Breaking down what South Carolina baseball still needs to host a regional

A month ago, the question of if South Carolina baseball would host a regional seemed like a formality. The Gamecocks were pushing for the No. 1 spot in the country coming out of a series sweep over Florida, but everything changed from there.

Since then South Carolina has lost all three series it has played, and is just 3-8 overall. With just one SEC remaining, what actually has to happen for this team to still secure a home regional? And is there any way it could still climb back into the national seed picture?

Right off the bat South Carolina has a wrinkle thrown in. Because of the Apr. 8 rainout against LSU, this team will only play 29 SEC games. This is not completely unprecedented — it happened to Auburn last season, Vanderbilt the year prior and to two tournament teams in 2017 — but is still odd.

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to its current format in 1999, no SEC team with a 15-14 record has ever hosted a regional, so clearly South Carolina will need another win from its current 15-11 position. Auburn hosted as the No. 14 overall seed with its 16-13 clip last year, while 17-12 has been a gray area in the past. It was enough for South Carolina and Mississippi State to host in 2013 and 2003 respectively, but not enough for Arkansas in 2015.

If the Gamecocks could somehow sweep Tennessee, a national seed would re-enter the equation. An 18-11 SEC mark was enough for South Carolina to earn a national seed in 2012, the last time it reached Omaha. It also did the same for LSU in 2008. The 18-11 record means a .621 winning percentage, and no team with a mark that high has been sent on the road for a regional since 2013.

Scratching the 29-game factor and just looking at the overall win total, South Carolina still has work to do. No team with a winning record in SEC play has missed the tournament since it expanded to 64, all but guaranteeing the Gamecocks will be in the field with a 15-14 record at worst.

The 16-win threshold has not usually been enough for hosting, but South Carolina would have the benefit of one fewer defeat at 16-13, and it has a top-five RPI, a key metric for the selection committee factoring in record, strength of schedule and road wins. A series win over Tennessee would mean 17 or 18 wins, at which point South Carolina would firmly be on the right side of history in terms of hosting.

Overall with a series win over the Volunteers, South Carolina's odds of hosting a regional based on SEC history would be 62.5 percent, while a series loss would dip them all the way to 11.4 percent.

Beyond just the win total, the final SEC placement could factor into the selection committee’s decision. Since 1999 the conference has hosted 93 regionals, an average of just over four per year. That number has ticked up in the last decade with an average of 4.8 per year, and six SEC teams have hosted in two of the last three seasons.

Right now South Carolina is right on the bubble at fifth in the SEC standings, but could still fluctuate anywhere from second to ninth depending on how the final weekend shakes out. Finishing fifth in the conference has represented nearly a coin flip chance over the last 18 years, with eight (44.4 percent) of those teams earning a hosting bid. Dropping to sixth or lower though could be a crucial blow, with only four 16.6 percent of sixth-place teams hosting regionals since 1999.

Historically speaking, South Carolina's odds of hosting are 39.1 percent in fifth place. Finishing somehwere from second to fourth would double them to 78.2 percent, while dropping to sixth or lower would plummet the chances to 7.6 percent.

The one variable in all of this is the SEC Tournament, starting Tuesday at the Hoover Met. You only have to look as far as last season when Florida became the first SEC team ever to host a regional with just 15 conference wins off the back of a surprising run all the way to the tournament championship game.

Swing it back to 2019 and Ole Miss pulled off something similar, becoming one of just four teams to host with a 16-14 record thanks to reaching the championship game. That same year Texas A&M — who finished ahead of Ole Miss at 16-13-1 — played its way out of a hosting spot by going 1-2 in Hoover. LSU and its 17-13 record secured a hosting bid with a run to the semifinals in Hoover.

It is something of a moving target every year in terms of how much a conference tournament can help or hurt a team, but it has had a clear impact on the SEC picture in recent seasons.

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