How ESPN's FPI projects the rest of the South Carolina football season

SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS FOOTBALL

ESPN's Football Power Index, or FPI, now has five week's worth of 2019 football season data and the bye week marks a perfect time to check in on the South Carolina football team's projections.

During the preseason, the FPI was high on the Gamecocks, ranking them as the No. 18 team in the country, but it also ranked their schedule as the most-difficult in the country. Because of that, the FPI's simulation projected an average record of just 6.1 - 5.9, though it had the Gamecocks as favorites in only five games at the time.

Fast forward to five games into the year and the Gamecocks sit at 2-3 overall. The FPI's odds projected the Gamecocks to defeat Charleston Southern and Kentucky and lose to Alabama and Missouri, as they did, with the only unexpected result the season-opening loss to North Carolina.

The FPI is still relatively high on the Gamecocks as a team, ranking them the No. 25 team in the country, though the projected record has dipped to 5.1 - 6.9, due to facing the nation's third-hardest remaining schedule.

In terms of efficiency, ESPN's metrics rank South Carolina's defense at 18, offense at 79 and special teams at 51.

Here's how the FPI projects the rest of the season, with the preseason projection in parentheses:

@ Georgia - 11.7% (down from 20.1% preseason)

Florida - 32.6% (down from 42.3% preseason)

@ Tennessee - 61.9% (up from 37% preseason)

Vandy - 84.8% (up from 77.2% preseason)

App State - 79.2% (down from 85.8% preseason)

@ Texas A&M - 25.3% (down slightly from 26.2% preseason)

Clemson - 16.1% (up from 14.9% preseason)

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According to the company's website, the FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.

Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. During the season, it is updated daily.