USC-UF Preview: Gamecocks face first road test since late September
What: South Carolina (5-4) at Florida (6-2)
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL.
When: Sat., Nov. 12, noon ET
TV/Radio: CBS (Brad Nessler, Aaron Taylor, John Schriffen); Gamecock IMG Sports Network (Todd Ellis, Tommy Suggs, Langston Moore); Sirius 108/XM 191
After five consecutive home games, South Carolina hits the road for the first time since late September as it travels to a place where it has won two of the last three games – The Swamp in Gainesville – after a history of futility before 2010. The main storyline for this week has been Will Muschamp returning to Florida for the first time since being fired by the Gators at the end of the 2014 season. Ironically, the final nail in his UF coaching coffin was USC’s dramatic OT victory two years ago in Gainesville. Will Muschamp get revenge? The CBS cameras will be there for the spectacle.
ALSO SEE: Inside insight on the Florida Gators | Carolina Confidential - The latest on several top targets | Insider roundtable: Breaking down the keys to a Gamecocks' win | Comparing Rico Dowdle to No. 21
WHEN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS THE BALL
After we mercifully just witnessed the end of a marathon election season, could Jake Bentley get elected as mayor of Columbia right now? Perhaps.
Without a doubt, the true freshman from Opelika, Ala., and son of the Gamecocks running backs coach has given the USC offense the jolt it badly needed a month ago following the home loss to Georgia. Bentley improved to 3-0 as the starter last weekend by completing 22-of-28 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Missouri.
In three games, Bentley has completed 54-of-74 passes (a 73.0 percent completion percentage) for 622 yards and six touchdowns with zero interceptions. In short, Bentley has made few glaring mistakes, a remarkable feat for somebody who should be a senior in high school.
As well as Bentley has played, his first three games all came at Williams-Brice Stadium. Now he must prove he can perform at the same high level on the road in one of the toughest environments in the league. The noon kickoff, though, could work to his advantage.
Here’s the kicker about the Gamecocks’ offensive surge in the past three games (points per game have more than doubled from 14.0 to 29.7) with Bentley at the controls: the No. 1 running back is a true freshman as well. Rico Dowdle has positively impacted the Gamecock running game as much as Bentley as improved the passing attack. He has taken the bulk of the carries during the three-game winning streak after missing the first four games with a sports hernia and groin ailment.
In the last three games, Dowdle has carried 70 times for 363 yards (5.19 yards per carry). He has back-to-back games of 27 carries for more than 100 yards - 127 yards versus Tennessee and a career-high 149 yards against Missouri. He leads the team with five touchdowns despite playing just five of the first nine games.
The third member of USC’s new offensive triumvirate? Wide receiver Deebo Samuel. Is it a coincidence the Gamecock offense has gotten healthy at the same time as Samuel? Probably not.
After a hamstring injury limited him to just four receptions for 66 yards in the season’s first five games, Samuel has hauled in 29 passes for 404 yards in the last four contests. He has logged at least eight catches in each of the last three games with two 100-yard receiving games. He had the best game of his career last Saturday when he caught nine passes for 125 yards against Missouri.
Samuel’s numbers over the past three games since Bentley became the starting QB? Twenty-five receptions for 314 yards. Clearly, Bentley-to-Samuel has suddenly become one of the best QB-WR combinations in the SEC.
As productive as Bentley, Dowdle and Samuel have been over the past three games, maintaining those levels will be challenging against a Florida defense that statistically is the second best in the SEC behind Alabama.
However, the Gators will be missing some important pieces on defense. Linebackers Alex Anzalone (broken arm) and Jarrad Davis (ankle), the top two tacklers on the team, are out because of injuries. Their replacements? Freshman David Reese and redshirt freshman Kylan Johnson are expected to start at linebacker.
The dilemma for the Gators? Davis (56 tackles) and Anzalone (53) have combined for 109 tackles in eight games. Reese (20) and Johnson (13) have combined for 33.
Making matters worse, sophomore defensive end CeCe Jefferson (foot) is described as "highly doubtful" for Saturday's matchup in The Swamp. Jefferson (19 tackles, 3.0 TFL) sits among Florida’s leaders in QB pressures (5).
Led by cornerbacks Quincy Wilson and Teez Tabor, and safety Marcus Maye (49 tackles, 5 PBU), the Florida secondary has proven tough to throw on this season. Wilson and Tabor are ball hawks, combining for seven interceptions.
WHEN FLORIDA HAS THE BALL
With eight TD passes and eight INTs in six games, it wasn’t as if Luke Del Rio was tearing through opposing defenses. After all, while he was averaging 226.3 yards per game (fourth in the SEC), he doesn’t appear in the top 10 in passing efficiency among SEC quarterbacks.
A serious shoulder injury suffered in last Saturday’s three-touchdown loss at Arkansas has apparently ended Del Rio’s season, so the Gators turn to Purdue graduate transfer Austin Appleby, who will be making his third start of the season. He previously started at Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Against the Vols in Knoxville, he threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns on 23-of-39 passing. He followed that with a pedestrian 19-of-28, 144-yard performance at Vanderbilt. This will be Appleby’s first home start of the 2016 season.
Florida relies on a running back by committee approach with rushing leader Jordan Scarlett (483 yards) averaging just 12.3 carries per game. Scarlett is the running back of choice in the red zone as seen by his team-leading six touchdowns. Lamical Perine (336 yards on 66 carries) and Mark Thompson (281 yards on 60 carries) also have major roles in the ground game.
Same at wide receiver with the top three pass catchers within four receptions of each other led by Antonio Callaway (31 receptions for 485 yards; 15.6 yards per catch), DeAndre Goolsby (28) and Brandon Powell (27). Callaway, clearly the top deep threat, is the third-fastest player in Florida football history to reach 1,000 receiving yards for his career, doing so in just 17 games.
Callaway racked up 134 receiving yards against Tennessee on just four catches, making him one of 11 players in the country and one of two SEC players this year to amass 130-plus receiving yards against an FBS opponent on four or fewer catches.
After nine games, the Gamecocks defense, one of only six Division I teams that have held every opponent below 30 points, is vastly improved over the past two years in many categories, including points allowed (21.2; down 6.1 points from last season) and turnovers forced.
A positive turnover margin is always key to winning on the road and USC leads the SEC at plus-9. The Gamecocks’ 20 takeaways are second highest in the SEC behind Texas A&M (21). USC is the only SEC school with a turnover differential of 1.00 or higher per game. The Gamecocks have recovered eight fumbles and picked off a dozen passes. They are plus-10 in their five wins (14-4) and minus-1 in the four losses (6-7).
The Gamecocks have also defended the pass well, ranking third in the SEC and 22nd in the country in pass defense (194.2 ypg). USC leads the SEC with 12 interceptions. In conference games only, the Gamecocks are No. 1 in the SEC at 157.3 yards per game as opposing league quarterbacks are completing just 52.0 percent of their passes.
SYNOPSIS: The vultures are beginning to circle Jim McElwain at Florida and a third loss to the Gamecocks in the last four meetings between the teams at The Swamp will definitely not go over well in Gainesville. Injuries, though, are affecting the Gators, most prominently at the quarterback position. This one has all the earmarks of a defensive battle. Based on the numbers, throwing the football could be challenging for both teams. Steve Taneyhill won his first four starts as a true freshman in 1992. Bentley can match that feat on Saturday. USC wins the 200th regular season SEC game for the Gamecocks since joining the league in 1992, angering the Florida faithful even more.
PREDICTION: Gamecocks 17, Florida 13.