Early Football Previews and Predictions: Game 1 vs. Georgia State

We are officially 93 days away from the beginning of football season, and though that seems like quite a long way, it will be here before you know it. While we've known the 2022 schedule for a while now, many people don't look too closely at it until summer, when they begin making their plans for fall tailgates and road trips. Last week, the university announced the first 3 game times for the 2022 season, and the opener, vs. Georgia State is set to kick off under the lights at Williams-Brice Stadium (7:30 pm EST on ESPN+). Let's take an early look at what to expect from Georgia State, and how the Gamecocks might fare as they start a highly anticipated 2022 campaign. Enjoy the first one (it's free, but the rest of the schedule will be for subscribers, which you should totally consider)

Georgia State had a really interesting 2021 under 6th-year head coach Shawn Elliott, who South Carolina fans are very familiar with after Eliott spent time coaching OL and even a brief interim head coaching stint with the Gamecocks from 2010-2016. Elliott will be motivated to go up against his former team and show the Gamecocks that things could have been different if he had won the job instead of former coach Will Muschamp after the legendary Steve Spurrier retired in 2015. Gamecock fans will remember that Elliott could not save that 2015 season, but his teams usually played with tons of passion and nearly knocked off several opponents, including the eventual national championship runner-up Clemson Tigers, to who the Gamecocks fell 37-32, the closest margin of defeat in Clemson's 7 game streak over South Carolina.

Shawn Elliott's Georgia State squads have had a similar fighting spirit, piecing together an 8-5 finish last year after a 1-4 start, including a big upset over Sun Belt power Coastal Carolina and a 51-20 blowout bowl win over Ball State. Georgia State has only played at the FBS level since 2013, and while Elliott has an even 30-30 record the last 5 seasons, his teams have started to round into form with three straight winning seasons, three straight bowl games (including two straight bowl wins), and four bowl appearances in five years.

Suffice it to say, that while the Gamecocks will be favored, this isn't the pushover opener that Eastern Illinois was to start last season.

Georgia State is inevitably going to try to run the football behind their experienced offensive line, Malik Sumter was a Second-Team All-Sun Belt center, and Pat Bartlett was a Third Team All-Sun Belt guard. In fact, they have nearly their entire OL back, besides Guard Shamarious Gilmore, who is now on the Seattle Seahawks roster for NFL OTAs. They have two experienced runners in Senior Tucker Gregg, who has 310 carries, 1,560 yards (5 ypc), 16 TD in 4 seasons with the Panthers, and another name Gamecock fans will remember in former CB turned RB Jamyest Williams who has carved out a role with 175 carries, 1,112 yards (6.4 ypc), 9 TD over his two seasons playing a new position at Georgia State.

That's not to mention the constant struggle that Gamecock teams have had with dual-threat QBs, and the Panthers have a pretty good one in Senior QB Darren Grainger. There's nothing eye-popping about the Conway, SC native's passing stats, though he did throw 19 TDs to 4 picks last year and he sits right around 60% accuracy for his career. He's a very real threat as a runner tacking on 646 yards and three scores last season. Many may remember the fits he gave Auburn last year in a closer than it looks on paper 34-24 loss for the Panthers when he ran 17 times and threw 2 TDs. The biggest receiving threat for the Panthers, especially in the red zone, might be TE Aubrey Payne who caught seven TDs in 2021. Their top receiver Sam Pinckney transferred to Coastal Carolina, but they still have few other options including Jamari Thrash and Ja’Cyais Credle that can take advantage, despite the low passing volume of this offense.

The Gamecocks need to make it a priority to stack the box, slow down the run, and keep Grainger in the pocket to force him to beat them with his arm, which he's rarely shown the ability to do consistently, he only exceeded 200 yards passing 3 times last season. If South Carolina can get an early lead, and force the Panthers into passing situations, they shouldn't have a ton of trouble in this one, but this veteran offense will certainly rack up some yardage at times in this game.

It still remains to be seen how effective South Carolina's offense can be under new QB Spencer Rattler and second-year OC Marcus Satterfield. The Gamecocks will get their first test against an experienced and effective defense in Georgia State's unit. The strength of the defense lies in their LBs and EDGE rushers. OLB Jamil Muhammad led the team with 6 sacks last season and both Blake Carroll and Jordan Veneziale are senior starters at LB who combine tons of experience with exceptional talent. Carroll finished third-team All-Sun Belt and the pair of ILBs combined for 186 tackles in 2021. South Carolina will need to find a way to be more consistent with the run game this season, on the back of a deep stable of RBs including MarShawn Lloyd, Christian Beal-Smith, and JuJu McDowell. If they can establish the run, that should take some pressure off the strength of the Georgia State's pass rush and give Rattler and company some time to pick apart an experienced, but streaky secondary, though they are led by two-time All-Sun Belt Safety Antavious Lane who has amassed 136 tackles and 9 interceptions – 2 for scores, over the last two seasons.

All in all, this defense, and Georgia State team at large is filled with Juniors and Seniors who are eager to knock off an SEC opponent, especially one their coach spent many years at. In fact, the entire starting 22 of Georgia State is likely only planning to start one underclassman, RS SO Safety Jalen Tate. The other 21 starters are all Juniors or Seniors.

I'll revisit each of these predictions the week before the actual game, but I think it's fun to begin to lock in a season-long outlook before fall camp begins in August, and then see how that changes once real football begins.

For this one, I expect South Carolina to let Georgia State hang around early as both teams knock the rust off, but ultimately the Gamecocks are more talented across the board and that should allow them to pull away in the second half.

Final: South Carolina 37 ------ Georgia State 19

While it may not be the blowout fans would like to see before transitioning into SEC play, I expect the Gamecocks to work out some kinks and ultimately breathe easily sometime around the late 3rd quarter.