Vegas: Updating the odds
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South Carolina saved its season with a thrilling 38-35 win over Georgia as a 6.5-point home underdog last weekend. The Gamecocks hooked up their money-line supporters with a +200 payout (risk $100 to win $200). They have now covered the number in five consecutive games as home underdogs with four outright victories.
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Following such an important win, USC falls into a letdown situation as a heavy favorite on the road Saturday at Vanderbilt. As of late Thursday morning, most betting shops had Steve Spurrier's squad installed as a 22-point 'chalk' with a total of 55.5 for 'over/under' wagers.
During Spurrier's 10-year tenure, South Carolina owns an 8-7-2 spread record as a road favorite. Since 2009, USC has been a double-digit road favorite just twice. In 2010, it won 21-7 at Vanderbilt and took the cash as a 12-point favorite. The Gamecocks were fortunate to get their backers a push thanks to a big second half in a 38-17 win at Kentucky as 21-point 'chalk' two seasons ago.
Vanderbilt is 1-2 straight up and 0-3 against the spread in its first year under Derek Mason, who replaced James Franklin following his brilliant three-year stretch in Music City. The Commodores had to rally to capture a 34-31 home win over Massachusetts last weekend. They previously got smashed by Temple (37-7) and Ole Miss (41-3) at home.
Vandy is most likely going to be without its best pass rusher. Senior DE Kyle Woestmann, who had a team-high six sacks last year, is 'doubtful' with a leg injury.
The 'over' is 2-1 for South Carolina with its games averaging 69.7 combined points per game. The 'under' is 2-1 for Vandy with its games averaging 51.0 PPG.
I made South Carolina a 21.5-point favorite, so the side is a pass for me. I also made the total 56, so I think the USC-Vandy game has good numbers and nothing looks attractive.
Going into the game against UGA, South Carolina's odds to win the national title were 75/1 at Sportsbook.ag. The offshore website has reduced that number to 40/1 this week.
Florida St. is the +550 'chalk' to win the College Football Playoff, followed by Alabama (+650) with the next-shortest odds. The future numbers for other SEC teams include Auburn (8/1), Texas A&M (15/1), LSU (18/1), Georgia (18/1), Ole Miss (35/1), Florida (38/1), Mississippi St. (120/1) and Tennessee (500/1).
As for USC's Games of the Year at Sportsbook, it remains a 10.5-point underdog at Auburn and a three-point 'dog at Florida. However, the 'Cocks have gone from three-point 'dogs at Clemson last week to just one-point 'dogs now.
**Picks**
My top play this week is Missouri -13.5 at home vs. Indiana. I made the Tigers 21-point favorites. They are off to a blazing start with three wins by margins of 20, 25 and 28 points, including a 38-10 win over Central Florida last weekend. Maty Mauk is lighting it up with 12 TD passes and just three interceptions. Indiana lost a 45-42 decision at Bowling Green last weekend, allowing that amount of points to the Falcons despite the fact that their star QB Matt Johnson was injured. I'll confidently lay the points with Gary Pinkel's team.
With Jameis Winston suspended for the first half, I'll go with Clemson as a 16.5-point underdog at FSU. The Tigers own a 7-4 spread record as road underdogs during Dabo Swinney's tenure. This is only the second time on Swinney's watch that Clemson has been a double-digit 'dog. In the lone previous such spot, the Tigers took the cash in a 49-37 loss at FSU as 14.5-point puppies in 2012.
Snap CountClick Carolina ConfidentialClick The Insider ReportClick Big Play BreakdownClick Practice InsiderClick ALSO SEE: INSIDER AND IN-DEPTH CONTENT FROM GAMECOCK CENTRAL Here to view this Link. : In this edition, we take a look at the injury situation and moreHere to view this Link. : Breaking down the big plays that helped USC defeat GeorgiaHere to view this Link. : Loaded with in-depth, insider notes on a huge recruiting weekendHere to view this Link. : This packed edition features inside updates on top prospects Here to view this Link.: A look at how many snaps each player took during the UGA game
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