SEC Bowl Projections - Second Edition
Don’t look now but the SEC is in deep trouble in terms of this season's College Football Playoff bowl structure, a potpourri of the four-team playoff (semifinals at Peach and Fiesta Bowls + national championship game) and four access bowls (Cotton, Orange, Sugar, Rose).
Tuesday night’s unveiling of the latest playoff selection committee rankings wasn’t sympathetic in any way, shape or form to the SEC. After No. 1 Alabama, the league does not have another team in the top 14 of the standings.
Auburn tumbled six spots in the standings after losing to cross-divisional rival Georgia last Saturday night in Athens. That outcome could wind up damaging the SEC’s major bowl prospects.
Regrettably, the SEC is the lone Power 5 conference with just one team ranked in the Top 14. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have 4 each, Big 12 has 3 and ACC 2.
Barring an upset in the Iron Bowl or Dec. 3 SEC championship game, Alabama is guaranteed a spot in the four-team playoff. At this point, the Crimson Tide could make the playoff even with a single loss.
With two weeks left in the regular season, the highest ranked SEC team in the CFB standings behind Alabama is Auburn at No. 15 followed by LSU (16), Tennessee (19), Florida (23) and Texas A&M (25).
How wide is the divide between Alabama and the rest of the SEC? Here is how the conference stacks up in terms of overall victories:
10: Alabama
9: None
8: None
7: Auburn, Texas A&M, Florida, Tennessee;
6: Georgia, LSU, Arkansas
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5: Kentucky, South Carolina, Ole Miss
4: Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bowl Ineligible: Missouri (3-7)
Auburn has a layup this Saturday vs. Alabama A&M before the Iron Bowl. Hence, Auburn has little chance of penetrating the top 12 in the final rankings, which will be released on Sunday, Dec. 4.
SEC’s best bet for a second team in an access bowl? LSU. The Bayou Bengals are only 6-3, but they face two Top 25 teams in the last two weeks – Florida (No. 23) and struggling Texas A&M (No. 25). Win those two games and LSU has a shot.
Tennessee? The Vols will likely finish the regular season at 9-3 considering their final two games are against Missouri and Vanderbilt. If Florida loses to LSU and the Vols take care of business against two lowly foes with a combined record of 2-10, Tennessee wins the SEC East.
However, the Vols face two major hurdles in their quest for a Top 12 spot: 1) they are unlikely to earn much credit from the committee for beating bottom feeders Mizzou and Vandy; and 2) if they win the SEC East, the last impression the committee would have of the Vols is the SEC championship game matchup with Alabama. The two long-time rivals met a month ago in Knoxville and the Tide prevailed, 49-10. Nothing suggests the outcome on Dec. 3 at the Georgia Dome would be any different.
Florida faces LSU and Florida State in its final two home games, so its prospects of moving up the standings are remote. Texas A&M has an easy game Saturday vs. Texas-San Antonio, but faces LSU on Thanksgiving weekend with a backup quarterback. Even if they win both games, the Aggies have little chance to ascend into the Top 12.
The bottom line for the SEC: since every team except Alabama will likely finish the season with at least three losses, the most likely scenario for the conference is being left out in the cold on Selection Sunday (Dec. 4) while other Power 5 conferences put multiple teams into the four-team playoff and access bowls.
Again, the SEC’s bowl scenario is divided into four tiers:
1. College Football Playoff + Access Bowls;
2. Citrus Bowl (Orlando, Fla.);
3. Pool of Six Bowls (Belk, Liberty, Music City, Outback, TaxSlayer, Texas);
4. Final Two Bowls (Birmingham, Independence).
What happens if the SEC gets just one team (Alabama) into the CFP playoff and everybody else would fall into the Pool of 6 bowls + the Final Two Bowls? The No. 2 team would land in the Citrus Bowl. Right now, LSU is in the driver's seat with Tennessee riding in the vehicle.
After those two schools would come a gaggle of 7- and 8-win teams, among them Georgia (could finish 8-4), Auburn (8-4?), Texas A&M (likely 8-4) and Arkansas (likely 8-4). The SEC could have five or six eight-win teams when Selection Sunday arrives.
Remember, the Pool of 6 Bowls do not select in any particular order. Instead, the spots are filled in consultation with the conference office and the eligible schools involved.
Result? Bowl chaos.
Week 12 features four conference matchups, all of which will impact the SEC’s bowl picture: Florida at LSU (makeup of game postponed by Hurricane Matthew), Missouri at Tennessee, Arkansas at Mississippi State and Ole Miss at Vanderbilt.
The latter game is huge. If Vanderbilt wins, it could get bowl eligible with an upset victory over in-state rival Tennessee and the Nov. 26 Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State would become a desperate must-win situation for the Rebels, which boosted its bowl hopes with a stunning 29-28 come-from-behind win at Texas A&M last Saturday.
Missouri is already bowl ineligible, and could be joined Saturday in the ‘Home for the Holidays’ Club by Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.
Where do the Gamecocks land? If they finish 6-6 (anything better requires a huge road upset of Clemson), they are unlikely to slide into one of the ‘Pool of 6’ Bowls because all the teams headed to those games would have seven or eight wins.
That leaves Birmingham or Shreveport. Pencil the Gamecocks into an outing at dilapidated Legion Field with Ole Miss heading to Shreveport after a highly disappointing season without their starting quarterback.
The SEC’s dilemma if it put just one team into the CFB playoff bowl system is the conference could have 10 bowl eligible teams for nine conference-affiliated bowls spots. Hence, one team (Kentucky?) might have to go searching for an at-large berth. However, the Gamecocks might also be the team left out based on the infamous back room politicking synonymous with bowl games.
SEC BOWL PROJECTIONS (After Week 11)
Four-Team Playoff: Alabama
Citrus (Orlando): LSU
Outback (Tampa): Tennessee
TaxSlayer (Jacksonville): Florida
Music City (Nashville): Georgia
Texas (Houston): Texas A&M
Belk (Charlotte): Auburn
Liberty (Memphis): Arkansas
Birmingham (Birmingham): South Carolina
Independence (Shreveport): Ole Miss
At-Large: Kentucky
Bowl Ineligible: Missouri, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt.
