Published Oct 7, 2020
How South Carolina's 0-2 start affects ESPN FPI prediction
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Collyn Taylor  •  GamecockScoop
Beat Writer
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@collyntaylor

Two weeks are in the books and the Gamecock's margin for error is getting smaller and smaller.

South Carolina is 0-2 for the first time since 1999, and now have eight games left in a season that was already going to test its mettle.

Before the season, GamecockCentral broke down South Carolina's chances in each game using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) predictor and thought it would be good to revisit it tow weeks into the season to get a prognosis for the rest of the year.

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The Gamecocks started the season with ESPN's FPI projecting them to go 4-6 in the SEC's 10-game schedule and that's dipped slightly after a slow start to the season.

Right now FPI is projecting a final record of 3-7 with a 50 percent chance of beating two teams on the remaining schedule.

Also see: More advanced stats from Saturday's loss to Florida

Before the season it was three—Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Missouri—but the Gamecocks dropped their opener to the Vols 31-27 which ended that opportunity.

Right now the only games with a greater than 50 percent win probability are the Vanderbilt and Missouri games at 79.8 percent and 68 percent, respectively.

The good news for South Carolina is, while still low, the win probabilities for five of their six remaining games did go up after two weeks.

The biggest jump came against Texas A&M where the Gamecocks now have a 48.3 percent win probability, up from 34.3 at the beginning of the year.

They also have a 21.2 percent chance to beat Auburn, up from 20.3, and a 16.3 percent chance to beat LSU in Death Valley, up from an eight percent chance in August when the schedule was released.

The Ole Miss win percentage increased marginally, up to 37.9 from 37.5 while Kentucky went from 37.3 to 38.

Also see: What went right, what went wrong in the Swamp

The only game where the win percentage went down was Nov. 28 against Georgia. After starting at 14.8 percent it's now at a 10 percent chance for a South Carolina victory.

The Gamecocks currently rank No. 46 in the FPI with an offense at 36th nationally, a defense at 41st and a special teams unit coming in at 68th.

Of their eight remaining games, three teams rank in the top 15 of the FPI—Georgia, LSU and Auburn—with the lowest-ranked team Vanderbilt at 92.

The Gamecocks have the 25th-hardest remaining schedule, according to FPI.

Next up are the Commodores at noon in Nashville.