Who: #1 South Carolina (33-0) vs #8 seed North Carolina (20-12). Columbia, SC.
Time/TV: 1:00 pm on ABC.
Line: SC -21.5. Total 135.5
History: North Carolina leads 11-10. The series is tied 4-4 in the Dawn Staley era. UNC won four of the first five matchups. Carolina has now won three in a row. The Gamecocks are 2-1 against the Tar Heels in the NCAA Tournament. The wins came in 2015, en route to the program’s first NCAA Final Four appearance, and in 2022, en route to the program’s second NCAA Championship. UNC hasn't played South Carolina in Columbia since 1989. The Gamecocks hold a 2-1 advantage in Columbia.
Last Meeting: November 30, 2023. South Carolina 65-58. The Tar Heels gave Carolina their stiffest test of the pre-conference portion of the schedule. The Heels led at the half but Carolina opened up the second half with a 21-12 third quarter. The Gamecocks hit 6-of-11 3-point attempts while the Heels only connected on 4-of-21 attempts. Surprisingly, the smaller Heels kept the game close by out-rebounded the Gamecocks 45-39, with an even more surprisingly 15-6 edge of the offensive glass. Bree Hall led Carolina with 15 points, shooting five-of-six from the field.
Scouting the Tar Heels
In the first round, North Carolina led Michigan State 50-35 with 6:18 remaining in the contest and by 12 with 2:22 remaining. Yet the Spartans sent UNC to free throw line with a single point lead five seconds left. The Heels missed their second attempt to grabbed the offense board to preserve the win. UNC enjoyed an 18 rebound advantage on the glass. All of them were needed because UNC shot only 44.4% from the line.
North Carolina plays extremely hard and will harass opponents throughout the game. “They played really hard,” said Chloe Kitts. “They rebounded a lot last game until the end of the game they had more rebounds than us. We know we need to not overlook them and try to stop their transition and just play as hard as we can.”
The Heels will only play a six-player rotation. UNC backcourt has suffered two season ending injuries. The fatigue has been noticeable on star Deja Kelly. Kelly's scoring number have decreased over the month of the season, with her shooting percentage also plummeting. She still averages 16.6 points a game. The majority of her game is driving to lane and getting to the line. She was effective in the November matchup, getting Kamilla Cardoso to foul out.
Lexi Dornaski is the Heels best three point threat. She is connecting on 34% of her attempts this season. As a team the Heels have a bunch of "ok" shooters, but there isn't one player that strikes fear in opponents hearts with their 3-point ability. Alyssa Ustby was the toughest matchup for the Gamecocks last time out. Utsby is 6'1, but played like she was 6'5, routinely out-hustling the Carolina interior players for loose balls and offensive rebounds. She went for 18 points and 12 rebounds in the November game.
“North Carolina is going to be a challenge for us, no doubt about it,” Dawn Staley said. They have been during the last two postseason meetings. North Carolina was the Gamecocks most difficult game on way to the 2022 National Championship.
For the Gamecocks
Bree Hall and Cardoso are expected back today. Hall said that she wasn't feeling well on Friday and thus wasn't with the team as a precaution. As noted above, both players had big roles in the Gamecocks' November win in Chapel Hill. Today could be Cardoso's last game in Columbia as a Gamecock. Te-Hina Paopao has announced that she is returning for her Covid-senior season. The Gamecocks haven't lost a home NCAA Tournament game under Dawn Staley. As long as there aren't prolonged defensive lapses and the Gamecocks keep UNC off the offense glass, they should advance.
Prediction:
North Carolina keeps it close for two and a half quarters, then the Gamecocks superior depth takes over. The Gamecocks haven't been good lately with closing out opponents, they fix that today. Gamecocks 79-63.
