College football is unpredictable.
Every year teams rise and fall, come back from disappointing seasons or continue to struggle.
The Gamecocks are hoping for the former with Will Muschamp hoping the changes he made, especially on the offensive side of the ball, get the Gamecocks back to at least bowl eligibility.
One of the biggest changes was bringing in Mike Bobo as offensive coordinator, directed with resurrecting an offense that struggled mightily at times in 2019.
The Gamecocks won just four games, going 3-5 in the SEC while averaging 22.4 points and 5.2 yards per play.
Like college football as a whole, it’s hard to judge a new coordinator’s progress until games are actually played, but there is data to help try and predict what kind of growth the Gamecocks could see in year one under Bobo.
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The rules for this exercise are pretty simple: look at some anemic offenses in the SEC the last 10 years, see which replaced offensive coordinators in the offseason and compare the results in year one of the new coordinator compared to the year before.
Since 2010, 20 SEC offenses have averaged less than 5.5 points per game and scored fewer than 275 points in a season with South Carolina falling into that category in both 2016 and 2019.
Of those 20 offenses, over half replaced offensive coordinators after the season with the Gamecocks being one of those 10 this offseason, moving on from Bryan McClendon and hiring Bobo.
The offenses are:
Tennessee (2017-18): Larry Scott to Jim Chaney
Florida (2017-18): Doug Nussmeier to John Hevesy, Billy Gonzales and Dan Mullen
Missouri (2015-16): Josh Henson to Josh Heupel
Vanderbilt (2014-15): Karl Dorrell to Andy Ludwig
Florida (2013-14): Brent Pease to Kurt Roper
Kentucky (2012-13): Randy Sanders to Neal Brown
Auburn (2012-13): Scot Loeffler to Rhett Lashlee
Ole Miss (2011-12): David Lee to Matt Luke and Dan Werner
Vanderbilt (2010-11): Jimmy Kiser to John Donovan
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Of the nine offenses with data points to observe, excluding 2019 Arkansas who hired Kendall Briles and haven't played a game yet, almost all saw upticks in every major offensive category.
Only one of the nine teams won fewer games in year one of the new coordinator—Missouri in 2016—and no team won fewer conference games the following year.
Some of the growth from offense to offense was marginal—some schools only increased their points per game by one or two points and yards per play by fewer than a yard—but other instances were extreme.
Florida in 2018 increased their points per game by 12.9 points, averaged almost 91 yards more per game and won six more games.
Ole Miss also won five more games in 2012, averaging 15.4 more points and increased yards per game by 142.5 yards.
The biggest jump, though, was 2013 Auburn, which won just three games in 2011. With Gus Malzahn and Rhett Lashlee, the Tigers won 12 games, averaged almost 21 more points and 196.4 yards and played in the BCS title game.
Most of the new coordinators came by way of head coaching changes, but two did come with a sitting head coach: Florida in 2013-14 under Muschamp and Vanderbilt in 2014-15 under Derek Mason.
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The Florida year is well documented: Muschamp hired Kurt Roper and the Gators offense looked better, averaging 11.4 more points and 50.9 yards, but didn’t win enough games for the coaching staff to keep its job.
At Vanderbilt, though, Karl Dorrell left after one season for a NFL job (he’s now the head coach at Colorado) and Mason hired Andy Ludwig from Wisconsin.
Under Ludwig in 2015 the Commodores won one four games (up one from their total in 2014) and won two conference games after not winning any the year before.
So, what do all these numbers mean for Bobo and the Gamecocks?
It means the chances of seeing growth, even marginally, in the offense during 2020 are pretty high. The Gamecocks have questions to answer at a few offensive line spots and receiver but are returning three starters up front, a quarterback with 11 starts and have a talented 2020 class on campus.
The biggest question will be how much will the offense increase in year one under Bobo.
The ceiling is obviously Auburn in 2013, although that’s probably not realistic in the SEC today, but a jump similar to Ole Miss in 2012 or Vanderbilt in 2011—9.8 more points and 40.8 average yards—could be easier to envision.
