South Carolina rattled off a four-game hot streak with wins over Georgia, Ole Miss, LSU, and Mississippi State earlier this month. Now, after a loss to Alabama over the weekend, the Gamecocks have a chance to get back on track with a very winnable game against Missouri tonight. The home matchup between the Gamecocks (17-11, 8-8 SEC) and Tigers (10-19, 4-12) tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
Looking To Rebound
South Carolina was nowhere near the NCAA Tournament conversation but over the last month has put itself on the bubble of the bubble. Its four-game win streak in February, though, came to a screeching halt with Saturday’s road loss to Alabama. That loss saw the Gamecocks watch a major opportunity to put themselves on the bubble – and not just the periphery of the bubble – pass them by.
Tonight’s game does not provide them the same opportunity. This is a game that matches up with the “you can’t win a game in the first half, but you can lose it in the first half” phrase. South Carolina won’t be any closer to an NCAA Tournament berth if it beats a struggling Missouri squad that’s sitting in second-to-last place in the SEC standings. But lose tonight and that’s pretty much it. A deep run in the SEC Tournament and an appearance in the title game would likely be the only avenue for an at-large berth.
So, this matchup with the Tigers is all about damage control and gaining some momentum back heading into the regular-season finale at Auburn.
Senior Night
South Carolina’s leading scorers, Jermaine Cousinard and Erik Stevenson, have been at the forefront of the team’s latest run. Keyshawn Bryant and James Reese V have put in work, too.
The Gamecocks may be watching each of them – plus Brandon Martin and AJ Wilson – play their final home game in Columbia during Senior Night tonight.
Reese and Wilson are playing for the last time at Colonial Life Arena while Cousinard, Stevenson, Bryant, and Martin each have another season of eligibility remaining if they choose to take advantage. Coach Frank Martin said those decisions will be made after the season and there haven't been any conversations about it yet to date.
Three in the Key
Instead of labeling it Keys to the Game, since Caleb is a noted non-enthusiast of that phrase, let’s just go with that one above since I’m trying to pretend to be clever.
Balanced Scoring: The three-headed offensive attack for South Carolina during the streak has been Crousinard, Stevenson, and Bryant. Each averaged double figures during that four-game stretch. If the Gamecocks continue getting that production from them tonight then they should be able to get through Missouri and onto the next challenge Saturday against No. 5-ranked Auburn.
Hot Start: Missouri is coming off a 75-55 loss to LSU on Saturday. In that win, LSU went on a 15-0 run to start the second half, pushing a 30-24 halftime lead to 45-24 in the first five minutes of the half. Whether it’s a hot start to the first or second half, a big run like that could be too much for Missouri to bounce back from.
Win And Look Good Doing It: Style points in a matchup like this one may not do a ton for South Carolina’s tournament chances. But it could certainly help in the long game. Cameron Scott, a Class of 2024 shooting guard from Lexington (S.C.) and one of the Gamecocks’ top targets, will be attending tonight’s game. He also visited for the LSU game, and South Carolina is looking to continue making good impressions. A big win would help.
Score Prediction
South Carolina 74 ----------- Missouri 66
Frank Martin’s crew is averaging 71.6 points per game (tied for 164th in the country), and Missouri is giving up 70.6 points per game, which ranks 217th in the nation out of 358 teams.
The Tigers, on the flip side, are only scoring 64.6 points per game. That’s a bottom-of-the-barrel number that throws them all the way down into a tie for No. 322 as one of the lowest-scoring offenses in college basketball. South Carolina, I should note, is surrendering 69.8 points per contest, which is tucked just inside the top 200.
I’m predicting both the Gamecocks and Tigers to get just a hair above their season averages. South Carolina also scored 75 points a game during its recent four-game win streak and surrendered 68.3 points per game. So adding all of that up, somewhere around a 74-66 final score feels right.