National Outlook: Which FBS teams will surprise in 2023? Volume 1

During my time away from coaching, I have developed an appreciation for FBS turnarounds and monitor the teams that will catch most of the nation by surprise. In this column, we will take a look at potential surprise teams in 2023.

When it comes to FBS there a few key giveaways who the next upcoming powers will be.

1) Recruiting. When it comes to recruiting, I learned during my years of having my own players recruited and through many conversations with college coaches what the stronger programs are looking for. Stars are helpful for fans to gauge an idea about their team’s recruiting class, but they do not always tell the full story. Regardless of the star rankings, coaches are looking for physically gifted and explosive players who are committed to the process and are coachable.

On a side note, Rivals is one of the few services that is not afraid to give out 2 star ratings. The ratings may sometimes be debatable, but other recruiting services usually give out 3 stars and above (or no rating at all).

2) Staff experience. Playing experience is a plus, but coaching is more about knowledge (and most importantly) the ability to relate and apply it in a way the players understand. The majority of successful staffs now feature coaches that have spent time in both the NFL and college (in a coaching capacity role) and have had some type of failure along the way. The best coaches learn from their mistakes and experiences, turning them into newfound strengths. On the flip side, many coaches coming up from the lower ranks such as high school or FCS are more in tune with the newest trends in play-calling.

3) Culture. From the outside looking in, this is the most difficult to gauge. A solid indicator is if the head coach allows the majority of his staff and players to speak to the media on a consistent basis. Coaches that know their program is not on steady ground will often restrict access to their staff and players.

There were five teams I keyed in on to take the next step in 2022. They were South Carolina, Illinois, UCONN, New Mexico State, and Akron. All except Akron did prove correct, but the Zips improved everywhere except the win column.

Carolina - My prediction for the Gamecocks was to win 9 games in the regular season and a 10th with a bowl win. Instead, this year’s team collected 8 regular season wins and a loss in the bowl game. A solid season and step in the right direction, but one that left opportunities on the table.

Illinois - Bret Bielema is a prime example of someone learning from their past mistakes. After winning 5 games in 2021, his 2022 team featured one of the best defenses in the nation and a running back that led the FBS in yardage. They went 8-4 in the regular season with all the losses coming by 8 points or less, including a 2 point loss to Michigan. True to form, the Illini dropped another close game to an emotionally charged Mississippi State in the bowl game.

UCONN - As with most immediate turnarounds, the Huskies started slow out the gate, but finished the regular season 6-6 and made a bowl appearance. Jim Mora brought in what I considered the best class in G5 (out of all the first year coaches). He will need another stellar class to take the next step in 2023.

New Mexico State - Jerry Kill is known as someone who turns programs around. He brought in what I considered the 3rd best class in G5 amongst first year coaches. The Aggies finished the regular season 6-6 and capped it off with a bowl victory to get a 7th win. They move into Conference USA next year, which will present a new challenge, but they are already off to a strong start on the recruiting trail heading into 2023.

Akron - I underestimated how little talent the Zips had at the end of 2021. Former Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead flipped the roster by nearly 50 players going into 2022, but it still was not enough. Akron only won 2 games this past season, but lost 5 games by 7 points or less. Statistically they made a major leap leading the MAC in offense and improving the run defense by an average of over 100 yards per game.

It is still early and this list will be adjusted through the offseason but early teams to watch are below.

Akron (2-10) - Easy choice here. If Akron had even a semblance of a consistent pass rush and half way decent cornerback play, they would have won their fair share of close games in 2022. The staff is in the process of rectifying those weaknesses through recruiting. There is a possibility the Zips starting secondary in 2023 will feature all former P5 players. Gamecock transfer Joey Hunter is a name Carolina fans will recognize. Duke transfer safety Nate Thompson was recruited by the previous regime at Carolina.

South Carolina (8-5) - There is no reason to think Carolina will not take another step forward due to strong back to back recruiting classes and the ability this staff has shown to develop players. With the addition of a few talented transfers, a 10 win season could be reality in 2023.

Illinois (8-5) - The Illini are losing some key players, but the overall talent will be improved in 2023. Coach Bielema has proven his recruiting at Illinois has been underrated, despite not yet being recognized as such by the national media. There is a strong chance Illinois will be competing in the BIG10 championship game next year.

Miami (5-7) - Mario Cristobal had plenty of success and failures at FIU, which he parlayed into a successful stint at Oregon. He is in the process of weeding out players that do not meet his standards and replacing them with highly touted recruits. Miami currently has the 5th best class according to Rivals. Fat chance Miami only wins 5 games again in 2023.

Stanford (3-9) - It is way too early to know what the results will be at Stanford, but Troy Taylor has had incredible success at the FCS level. Often fans will scoff at FCS coaches, but they tend to be at the forefront of new play trends in college football. Recruiting will be the biggest challenge for coach Taylor. He landed RB Justin Williams-Thomas from the portal and lost him to California shortly thereafter. The rest of his early signing class is from the previous regime.

