NCAA Tournament Thoughts Thus Far

The Gamecocks are still standing after the opening weekend, along with five other SEC schools. This weekend the Gamecocks will be competing in one of the two All-SEC super regionals. Myself and GamecockScoop beat writer Alan Cole give our thoughts on the tournament thus far and some initial thoughts on the Florida matchup, but first a quick South Carolina baseball history lesson.

South Carolina will be making its' 14th super regional appearance in program history, which is the second most in the remaining field behind LSU's 16 appearances. The Gamecocks own an 18-15 all-time record in the super-regional round, winning six super-regionals and losing seven. Carolina has twice faced SEC opponents in the super regional round, losing on both occasions at Georgia in 2007 and at Arkansas in 2018. Carolina's last super regional round win came in 2012 against future-SEC foe Oklahoma.

Under legendary coach Ray Tanner, the Gamecocks made the super regional round ten times. Carolina has since gone back twice under Chad Holbrook and Mark Kingston. The Gamecocks are seeking their 12th trip to the College World Series, which would tie them for 11th all-time, with rivals Clemson, Mississippi State, and Florida. The Gamecocks have played three times in the NCAA Tournament, all in Omaha, and have won all three meetings. Carolina holds a 54-51 series advantage against the Gators. This will be USC's second trip to Condron Family Ballpark. Florida took two of three from the Gamecocks in the final series of the 2022 regular season.

It was not a banner weekend for our Omaha picks. Alan lost six of his eight picks and I lost three of eight but we are going to regroup for this super-regional round. Below are our thoughts and predictions of the seven super-regionals that don't involve South Carolina.

Winston-Salem - Wake Forest vs. Alabama

Stephen: Wake absolutely bulldozed their way through their regional. This team doesn't have any weaknesses. Alabama's group needs to be commended for rallying behind interim coach Jason Jackson. The Tide could have easily closed shop after Brad Bohannon got up in a bizarre gambling scheme. Jackson should lose the interim tag despite what happens in Winston-Salem. Wake in 2.

Alan: Picking the top overall national seed is always dangerous, especially this weekend. But I have not seen a team in America as complete as Wake Forest and there is no reason to back off that right now. Alabama might be the best story in the country right now, but is about to run into a buzzsaw I think. Deacs roll. Wake in 2.

Hattiesburg - Southern Miss vs. Tennessee

Stephen: Tennessee fans' reactions on social media have been exactly what you would expect after the NCAA awarded Southern Miss the super regional over Knoxville. I took Tennessee to beat Clemson on their way to Omaha so I'm not picking against them here. I expect this one to go three. Tenn in 3.

Alan: This really might be the toughest one on the board to call. Two very evenly matched teams and there is already a little gasoline on the fire after the hosting selection. Both teams are loaded with pitching depth, as the Volunteers proved by winning a 14-inning marathon at Clemson and the Golden Eagles showed by being the only team to lose their regional opener and advance. I see three tight, low-scoring ballgames but ultimately the Vols sneak over the finish line and win the road super. Tenn in 3.

Stanford - Stanford vs. Texas

Stephen: These two programs have a combined 53 CWS appearances and eight championships. This a baseball blue-blood matchup that should be tightly contested throughout the weekend in the most laid-back environment you'll ever see for a super regional. Stanford in 3.

Alan: Full credit to Stanford for climbing out of a loser's bracket for the second year in a row in a home regional, but the pitching depth there is still very concerning. The fact that staff ace Quinn Mathews threw 180 pitches in the regional is a good indicator of where David Esquer feels his staff is. The Horns have two premium arms with LeBarron Johnson Jr. and Lucas Gordon, and I they end up wearing down the Cardinal. Texas in 3.

Baton Rouge- LSU vs. Kentucky

Stephen: The other all-SEC super regional will feature the greatest contrast in styles of any matchup this weekend. The Cats like to small-ball you to death, LSU just mashes home runs. Kentucky and LSU meet previously this season in Baton Rouge for a weekend series. LSU won two of three but they had to rally from a two-run deficit in the seventh inning. I still don't trust the LSU pitching staff after Paul Skenes. Kentucky in 3.

