South Carolina takes on Mississippi State for the third time in just over a month as they try to earn a win to move on to the next round of the SEC Tournament. Wins in the SECT have been few and far between throughout Frank Martin's tenure, but the Gamecocks did beat the Bulldogs at home just two weeks ago. The two teams split their matchups thus far, with Mississippi State winning the first game in Starkville. The third matchup has the most on the line for both squads, and extra familiarity usually just means we're in for an extra competitive showdown between two teams who know each other's strengths and weaknesses.

Like I mentioned, the two teams have already met twice this season, with the home team winning by double-digits in each previous matchup. As the higher seed, South Carolina (7) will wear the home whites in the rubber match against Mississippi State (10), and the Gamecocks are hoping the "home team" winning trend continues in Tampa. The previous games were basically mirror images of each other, with each home team jumping out to an early lead, and then coasting to victory. South Carolina's 66-56 home win, came on the backs of them containing Mississippi State leaders Iverson Molinar and Garrison Brooks to just 11 points and 2 points respectively. In the loss in Starkville, the two stars combined for 38 of the Bulldog's 78 points, so it will be key for South Carolina's defense to lock down the potent scorers once again. Forwards D.J. Jefferies and Tolu Smith have also stepped up against the Gamecocks. Jefferies scored 10 in the first meeting and Smith scored a team-high 21 points in the losing effort at Colonial Life Arena. It will be essential for Gamecock big men to contain the combination of Brooks, Jefferies, and Smith by making them take difficult shots and crashing the boards on misses. While the big men have played decently well down the stretch defensively, they've left something to be desired on the offensive end.

While a rotation of Josh Gray, Ta'Quan Woodley, Wildens Leveque, and A.J. Wilson have played pretty well defensively, they've been abysmal on the offensive end. Over the final stretch of SEC games, in which the Gamecocks finished 5-2, the 4 big-men are averaging just 7.4 points per game combined. Gray just recently returned from a hand injury, and he gave the Gamecocks some good minutes at Auburn. Regardless of who it is, one or two of the four will need to step up this week for South Carolina to make any real noise in the SEC Tournament and set themselves up to have an argument for continuing their season. Along with the big men, South Carolina needs continued offensive production from 3 of the 5 men who have carried them through their late-season surge: Jermaine Couisnard, James Reese, Devin Carter, Keyshawn Bryant, and Erik Stevenson. The biggest difference down the stretch for the Gamecocks was the consistency of having at least 2-3 of the group step-up, even when the others might have been inconsistent. This versatile group needs to continue to hit open shots, drive the lane for fouls, and use penetration and ball movement to open up good opportunities for each other.

The Gamecocks seemingly need to make it to Sunday at a minimum to re-enter the bubble conversation for the NCAA Tournament, and they may need to win the whole Tournament outright. That seems like a pretty daunting task, but the easiest way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time, so the Gamecocks need to take their first bite tonight against the Bulldogs. The path to Sunday would have the Gamecocks likely beating a Quad II and two Quad I teams, which would greatly strengthen their NCAA and NIT tournament resume. At the moment, some projections have both South Carolina and Mississippi State slated as a 5-seed in the NIT, but you would think whoever loses this game likely takes a hit in that department. Frank Martin seems to like the Gamecocks' position for now, which he restated in his Monday press conference: "Very few teams go into the conference tournament and know their fate." We shall soon see how that fate begins to play out tonight at 6 pm.

South Carolina 69 ----------- Mississippi State 65

I think we are looking at another rock fight in this one. I find it unlikely that either team runs away with it like they did in the first two games, and this one should be a battle until the end. Both teams will likely change up their game plans a bit to try to throw off what each knows about the other, but at the end of the day, these teams will fall into their respective styles of play. Both teams are fighting for their post-season lives, and I expect this one to come down to the final minutes.