Welcome back to our annual addition of who we think has the best odds to beat their win predictions. 2023 was a success but after reviewing the 2024 results now is a great time to remind everyone that this is NOT betting advice. Please due your own diligence.

Quick side note since this our first national look at 2025. After a wild 2023-2024 of conference realignment, this offseason was quiet. UMass is rejoining the MAC for the 2025 season. That's it!. Conference USA is also picking up two "transitioning" programs from the FCS ranks. Delaware, "The Fighting Flaccos" and Missouri State will both be ineligible for the postseason but will become full FBS members for 2026.

Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State will all be playing their final season in the Mountain West Conference before joining Washington State and Oregon State in the PAC-12. UTEP will leave Conference USA and Northern Illinois will leave the MAC for the Mountain West following this season.

There was one change to the playoff. The five highest-ranked conference champions will still receive automatic bids, but conference championships are no longer required to receive one of the four first round byes given to the top four seeds. Arizona State and Boise State would not have received first round byes had this rule been in effect last season. Texas and Penn State would have received the byes.

ACC

Clemson - 9.5

Carolina fans won’t like this pick, but let’s face it — the ACC lacks consistent top competition. The rest of the conference tends to have good seasons here and there, but the Tigers should be able to get by almost everyone on their schedule this year. Clemson might not have enough to make much noise in the playoffs, yet they have more than enough to win their conference and collect 10 wins.

Likely Wins: vs Troy, at GT, vs Syracuse, at NC, at BC, vs SMU, vs Duke, vs FSU, at Louisville, vs Furman

Toss Ups: vs LSU, at South Carolina

American

Charlotte - 2.5

Biff Poggi is out, Tim Albin is in. Not many casual football fans know who Tim Albin is as he’s a midwestern guy who turned some heads amongst the coaching circle in taking the Charlotte job. The fewest wins Albin has had as a head coach came in his first seasons at Ohio (3) and Northwestern Oklahoma State (5). From there, he never won less than seven games. Betting against Albin to be successful in Charlotte would not be wise. It might be a challenge to scrap together at least three wins in his first season as a 49er, but it can certainly be done.

Likely Win: vs Monmouth

Likely Losses: vs NC, at USF, at Army, vs UTSA, at UGA, at Tulane

Toss Ups: vs App State, vs Temple, vs Rice, vs North Texas, at East Carolina

BIG10

Illinois - 7.5

Bret Bielema didn’t make any fans from South Carolina after his antics in the bowl game. Regardless, he’s built a program that can hang with any team in the Big10 - and on a good day, knock off any team in the Big10. Couple that with one of the easiest schedules in the conference and it’d be a shock if the Illini didn’t easily surpass 7.5 wins. Illinois has a solid chance to be 6-0 headed into their matchup with Ohio State.

Likely Wins: vs Western Illinois, at Duke, vs Western Michigan, at Purdue, at Washington, vs Rutgers, vs Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs Northwestern

Toss Ups: at Indiana, vs Southern Cal, vs Ohio State

BIG12

Oklahoma State - 4.5

Mike Gundy may be coaching for his job in 2025. His three wins in 2024 were the lowest in his soon-to-be 20-year tenure. As consistent as Gundy has been at Oklahoma State, we live in a “win now” society, and six wins is the minimum expectation in Stillwater.

Likely Wins: vs UT Martin, vs Tulsa

Likely Loss: at Oregon

Toss Ups: vs Baylor, at Arizona, vs Houston, vs Cincinnati, at Texas Tech, at Kansas, vs Kansas State, at UCF, vs Iowa State

Conference USA

Louisiana Tech - 5.5

The Bulldogs won five games in 2024 and also dropped five games by seven points or less. Chances are Tech will close out a few more of those close contests in 2025 and become bowl eligible.

Likely Wins: vs SE Louisiana, vs New Mexico State, at Kennesaw State, vs Sam Houston, at Delaware, at Missouri State

Likely Losses: at LSU, at Washington State

Toss Ups: vs Southern Miss, at UTEP, vs Western Kentucky, vs Liberty

MAC

Akron - 4.5

The Zips surpassed the over last season for the first time since Joe Moorhead’s arrival in 2022. Akron’s out-of-conference slate has only one payday game in Nebraska. The rest of the out-of-conference schedule consists of Wyoming, UAB, and Duquesne. The MAC is wide open this year and Akron should feature one of the best offenses in the conference.