Colorado (1-11) - Another easy choice for a team to take a step forward. Improving upon a 1 win season in the PAC should not be difficult. The question is how far Coach Prime can take this program. As expected, early returns in recruiting look promising with all the fresh hype. Coach Prime was able to snag stud JUCO offensive tackle Isaiah Jatta from Carolina late in the first signing window.

Colorado State (3-9) - The Rams went 3-9 in Jay Norvell’s first year at the helm. Three wins was probably an overachievement considering Colorado State played the majority of the season with only 59 scholarship players available. The 2023 class has yet to be completed, but already has 27 high school signees and 8 incoming transfers.

UNLV (5-7) - Barry Odom takes over a 5 win UNLV team. Substantially improving on that record in the first year may be challenging. However, in subsequent seasons several more wins per year may occur. Odom is known for his defensive prowess. He hired Bobby Petrino to run his offense and within a few weeks lost Petrino to TAMU. The new staff landed a few of their own recruits in the early signing period and those recruits have some P5 traits. Lucas Conti was a late steal in the early signing period from Arizona.

Texas State (4-8) - The Bobcats brought in Texas native and former Incarnate Word head coach GJ Kinne to guide their program. Texas State faces some stiff competition in the Sun Belt so improving on 4 wins in the first year may prove a challenge. Kinne’s staff did not have much time to recruit in the first window, but the early focus has been on the state of Texas. Speedy 3 star receiver Chris Dawn is Kinne’s highest rated signing to date.

South Florida (1-11) - The Bulls hired former Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh to lead the charge. Golesh has plenty of experience and worked under some highly touted coaches during his career as an assistant. There really is not a good reason for a program like South Florida to not be competitive. The AAC will be available for the taking with the departures of UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston to the Big 12. Recruiting should not be an issue for Golesh, nor should improving on a 1 win season in 2023.

Nebraska (4-8) - Some coaches are not suited for the NFL and Matt Rhule falls into that category. He created impressive turnarounds at Temple and Baylor and will attempt the same at Nebraska. Rhule knows what it takes to be successful at the college level and has already flipped the Cornhuskers 2023 recruiting class from a low rank into #26. He again will have Marcus Satterfield by his side which may prove useful. Looking forward, the biggest difference this go round is having to face a rapidly improving Illinois program, a potentially improved Wisconsin, and possibly Ohio State, Michigan, and Southern Cal on an annual basis.

Wisconsin (7-6) - The Badgers managed to pry longtime midwesterner Luke Fickell away from Cincinnati. Something several other P5 schools have been unable to do over the years. Wisconsin had a solid recruiting class already in place and Fickell has since added to it with a number of Cincinnati transfers. Still, improving on 7 wins in his first season will be difficult. Despite not having many connections in Wisconsin, Fickell is known as a strong recruiter and will have the portal available to expedite needed talent.

Auburn (5-7) - The Tigers are rarely at a talent deficit and 2023 will be no different. Culture and coaching was somewhat lacking the past few years. Culture may continue to be an issue, but Auburn threw caution to the wind and raced out to pay Hugh Freeze. Freeze has been successful every where he has been in regards to coaching football. He may need the rest of the SEC to take a step back to have much improvement in the win column next year, but he already has a strong recruiting class on its way.

Texas A&M (5-7) - Jimbo Fisher has reportedly relinquished control of the offense and turned it over to new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. That in and of itself should produce better results in 2023 even if the Aggies are losing some of their top offensive players. The portal hit TAMU hard and they will be challenged to sufficiently cover all their losses. Outperforming a 5 win season should not prove too difficult, but culture is an issue in Aggie land and this year could develop into a soap opera.

Charlotte (3-9) - Biff Poggi takes over a depleted 49er program after the dismissal of Will Healy. Poggi is heavily relying on the portal to stiffen talent level across the roster. He has a challenge ahead of him, but may be able to eclipse the 3 win mark in year one if the ball bounces his way. Charlotte is sandwiched in an area where they have access to plenty of talent, so this is a program Poggi should be able to return to respectability.

Tulsa (5-7) - The Golden Hurricanes chose former Indiana head coach and former Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson as their new leader. Wilson has brought a number of younger Ohio State staff with him and also hired Steve Spurrier Jr. as offensive coordinator. Outperforming 5 wins in the first year probably is not feasible. Add to the fact Wilson played damage control and has yet to have the opportunity to sign any of his own prep players. The initial offers have gone out to players with high upside and it is clear Wilson is targeting higher caliber players than the previous staff.

Volume II will come out sometime after the second signing day where we will narrow down some teams. Volume III will take place after spring practice and the last portal window.

Let us hear your thoughts on any surprise teams in 2023.