Published Mar 5, 2020
How South Carolina could finish in the SEC
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Collyn Taylor  •  GamecockScoop
Beat Writer
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@collyntaylor

This time of year is always confusing trying to figure out where teams fall, and this year might be the most confusing yet.

College basketball has been weird this year and even so in the SEC where no team outside of Kentucky has separated itself despite there being just one game left.

The picture is a little clearer for the Gamecocks as things approach the finish line. Before things get there, a look at how things could shake out.

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The skinny: Right now the Gamecocks sit tied for fifth in the SEC at 10-7 with Mississippi State but do have the tiebreaker head-to-head with the Bulldogs due to the second tiebreaker, record against the top seed, which this year being Kentucky.

With Florida's win Wednesday, the Gamecocks can't get a double bye in the tournament. That's a double edge sword, with the Gamecocks getting another chance for a win against a lower-seeded opponent but one more chance to get bounced earlier.

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The Gamecocks are locked into either the five or six seed in the tournament and will play either one of the four bottom teams in the tournament, seeds No. 11 through 14. Seeding needs to be sorted out, but the bottom four will likely be a combination of Missouri, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Georgia.

The best South Carolina could finish is 11-7 and at worst 10-8. There are five teams right now who can finish with 11 wins in the SEC and four who could finish with 10 wins.

Tiebreakers: The first tiebreaker is easy: head to head match ups. For instance, South Carolina is 2-0 against Texas A&M. If both finish at 10-8, the Gamecocks have the tiebreaker.

Second tiebreaker is winning percentage against the top seed in the tourney, which is Kentucky. So if Tennessee and South Carolina tie at 10 wins, the Gamecocks have the tiebreaker since they're 1-0 against the Wildcats and Tennessee is 1-1.

If there are multiple teams tied at the same number of wins, it's the combined records between the teams.

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Remaining schedule (all games Saturday): Kentucky at Florida, South Carolina at Vanderbilt, Auburn at Tennessee, Georgia at LSU, Ole Miss at Mississippi State, Arkansas at Texas A&M, Alabama at Missouri

The easy solution: The easiest and mentally pain free situation is the Gamecocks beating Vandy, and Mississippi State losing. If that happens, then the Gamecocks would be the No. 5 seed in the tournament playing the winner of Wednesday's game against No. 11 and No. 14.

The most likely scenario: Based off of KenPom's predictive algorithm, if the games go how the site predicts, then the Gamecocks, Mississippi State and Auburn would all finish at 11-7. Auburn is 2-0 while Mississippi State and Gamecocks are 1-2 in that round robin, which would then make South Carolina the No. 5 seed playing Ole Miss or Georgia with a win sending them to play the No. 4 seed Auburn.

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A few other scenarios: If there is a possibility for a five-way tie for second place in the SEC if South Carolina and Mississippi State both win coupled with losses by Auburn, LSU and Florida. If that happens, round robin tiebreakers would put the Gamecocks as the No. 6 seed playing most likely Missouri or Vanderbilt with a win sending them to play No. 3 seed Florida.

There's also a possibility for a four-way tie for fifth at 10-8 if South Carolina and Mississippi State both lose with Texas A&M and Tennessee winning. If that comes to pass, the Gamecocks would be the No. 5 seed based on round robin play. They'd play the winner of the No. 12/13 game and would be on track to play the No. 4 seed, whoever that might be (either LSU, Florida or Auburn).