MBB: Five Things to Watch - Kentucky
SOUTH CAROLINA MEN’S BASKETBALL
If the delayed State of the Union address isn’t your cup of tea, South Carolina and Kentucky face off on Tuesday at 7 p.m. on the SEC Network in an important game in the SEC standings.
1. Tournament seeding
It still feels weird to say this: halfway through the conference schedule, South Carolina is playing for positioning in the SEC Tournament, and I don’t mean staying out of the dreaded Thursday 9:30 game.
Kentucky is tied with LSU for second in the SEC at 7-1. One game back is South Carolina, who has a two-game lead on a jumble of fifth-place teams.
2. Feast or famine
Kentucky has a point differential of +13.3, good for 22nd in the country. Why do I bring this up? To point out how comically razor-thin South Carolina’s is. The Gamecocks have a +1.3 scoring margin, 193rd in the country. Out of 351 Division I teams, only 25 have a lower positive scoring margin.
In SEC games, which, again, the Gamecocks have been pretty good in, they have a -1.9 scoring margin. The Gamecocks’ two losses were each by 22 points, and the six wins have been by a combined 29 points, a +4.8 margin, although four of the six were by one possession (three points or less).
I wish I could use these numbers to offer some insight into the Kentucky game, but I can’t. They’re just crazy stats. In the LSU loss, South Carolina was outplayed from the start. In the Tennessee loss, they hung around for three quarters of the game before fading down the stretch. Even in the wins, South Carolina was outplayed by Vanderbilt and Georgia for much of the game before pulling out comeback wins. Against Mississippi State and Auburn, the Gamecocks had double-digit leads they struggled to protect.
So I guess all I can predict is that if South Carolina is going to lose, it will lose by 22. If it wins, it will barely do so. Of course, neither will happen because I am bad at predictions.
3. Second half Silva
We all know by now, as Chris Silva goes, the Gamecocks go. When he’s on, they can hang with anybody in the country. A year ago, Silva established himself with 27 points and eight rebounds (and a splash photo we never get tired of using) in a dominant performance against Kentucky, causing John Calipari to say Silva “manhandled us.”
That’s the same Silva the Gamecocks have gotten over the last couple of weeks, but with one difference. Silva has dominated first halves and then faded in the second half. The usual foul trouble has contributed, but that isn’t the whole story. The Gamecocks have not done a good enough job of getting him the ball. After the Tennessee game, Silva diplomatically said it was his fault for not making himself available to the guards, but the onus is on the guards to get the ball to the team’s best player.
Silva also wore down against Tennessee and Georgia, making the point that he needs help. Against Tennessee he didn’t get it. Against Georgia, A.J. Lawson played the role of sidekick, and South Carolina got the win. Lawson broke out of a mini-slump against Georgia, and South Carolina - and Silva - need him to be effective against Kentucky.
4. Number five
In what has to be some kind of record, Kentucky will be the third #5 team South Carolina has faced this year, after Michigan and Virginia. Throw in #1 Tennessee and it has been quite a challenging schedule. While playing those top teams has paid off by making South Carolina a better team, one that has excelled at closing out games, the Gamecocks have come up short in every game against a top-5 foe. That is why South Carolina is, despite its conference record, still on the outside looking in for March.
Beating Kentucky is always memorable for South Carolina, but this year it might be essential to what little tournament hopes the Gamecocks have left. That being the case, Frank Martin said the tournament is the furthest thing from his mind.
“The whole focus is never about March,” Martin said. “We’ll deal with March when it gets there. The focus is about continuing to improve, focusing on us, continuing to get better.”
5. Scouting the Wildcats
Kentucky got off to a slow (for them) start to the season, but seems to have found its groove and once again looks like, well, Kentucky. The Wildcats are a perfect 12-0 at home, and are riding an eight-game winning streak that includes wins over Auburn, Mississippi State, and Kansas.
Kentucky is in many ways a typical Kentucky team, full of blue-chippers. But it’s also a different type of Kentucky team. There isn’t one single dominant player, and instead of winning with high-flying offense, the Wildcats are winning with lock-down defense.
Kentucky gives up just 61 points per game on 41 percent shooting. The Wildcats have a +9.3 rebounding differential, sixth best in the country.
“Those freshmen have grown up,” Martin said. “Cal’s done what he always does, his teams get better. They don’t get worse, they get better. They’ve got experienced front court players so their team’s gotten better.”
The Ws
Who: South Carolina (11-10, 6-2) at #5 Kentucky (18-3, 7-1)
When: Tuesday, February 5, 7 p.m.
Where: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Watch: SEC Network
More Men’s Basketball Links: MBB/WBB News | Roster | Schedule | Statistics | SEC Standings | Top 25 Polls | Commitments | Recruiting Database