Alan: I might be walking into the same trap I did with Arkansas last weekend just having a tough time imagining the home team losing in one of the premium environments in all of college baseball. That being said, I'm doing it. I have a really hard time imagining Kentucky coming into Alex Box Stadium and ending LSU's season. I think this super going Saturday-Monday as opposed to Friday-Sunday gives LSU a sneaky advantage too, with Skenes getting an extra day of rest after his 124-pitch outing and both Ty Floyd and Thatcher Hurd getting back on a normal schedule after rain forced both to throw Sunday in the regional. LSU in 2.

Charlottesville- Virginia vs. Duke

Stephen: The only all-ACC matchup of the weekend. The Blue Devils took two of three in Charlottesville back in April. Chris Pollard has done an amazing job in Durham and should be in line for his own blue blood program job in the next couple of seasons. Duke is making their third appearance in a super regional, all under Pollard. Duke's season ends here. Virginia in 2.

Alan: Virginia felt like the quietest dominant team in the country this year. Nobody has talked about them, but Brian O'Connor has churned out another Omaha-caliber team. The pitching is deep, the offense is anchored by a potential top-10 pick in Kyle Teel and I think the Hoos roll through Duke here. Virginia in 2.

Eugene- Oregon v. Oral Roberts

Stephen: Oral Roberts should have never been a 4-seed. They are 49-11. The Golden Eagles haven't been to the CWS since 1978. This is the program's second super regional appearance. They are no fluke. Oral Roberts in 3.

Alan: Pretty much second everything Stephen said. Their RPI was far too low to get into hosting or even a No. 2 seed position, but no way should they have been a No. 4 seed. That offense comes in waves and they've blistered through the schedule all season. I think they go out to Eugene and become the first No. 4 seed since Stony Brook in 2012 to reach the College World Series. Oral Roberts in 3.

Fort Worth- TCU vs. Indiana State

Stephen: Despite being the higher seed, Indiana State is traveling this week due to Terre Haute's prior commitment to host the Special Olympics. The ISU Athletic Department has stated that the school/city doesn't have the infrastructure or resources to host both events. (It didn't stop Kentucky from housing visiting teams in dorm rooms). Having said that, it wasn't going to matter. TCU in 2.

Alan: The Frogs have a claim as the hottest team in America right now. After straddling the bubble well into April, they're 15-1 in their last 16 games including as impressive a regional sweep as you'll ever see with three dominant performances in Fayetteville. They're on a 2022 Ole Miss type of run right now, and that continues into Omaha. TCU in 2.

Stephen: I think it's going to be really tough to beat Florida five of six this season. To do so, the Gamecocks would have needed a healthy Noah Hall, which they won't have this weekend. The Gamecocks are 10-10 in true road games this season and haven't won a road series since March. That series win was against cellar-dweller Mississippi State. Carolina is 5-9 away from Columbia since the MSU series win. Florida is 33-6 at home this season and hasn't lost a series in Gainesville all season. Florida in 3.

If the Gamecocks can get out of Gainesville, a run in Omaha looks very possible. If South Carolina defeats Florida, Virginia would be the only possible national seed the Gamecocks would see in Omaha before the championship series. Unfortunately, their opponent this weekend is better than all of the remaining teams in Carolina's side of the bracket.

Alan: I think this whole thing comes down to what kind of adjustments Florida's arms can make from the first series in April. The Gators have arguably the best 1-2-3 starting rotation in the country with Jac Caglianone, Brandon Sproat, and Hurston Waldrep. All three guys will likely be first-round draft picks when they are eligible, but South Carolina torched all three guys at Founders Park. If Florida can find course-correct there, it is very difficult to imagine South Carolina getting out of here.

That being said, I think this offense is better right now, too. Will McGillis is healthy after missing that Florida series, Gavin Casas seems to have his swing back and Talmadge LeCroy is red hot. Pitching-wise Will Sanders is the wild card, but has historically saved his best performances for the Gators. In his last two starts against Florida. The junior right-hander has 29 career strikeouts in just 18 innings against Florida.

I am not saying it will be easy. It will probably go the distance. Undoubtedly, heroics will be required. They will need some luck, and maybe a miracle play or two on defense (Scott Wingo will be in the building, has anyone checked on Jake Williams?). But I think the Gamecocks find a way to get this done and advance to Omaha. South Carolina in 3.

Alan and I both lost their predicted champion in the regional round when Vanderbilt and Arkansas failed to escape their own regionals. As noted above, the "right side" of the bracket experienced far more chaos on the opening weekend. I hate to write this considering they are the Gamecocks' opponent this weekend, but I'm taking Florida to win their second CWS crown in program history.