’s career 23.0 sacks in SEC play alone would rank inside the top five on the active list of FBS career sack leaders.

Junior linebacker and former walk-on Colton Jumper has racked up 32 total tackles over the last four games and now ranks second on the Vols in total tackles with 42. Jumper has recorded double-digit tackles in two of his last three games, posting a career-high 11 tackles at Georgia. Jumper has paced the Vols in tackles in three of the last four games, all against SEC competition.

WHEN TENNESSEE HAS THE BALL

Perhaps the key reason most media analysts picked Tennessee to win the SEC East was senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs’ experience. While most teams in the division broke in new starting quarterbacks, Dobbs returned for his third year as UT’s starting signal caller.

Dobbs is set to make his 30th career start for the Vols on Saturday. An aerospace engineering major, he is currently fourth in Tennessee history in total yards (7,401) and is the only player in Tennessee history to amass 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in the same game. He has accomplished the feat twice - at USC in 2014 and again against Georgia in 2015. In Dobbs’ last 25 starts, Tennessee is 18-2 when he rushes for more than 20 yards.

Despite Dobbs’ exploits, the Tennessee offense is situated in the middle of the SEC rankings in most statistical categories – seventh in scoring offense (30.4), 10th in rushing offense (169.6), 11th in total offense (393.6) and seventh in passing offense (224.0 ypg).

The chess match between Dobbs and a Gamecocks defense allowing just 21.3 points per game and ranked seventh in the SEC in total defense (394.7), second in pass defense (183.6) and fourth in red zone defense (69.0 percent scoring rate by opponents; SEC-high 5 red zone turnovers) promises to be an intriguing battle. USC’s 14 turnovers forced is topped by only four other SEC teams.

In the absence of second-leading rusher Alvin Kamara (313 yards on 64 carries), who suffered a knee injury against Alabama two weekends ago, 6-foot-4, 240-pound junior Jalen Hurd promises to get the bulk of the carries against a Gamecocks defense ranked 10th in the SEC (211.1 yards) against the run. Kamara is also tied for the team lead in receptions (22), so his absence will be felt on two levels.

Last year Hurd became the first true sophomore in Tennessee’s history to rush for more than 1,000 yards in a single season as he finished the year with a career-best 1,288 yards. His numbers have dipped slightly in 2016 as he entered Saturday’s game with 435 rushing yards on 114 carries. However, that is a product of Kamara’s emergence and Tennessee’s growing reliance upon Dobbs’ passing skills.

Hurd, the seventh-leading rusher in Tennessee history with 2,622 yards in three years, needs just 55 yards against the Gamecocks to move into fifth place above Jamal Lewis (1997-99). He requires 457 more yards to become Tennessee’s all-time leading rusher, surpassing Travis Henry (1997-2000) for the honor.

Kamara’s absence elevates 5-foot-9, 212-pound sophomore John Kelly to the No. 2 running back role. He carried 13 times for 89 yards filling in for the absent Hurd in the Oct. 8 OT loss at Texas A&M.

Tennessee has adopted a ‘pass catcher by committee’ approach in 2016 with three players grabbing between 20 and 22 receptions. Kamara is one of those players, but he won’t play. Thus, Dobbs will look more for Josh Malone (22 receptions for 402 yards + 5 TDs), and Jauan Jennings (20 receptions + 3 TDs + caught Hail Mary pass to beat Georgia). No other Tennessee receiver has more than 10 receptions entering Week 9.

SYNOPSIS: Two interesting Tennessee trends could be significant factors in this game. First, the Vols have fumbled 21 times in the first seven games (3.0 per game). Second, Tennessee has fallen behind early in games and have been outscored 119-65 in the first half only to come roaring back in the second half. So, if USC jumps out to an early lead, it must be able to withstand UT’s inevitable second half surge. A win would keep the Vols on track for a 10-win season in Butch Jones’s fourth year at the helm as UT doesn’t leave the state of Tennessee for their final four games - three straight at home vs. Tennessee Tech, Kentucky and Missouri + rivalry “road” game at Vanderbilt in the regular season finale (as always, there will be more UT supporters in the stands than Vandy fans). Two aspects give the Vols the edge: 1) QB experience weighs heavily in favor of Dobbs; 2) The Vols enjoyed a bye last weekend, so they should be well rested. Between Dobbs, Hurd and Barnett, Tennessee has too much talent on both sides for the rebuilding Gamecocks. Historically, this has been one of the closest SEC series with the last four games decided by a total of 11 points. Thus, another close game wouldn’t be a surprise.

PREDICTION: Tennessee 27, Gamecocks 16

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