Likely Wins: vs Duquesne, at Ball State, vs UMASS, vs Kent State

Likely Losses: at Nebraska, vs Miami (OH),

Toss Ups: vs Wyoming, at UAB, at Toledo, vs Central Michigan, at Buffalo, at Bowling Green

Mountain West

Nevada - 3.5

Jeff Choate enters his second season guiding the Nevada Wolfpack with what should be a stronger squad than he fielded in year one. Choate managed three wins in 2024, and with some key pieces in place, he should be able to push that total to at least four in 2025.

Likely Wins: vs Sacramento State

Likely Losses: at Penn State, vs Boise State, vs UNLV

Toss Ups: vs MTSU, vs WKU, at Fresno State, vs San Diego State, at New Mexico, at Utah State, vs San Jose State, at Wyoming

SEC

South Carolina - 7.5

If the Gamecocks can cobble together even an adequate defense, what should be an improved offense - and potentially a Heisman Trophy candidate in LaNorris Sellers - Carolina ought to surpass the win projection and be in the playoff conversation again. Every game on the schedule is winnable, with the most daunting probably being at Ole Miss and at Texas A&M.

Likely Wins: vs Virginia Tech, vs SC State, vs Vandy, vs Kentucky, vs Coastal Carolina

Toss Ups: at Missouri, at LSU, vs Oklahoma, vs Alabama, at Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, vs Clemson

Sun Belt

Georgia State - 3.5

Similar to Jeff Choate at Nevada, Dell McGee is in his second season guiding the Panthers and also won three games in 2024. There is no reason why Georgia State shouldn’t add another win to their 2025 season total.

Likely Wins: vs Murray State

Likely Losses: at Ole Miss, at Vandy

Toss Ups: vs Memphis, vs James Madison, vs App State, at Georgia Southern, vs South Alabama, at Coastal Carolina, vs Marshall, at Troy, at Old Dominion

Perry McCarty gave you his "overs" above, I'm going to give you the teams I project as disappointments in 2025.

ACC

Brent Pry and the Hokies haven't won the offseason. The transfer portal makes predicting teams outcomes nearly impossible. Virginia Tech lost 31 players to the transfer but they did bring 30 players in. Pry fired three coaches and his OC left for a position coach role at Ohio State. VT is 1-11 in one-score games under Pry. If that metric flips, I'll be wrong here. Tech under 6.5.

American

South Florida has posted 6-6 seasons in the first two seasons under Alex Golesh. Expect more of the same. The Bulls open with Boise State and then at Florida and Miami. It's gets easier but they also play Memphis, UTSA and Navy. USF under 6.5

Big Ten

Wisconsin's potential win over Miami in court over tampering allegations doesn't count. The Badgers will start 2-0 after games against Miami OH and Middle Tennessee State after that there isn't another guaranteed win. They catch road games at Michigan, Alabama, Oregon and Indiana. They also host Illinois, Iowa and Ohio State. Wisconsin under 5.5

Big XII

Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are gone (and somehow Shedeur got his number retired despite a 13-12 record). Colorado again turned over 1/3 of their roster in the portal. They open with Georgia Tech in Boulder- with a loss here, I don't see 7 regular season wins. Colorado under 6.5.

Conference USA

UTEP is projected to be one of the ten worst teams in the country yet their number is 5.5. They only have one payday game at Texas. I don't see them winning five of the other 11 games. Miners under 5.5

MAC

I think Vegas is too high on Ohio. They were 11-3 last season and their number this year is 7.5. They should start 0-3 with road games vs Rutgers and Ohio St with West Virginia sandwiched in between. They'll beat Gardner-Webb and enter MAC play 1-3, they'll slip up two times. Ohio under 7.5

Mountain West

Nevada was 3-10 last season. I don't see any improvement and they don't play a 13th regular season in 2025. Perry and I are going opposite here. Nevada under 3.5

SEC

My hottest take. I'm betting against Arch Manning and the Longhorns at 9.5. I think Ohio State gets them again in Columbus, they win there other three non-conference games and then go 6-2 in the SEC. The Horns are at Florida and Georgia but do miss Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee. Texas under 9.5 but makes the playoff.

Sun Belt

Coastal is in rebuild mode after a great run from 2020-2023. They went 6-7 last season and had a ton of portal activity. The Chants play App State, Virginia, and South Carolina all on the road. 5-7 is my pick. CCU under 6.5.