Who: South Carolina 24-18, 4-14 @ Kentucky 23-15, 8-10.
Time/TV: Friday- 6:30 pm, Saturday- 4:30 pm and Sunday- 1:00 pm. All games will stream on SEC Network Plus.
Line: Not one yet- will update once a line is available.
Projected Starting Pitchers: Friday, Brandon Stone (So. RHP) 2-4, 4.93 ERA, 42.0 IP, 8 BB, 36Ks, .258 B/AVG v. Nate Harris (Fr. RHP) 3-2, 4.67 ERA, 34.2 IP, 14 BB, 24Ks, .225 B/AVG
Saturday, Jake McCoy (So. LHP) 4-3, 6.44 ERA, 43.1 IP, 29 BB, 60Ks. .258 B/AVG v. Nic McCay (Sr. RHP) 4-0, 3.08 ERA, 49.2 IP, 29 BB, 51Ks., .153 B/AVG
Sunday, TBA v. Ben Cleaver (So. LHP) 4-2, 2.83 ERA, 54.0 IP, 17 BB, 63Ks, .178 B/AVG
Dylan Eskew is questionable for this weekend. The Gamecocks need to win Friday night. Kentucky's rotation is set up where their best two pitchers pitch in games two and three. Kentucky's bullpen is nothing special and the Cats use a closer by committee approach to end of game situations.
History: Carolina holds a 62-47 series edge over Kentucky but the Cats lead the series in Lexington 29-20. Kentucky has won six of the last seven series contested in Lexington going back to 2010 (a pretty important year in Gamecock baseball history). The only USC team to win a series in Lexington since 2010, the 2021 Gamecocks. Carolina swept UK in that series.
Last Meeting: Carolina took two-of-three in Columbia from the #4th ranked Cats and then won a 6-5 contest in the SEC Tournament. Gavin Cases and Will Tippett hit home runs in Hoover as Parker Marlatt earned the win and Matthew Becker the save.
Weather: Friday is going to be a wet day in Lexington. Don't be surprised if their is a double-header on Saturday as the rest of the weekend looks clear with temperatures in the mid-60s.
Scouting Kentucky
In the last two weeks Kentucky has given Texas one of their only two losses in SEC play, run-ruled Louisville and took a series in Knoxville by holding the mighty Vols lineup to just three runs over the last two games of the series. Kentucky is playing their best baseball.
Patrick Herrera leads the Wildcats with a .328 batting average while Cole Hage has a team-best nine home runs but Kentucky is not known for its power. They are the best small-ball team in the SEC. The Wildcats are extremely aggressive on the base paths and aren't afraid to lean into an inside pitch. Kentucky has four player with double-digit stolen bases this season. In addition to leading the league in stolen bases, Kentucky also leads the league in sacrifice bunts, sac flies and hit batters. They've been hit 25 times more than the second place team in the SEC. Everyone in their lineup can run and bunt.
Kentucky enters the weekend with an RPI of 28.
Can Carolina Make A Regional?
If the Gamecocks are able to play their best baseball over the last four weeks of the season they have a shot despite the 4-14 conference record. The SEC is by far the highest rated league by every metric and will get 13 to 14 teams in the field barring someone at the bottom of the league going on a 6-day heater in Hoover. No SEC team has made the postseason with a 12-18 conference record, however, in the super conference era (the SEC in the only super conference in baseball) a 12-18 will make the field in next few years.
Big IF, but if, Carolina wins their final four SEC series and the last two mid-week games, they would sit at 34-22 overall and 12-18 in league play entering the SEC Tournament. 34 wins got Carolina in the tournament in 2021. South Carolina would end the year winning their last five series with three series wins over ranked foes in this scenario.
The Gamecocks are currently sitting at 52nd in the RPI. The four remaining conference opponents are 28th (Kentucky), 24th (Florida), 12th (LSU) and 3rd (Auburn). An 8-4 record against those four would likely land the Gamecocks in top 30-35 of the RPI. Traditionally, that gets an SEC team into the NCAA Tournament.
South Carolina resume also doesn't include any bad losses. All 18 defeats would be quad one losses if this were basketball. Carolina has played 22 Quad 1 games, the most in the country. All of the Carolina's remaining SEC games are against current Quad 1 teams.
It's an uphill battle with no room for error, the metrics will work in the garnet and black's favor if they can find a way to string together some winning weekends without a midweek slip-up.
Completely unrelated but a nice landing spot for great Gamecock:
