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SEC Bowl Projections - First edition

It looks likely Will Muschamp will lead the Gamecocks to a bowl game in his 1st year as coach.
It looks likely Will Muschamp will lead the Gamecocks to a bowl game in his 1st year as coach. (Gamecock Central)

We’re heading into the second November Saturday of college football, which means bowl talk is heating up.

That fact, together with South Carolina (5-4 overall, 3-4 SEC) moving to the cusp of attaining bowl eligibility as a result of Saturday’s 31-21 victory over Missouri, promises to make the next few weeks intriguing as teams jockey for bowl positioning.

When you factor the four-team College Football Playoff (Fiesta and Peach Bowls are semifinals; national championship game is Jan. 9 in Tampa) and the four CFP access bowls (Cotton, Orange, Sugar, Rose) into the equation, the SEC’s bowl picture is divided into four tiers:

1. College Football Playoff + Access Bowls;

2. Citrus Bowl (Orlando, Fla.);

3. Pool of Six Bowls;

4. Last Two Bowls.

Frankly, any four-team playoff prediction without Alabama is silly as the Crimson Tide are, yet again, the most dominant team in the country. Their suffocating defense was on full display Saturday in Baton Rouge as they blanked LSU, 10-0.

The two teams could have played four more quarters and the Tigers wouldn’t have come close to scoring. LSU never penetrated the red zone and totaled just 125 yards as RB Leonard Fournette (17 carries, 35 yards) was swarmed under by the Alabama defense for the second straight year.

Yet, Alabama still might win the SEC West. The Nov. 26 Iron Bowl will likely decide the race unless Auburn (7-2 overall, 5-1 SEC) trips up at Georgia Saturday and sees its seven-game winning streak halted. Not likely against a mediocre Bulldogs team.

Without a doubt, the stakes will be sky high for the Iron Bowl (the game is in Tuscaloosa, so give the edge to Alabama). Always are. However, both teams are likely to play in one of the six CFP bowls. Alabama is ticketed for the four-team playoff, while Auburn was No. 9 in last week’s playoff rankings and should rise another spot this week after No. 4 Texas A&M lost at Mississippi State.

So, put Alabama in the Playoff and Auburn in the Sugar Bowl.

Citrus Bowl? Texas A&M is the clear favorite at this point with a favorable schedule down the stretch, especially the next two weeks hosting Ole Miss (QB Chad Kelley is out for the season with an ACL injury) and Texas-San Antonio. Thus, the Aggies could be 9-2 heading into the Thanksgiving Day season finale vs. LSU, which will play in College Station five days after hosting Florida on Nov. 19 in Baton Rouge in the controversial makeup game.

Heck, if the Aggies run the table and finish 10-2, they could be a contender for one of the CFP access bowls. Remember, unlike the hideous BCS system, which artificially restricted the number of teams from any one conference, there is no limit on the number of teams from any one conference that can be selected to participate in one of the six CFP bowls.

Once the Citrus Bowl picks a team, six bowl games (Outback, TaxSlayer, Music City, Texas, Belk, Liberty) supposedly equal in stature and payouts work in consultation with the SEC office and the schools involved to make bowl assignments from the eligible SEC teams.

Five of the six ‘pool bowls’ are slated for a four-day period from Dec. 28 through Dec. 31, while the Outback Bowl is Jan. 2 in Tampa.

So, will the ‘eligible’ SEC teams slotted into these six bowl games? Start with the Gamecocks. Their current three-game winning streak has put them on the cusp of earning bowl eligibility in Will Muschamp’s first season as coach, a scenario few analysts predicted in August.

The complexion of Saturday’s USC-Florida noon game at the Swamp changed considerably Monday when Gators coach Jim McElwain announced starting quarterback Luke Del Rio is sidelined ‘indefinitely’ after incurring a serious right shoulder injury in Saturday’s 31-10 loss at Arkansas.

Backup quarterback Austin Appleby, a graduate transfer from Purdue, will make his third start of the season for the Gators.

Will that development help the Gamecocks? We’ll find out Saturday.

However, the Florida defense is still extremely talented and probably the second-best unit in the SEC behind Alabama.

Even if USC falls shorts in Gainesville, the Gamecocks should pick up the coveted sixth win on Nov. 19 against Western Carolina, enveloping the program in optimism heading into the Nov. 26 Palmetto Bowl.

Geographically, the Belk Bowl makes sense for the Gamecocks, but we saw the animosity the Charlotte-based bowl had for USC two years ago. And the Gamecocks open the 2017 season against NC State at Bank of America Stadium, so the Gamecocks going to Charlotte is unlikely unless the SEC office engages in a lot of painful arm twisting.

Also, if Belk Bowl officials are able to procure a matchup between Georgia and Miami for their game, they would so in a millisecond as Hurricanes coach Mark Richt facing his old team would create enormous bowl buzz.

Missouri suffered its seventh loss Saturday, making the Tigers bowl ineligible for the second straight year after consecutive SEC East titles in 2013-14.

Vanderbilt (4-5), Ole Miss (4-5) and Mississippi State (4-5) could join the Tigers in staying home for the Holidays. Saturday’s road game vs. Missouri is critical for Vanderbilt, a virtual must-win for the Commodores. After that, a potential bowl-elimination game vs. Ole Miss in Nashville on Nov. 19.

Ole Miss, meanwhile, faces the prospect of playing out the remainder of the schedule without its starting quarterback. Three challenging games await the Rebels, the next two on the road at Texas A&M and Vandy. Unless the backup comes ready to play, Ole Miss could enter the Egg Bowl already bowl ineligible.

Same for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs kept their flickering bowl hopes alive with the upset win over Texas A&M, but now they must go to Tuscaloosa (loss) and host Arkansas over the next two weeks. They could also be 4-7 heading into the Egg Bowl.

Five-win Kentucky (5-4 overall) should get bowl eligible after allowing a golden opportunity to seize sole possession of first place in the SEC East slip through their fingers with Saturday night’s last-second 27-24 loss to Georgia. The Wildcats travel to Tennessee this Saturday before hosting FCS Austin Peay on Nov. 19. Then comes the Bluegrass State rivalry with Louisville.

Complicating the SEC bowl picture at the ‘Pool of Six Bowls” level is four or five teams could finish 6-6. The Gamecocks, Georgia, Kentucky and LSU must battle to surpass six wins, while Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Miss. State could join them based on results of games over the next three weeks.

If Alabama and Auburn both play in one of the six CFB playoff bowls, the SEC could find itself unable to meet its full bowl quota. The Independence Bowl in Shreveport has last choice after the Birmingham Bowl.

In that case, pencil in Kentucky for the Birmingham Bowl unless Vanderbilt gets to six wins.

SEC BOWL PROJECTIONS (After Week 10)

Four-Team Playoff: Alabama

Sugar: Auburn

Citrus (Orlando): Texas A&M

Outback (Tampa): Tennessee

TaxSlayer (Jacksonville): Florida

Music City (Nashville): South Carolina

Texas (Houston): LSU

Belk (Charlotte): Georgia

Liberty: Arkansas

Birmingham: Kentucky

Independence: Vanderbilt/Egg Bowl winner or Vacant

Which SEC teams will go bowling in 2016?
Which SEC teams will go bowling in 2016? (Twitter)
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