SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS BASKETBALL
Metrics for determining who does, or does not, get in the NCAA Tournament change almost as much as the seasons do.
First it was strength of schedule, then it was RPI, a metric that took into account when, where and against whom a team’s wins and losses came.
That lasted for a few years until this offseason, when the NCAA implemented its new NET rankings, something similar to a merger of RPI and KenPom efficiency statistics. NET takes into account efficiency numbers along with who a team plays, the margin of victory or defeat and where the team beats them.
The biggest worry right now for the Gamecocks, who have skyrocketed up the NET rankings in SEC play, is the heavy importance on efficiency statistics.
“The one thing I know we’re all a little concerned about is the efficiency numbers are very important criteria in creating that number,” Frank Martin said. “If you’re a school that plays the teams we’ve played, you’re efficiency numbers aren’t going to be as good as if you played some other teams.”
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The NET works like this: the biggest component of a team’s ranking is the “Team Value Index,” which is an algorithm rewarding who a team plays, where they play them and if that team wins.
Winning percentage and adjusted winning percentage are also counted. Adjusted winning percentage rewards a team for winning on the road (+1.4 points) compared to at home (+0.6 points), and vice versa for playing on the road.
The second biggest component, though, is net efficiency rankings, which is offensive efficiency subtracted by a team’s defensive efficiency. They also count margin of victory up to 10 points, so South Carolina’s 22-point loss to LSU goes down as a loss by just 10.
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But the problem with that is no matter a 10-point or 30-point loss, the efficiency numbers always look better in lopsided wins and worse in blowout losses.
Right now, the Gamecocks are 122nd nationally in offensive efficiency, averaging 106.2 points per 100 possessions, and 90th in defensive allowing 99.3 points per 100. They’re seventh in the SEC in both offensive (104.0) and defensive (103.8) efficiencies through six games.
In general, if South Carolina were to beat a lot of mediocre teams by a lot, those efficiency numbers would look really good compared to losing to a good team by just a little, regardless of margin of defeat.
“They tried to protect themselves from a quality opponent if you win by 11 points, it counts as a 10-point win, but our efficiency numbers are a lot better against some teams than they were against Virginia and Michigan and Clemson,” Martin said. “I think that’s a part of it. Like anything else, it’s new. There are things that aren’t going to be perfect.”
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After starting in the 200s of the NET rankings at the beginning of SEC play, the Gamecocks are right now No. 100, up 12 spots after upsetting Auburn Tuesday. The Gamecocks are No. 93 in KenPom, up 22 spots.
The Gamecocks (10-8, 5-1 SEC) are sitting on three quad one wins currently—at Florida, vs. Mississippi State and vs. Auburn—with a chance at two more over their next two games: at Oklahoma State (No. 72 NET) and home against Tennessee (No. 4 NET).
While Martin has staff members that look at those numbers and dissect them, he doesn’t worry too much about them. He’s worried about preparations for the next game.
“I haven’t paid attention. I couldn’t tell you what team is what and all that stuff. I used to get consumed with that as an assistant coach and did that my first year as a head coach and was like, ‘Oh my God. I’m never doing this again.’”
A full breakdown of how NET rankings work is here.