National Championship Preview: UCONN

History: UConn leads 9-2. The Gamecocks have won two of the last three meetings with the Huskies. The Gamecocks suffocated the Huskies in the Bahamas back in November winning 73-57. Connecticut was held to only 3 points in the 4th quarter and that game was played pre-Paige Bueckers injury. The Huskies won the only other meeting to take place in the NCAA Tournament, winning 94-65 in the Elite 8 round in 2018. Like seemingly every UConn tournament game played prior to the Final Four, the 2018 meeting was played in the state of Connecticut.

How they got here: South Carolina defeated fellow #1 seed Louisville 72-59 on Friday night to advance their first championship game since 2017. The Gamecocks won the rebounding battle and clamped down on Louisville guard Hailey Van Lith. The Gamecocks got double figure scoring efforts from all of its' starters, led by Player of the Year Aliyah Boston with 23 points and 18 rebounds.

The Huskies have been red hot since their February 9, home loss to Villanova. Connecticut has won 15 in a row including dethroning defending champion Stanford in the Final Four. The Huskies have been pushed harder than the Gamecocks in the tournament. UConn held off a pesky UCF team in the 2nd round winning 52-47. The Huskies defeated NC State in the Elite 8 with a double overtime 91-87 thriller. In UConn's win over Stanford, the Huskies took advantage of Stanford's off shooting night. The Cardinal's shot only 34.8 from the field and 17.4 from the behind the arch.

The Matchup

Aliyah Boston has played UConn three times. She has 3 double-doubles. Boston had 22 points and 15 boards in the November win. Bueckers had 19 points, but was frustrated in the second half when Carolina ratcheted up the defensive pressure. Brea Beal and Destanni Henderson will draw the Bueckers assignment. Bueckers is going to score points and make shots, but Carolina needs to make sure she doesn't take the game over like she did during their 2020-2021 meeting or like she did against NC State in the overtimes. Zia Cooke had no problem sharing the Gamecocks strategy, “We’ve just got to limit Paige’s production,” Cooke said. “If we can do that, try to get their post players in some foul trouble, do what we have to do to get this game.”

The Gamecocks also need to limit former #1 ranked recruit Azzi Fudd. Fudd was labeled as a female Steph Curry, thus far, she hasn't lived up to that unfair comparison but she is finding her game at the collegiate level. Fudd was not 100% when the Gamecocks last saw her in the Bahamas. When Bueckers went down with a knee injury, Fudd stepped her game up. She averaged 12.6 ppg and is the Huskies best 3-point and foul shooter. The Gamecocks do not want to be playing catchup in the final two minutes with Fudd on the court. She is 15 of 16 from the line in this tournament. Expect Fudd to camp out beyond the arch as she has not yet shown the ability to create her own shot against a team the caliber of South Carolina.

UConn's bigs were very effective and efficient against Stanford. Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aliyah Edwards combined for 17 points and 18 rebounds against the larger Cardinal front court. UConn surprisingly out-rebounded Stanford 46-37 and was able to get Cameron Brink in foul trouble limiting her to only 27 minutes. If the Huskies get similar production from their frontcourt tonight, they are likely going to be cutting the nets for a 12th time. In the November meeting, Nelson-Ododa and Edwards had only 12 combined points and 8 rebounds. The Gamecocks controlled the glass that day by a margin of 17.

Boston and Bueckers are the last two recipients of the Naismith Award. Tonight's matchup will be only the second time in Women's or Men's NCAA Tournament where to Naismith winners will face off, the other was a 2009 Elite 8 game between Oklahoma's Blake Griffin and UNC's Tyler Hansbrough.

What's Going to Happen

Coach Geno Auriemma and the Huskies program is 11-0 in National Title games. The men's program is 4-0. However, none of the current Huskies have ever played for a national title, same for the Gamecocks. The margin for error in this game is very thin for both teams. If the Gamecocks can control Bueckers and keep their post players out of foul trouble they win. If UConn and Bueckers/Fudd turn this game into a 3-point contest, the Huskies bring home another championship.

Dawn Staley has been salty all postseason when asked about her team's offense. I think this team comes angry and aggressive tonight. The headliner tomorrow is going to be Zia Cooke. She and her backcourt mate Destanni Henderson are going to contribute 12+ points a pierce and the Gamecocks will eventually wear down a UConn team that plays only 7 players. Staley has several players on the bench that create defensive nightmares for UConn's scorers. I would expect Laeticia Amihere and Saniya Rivers to see some time on Fudd and Bueckers. Both are larger and more athletic than Bueckers or Fudd.

Vegas believes Carolina is better, Carolina believes that Carolina is better, and UConn still remembers the second half of the Bahamas. Gamecocks 70-64.