Who: #1 South Carolina 30-0 (16-0) vs Tennessee 19-11 (10-6), The Bi-Lo Center (any resident of the Upstate that doesn't still call this building the Bi-Lo Center is a sellout). Greenville, SC
Time/TV: 4:30 on ESPN U
Line: SC -17.5. Total 143.5
History: Historically the Lady Vols have dominated this series leading 49-14. Of those 49 wins, 43 belong to the legendary Pat Summitt. When Summitt stepped down in 2012, she was 43-2 against the Gamecocks. She was 6-1 against SC under Dawn Staley. Under Staley, the Gamecocks began to turn the series around. Carolina went 5-5 against Summitt's replacement Holly Warlick. Staley and the Gamecocks are 7-1 against current UT Coach Kellie Harper. South Carolina is 4-3 against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament winning the last four meetings. Carolina has won the last six contests with the Lady Vols including...
Last Meeting: March 3, 2024, a whole six days Carolina held off a pesky Lady Vol team on Senior Day by a score of 76-68. The Gamecocks led most of the afternoon but they were unable to pull away from Tennessee in large part due to soon-to-be WNBA Top 5 pick Rickea Jackson. The fifth-year senior scored 29 points and grabbed eight rebounds. The Gamecocks were led by their "likely" soon-to-be WNBA Top 5 pick, Kamilla Cardoso. The senior notched a double-double with 18 points and 14 rebounds before fouling out after just 23 minutes of action.
How they got here
Tennessee will be on their third game in three days. They've won both comfortably so their starters haven't had to log heavy minutes. On Thursday, Tennessee pulled away from Kentucky in the third quarter due to 22 points from Sara Puckett. The Lady Vols would have been a tough out for anyone in the quarterfinals on Friday thanks to Jewel Spear. She simply could not miss over the first three quarters connecting on 6-6 attempts from 3-point range. UT routed the higher sided Crimson Tide 83-61.
South Carolina overcame a season-high 24 turnovers to advance past Texas A&M 79-68. Outside of the turnovers, Carolina played a solid game.
On the other side of the bracket LSU jumped all over Auburn to win their rubber match by a score of 78-48. LSU played well, but Auburn couldn't throw the ball in the ocean shooting 29.9%. LSU also shot 31 free throws to Auburn's six. In the night cap, Ole Miss got all it wanted from Florida before pulling out an 84-74 win thanks to 33 points from Marquesha Davis. Ole Miss could be a dangerous game for LSU.
Biggest Threats to Carolina's Third Championship
Alan Cole and myself have listed the five times most likely to upset the unbeaten Gamecocks in March/April. While no team in the country is likely to be favored over the Gamecocks, we've each provided the five schools that could present Carolina with the most trouble.
Alan's Five:
1. Stanford- Cam Brink is as dominant as ever, and South Carolina has had its fair share of issues with the top forwards in the country, from Utah's Alissa Pili to Tennessee's Rickea Jackson twice. The Cardinal should get a No. 1 seed and be away from the Gamecocks until the Final Four, but they've got the requisite size to complete on the glass and the guard play to back it up.
2. Iowa- Not a lot of mystery as to why this one is dangerous. I believe this South Carolina team is much better equipped to handle a shootout or any kind of game with an up-and-down pace than last year's was, but the danger remains. As long as the best pure shooter in the country is on the other bench, there is a chance of getting shot out of the building.
3. LSU- This match-up would not happen until at least the Final Four with both teams coming out of the SEC, but you have to give a nod to the team which pushed South Carolina the furthest this season. South Carolina escaped Baton Rouge with a six-point win after Angel Reese fouled out with four minutes left, but it was a one-possession game in the final minute. Reese is a match-up nightmare, and Aneesah Morrow gave South Carolina all it could handle in that game. If the Tigers and Gamecocks met again, it would be a tight game.
4. UCLA- South Carolina knows all about the Bruins after seeing them twice last season, but this version is even better. UCLA is 24-5, but two of those losses were by a combined five points and another was in overtime against a brutal Pac-12 schedule. Lauren Betts is a post problem for any opponent, and the guard tandem of Kiki Rice and Charisma Osborne is as difficult a 1-2 punch as any in the country.
5. Ohio State- The Big Ten champs have the type of defense capable of slowing down a game led by maybe the best lockdown defender in the country, Duke transfer Celeste Taylor. They also have the backcourt scoring to back it up with Jacy Sheldon at the other end, and Cotie McMahon is a force inside. They're 25-5, but three of the four losses were to top-10 teams and they were in every game all year, until a stunning upset loss to Maryland yesterday in the Big Ten Tournament.
Stephen's Five:
There is not much difference between the two lists.
1. Stanford- No need to rehash what Alan said. Stanford and South Carolina games are always close and seem to come down to the final possession.
2. LSU- The Tigers are playing better than they were in January when Carolina went to Baton Rouge and won. Now is that due to a softer portion of their schedule or has Kim Mulkey figured out her rotation? Probably a little bit of both. It is looking likely that we'll see rematch of that January classic this weekend.
3. Ohio State- Again, pretty much the same mindset as Alan. We can only assume yesterday's destruction at the hands of Maryland was a one off.
4. Iowa- Clark. This year's South Carolina team would have dusted last year's Iowa team in the Final Four. The Hawkeyes couldn't load the paint on Boston as this year's Gamecocks can knock down the three. Nonetheless, Clark. No one is going to want to see them until the Final Four or Championship game. Not be a tinfoil hat guy, but I think the NCAA and ESPN are going to want Clark around as long as possible this tournament.
5. Indiana- This one maybe a little out of left field, but Indiana can also play at a grinding tempo with a lot of motion on offense. The last time Hoosiers played Carolina they handed the 2019-2020 team their only loss of the season. IU frustrated Carolina the way few have over the last five years. Mackenzie Holmes is a force down low and the Hoosiers have three guards that can hit the three.
UCLA would be my #6 selection. Southern Cal could be a factor due to Juju Watkins, but we both feel she is a year away from beating a team like South Carolina.
Prediction
You've seen this game twice already. The Lady Vols have thrown everything they have at the Gamecocks and it hasn't been enough. There is no reason to think that today's game won't follow the same script. Carolina 78-65.