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SEC Bowl Projections - Fourth Edition

With the regular season over and the holiday season upon us, the SEC has turned into Alabama and the Land of Misfit Toys.

The unfortunate consequence of the Crimson Tide’s 30-12 Iron Bowl victory over Auburn, the SEC’s second-highest ranked team, as well as the results of other rivalry games is the Tide enter next weekend’s SEC Championship game as the only conference team with more than eight victories. Ouch.

How poorly did the SEC fare over Thanksgiving weekend? Six teams entered Week 13 with seven or eight victories. They ALL lost. The list includes the three SEC teams ranked behind Alabama in the latest College Football Playoff selection committee rankings released last Tuesday night (Auburn, Florida, Tennessee).

Just one SEC team won a rivalry game against a non-SEC opponent: Kentucky. The Wildcats were four touchdown underdogs to Louisville, but pulled out a 41-38 victory with a field goal in the waning seconds.

The result of all those setbacks was the gap between Alabama and the rest of the SEC widened, and the perception of the SEC as a one-team league grew exponentially.

Heading into conference championship weekend, here is how the conference stacks up in terms of victories following the conclusion of the regular season:

12: Alabama

11: None

10: None

9: None

8: Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M

7: Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU

6: South Carolina, Vanderbilt

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5: Ole Miss, Mississippi State

4: Missouri

Possible At-Large Berth (If not enough 6-6 teams to fill all bowl slots): Mississippi State (5-7), Ole Miss (5-7)

Bowl Ineligible: Missouri (4-8)

Barring a blowout loss to Florida in the SEC Championship game (very unlikely scenario considering the Tide’s defense + Florida’s struggling offense), Alabama is a virtual lock for the four-team playoff.

Because the Sugar Bowl is not hosting a semifinal game this year, the bowl is contractually obligated to take the SEC champion (Florida, but only if they upset Alabama) or the highest ranked SEC team behind Alabama in the final CFB playoff standings.

Based on the latest major polls released Sunday, either the Gators or Auburn are most likely to happily accept the Sugar Bowl bid. Florida is No. 16 in the Coaches poll and No. 15 in the AP poll after losing to Sunshine State rival Florida State, while Auburn is No. 19 and No. 18, respectively. LSU rose from unranked to No. 21 in both polls after upsetting Texas A&M Thanksgiving night in College Station.

Tennessee blew a golden opportunity to position themselves to grab the Sugar Bowl berth by losing to Vanderbilt, 45-34, in Nashville. This, the Vols will fall into a ‘Pool of Six’ bowl.

If the SEC Championship game unfolds as expected, we’ll learn the answer to this key question concerning the Sugar Bowl next Sunday – how much will Florida be penalized by the committee for losing to Alabama in Atlanta? If the answer is a lot, Auburn could be headed to New Orleans.

How will the rest of the SEC-affiliated bowl games fill their slots? Remember, the conference’s bowl picture is divided into four tiers:

1. College Football Playoff + Contract/Access Bowls (Sugar);

2. Citrus Bowl (Orlando, Fla.);

3. Pool of Six Bowls (Belk, Liberty, Music City, Outback, TaxSlayer, Texas);

4. Last Two Bowls (Birmingham, Independence).

The Pool of Six bowls do not select in any particular order. Instead, the SEC office assigns the teams in consultation with the schools and bowl games.

Where do the Gamecocks land? The biggest issue they face is the SEC currently has nine teams with 7+ wins and nine spaces in the first three tiers (2 in Playoff/Big 6 Bowls + 1 to Citrus + Pool of 6). Thus, every slot could be filled by a team that is 7-5 or better.

Realistically, the only Pool of Six Bowl the Gamecocks would appear to have a chance is the Belk Bowl in Charlotte. Even though geography dictates that bowl remains a possibility, assigning the Gamecocks there would require a 7-win team dropping down to the Birmingham or Independence bowls as a 6-win USC teams rises to the next tier.

By far, the most likely 7-win team to fall to the last two bowls is Kentucky. However, Nashville is just three hours from Lexington (roughly the same distance as Columbia to Atlanta), the Wildcats haven’t been to a bowl game since 2010 (lost to Pittsburgh in Birmingham) and the Wildcats are coming off an emotional hard-fought win over their hated in-state rival.

The Gamecocks? Well, you know what happened Saturday night in the Upstate.

How much confidence do bowl organizers have in USC to sell a decent amount of bowl tickets? Remember, the last time the Gamecocks appeared in a bowl game other than Shreveport was 2013 when they were coming off their fifth straight win over Clemson and Jadeveon Clowney was arguably the best known player in college football.

Vanderbilt’s win over Tennessee and Ole Miss’ stunning Egg Bowl blowout loss to Mississippi State gives the SEC 11 bowl eligible teams. Riding a strong defense, the Commodores are bowl eligible for the first time in Derek Mason’s three-year tenure.

Right now, the most likely scenario for the 6-6 Gamecocks in the wake of Saturday night’s disheartening loss is they land in one of the final two bowls in the SEC’s pecking order. The Birmingham Bowl picks before the Independence, so theoretically they could decide to go with Vanderbilt, leaving the Gamecocks with their second trip to Shreveport in three seasons.

But Vanderbilt has a much smaller fan base than USC, and that is always a major consideration for any bowl game.

Mississippi State has a high team APR, positioning the Bulldogs to get into a bowl game even with a 5-7 record. According to the national media, there will be no more than 78 bowl-eligible teams for 80 bowl spots, so the Bulldogs should go bowling.

SEC BOWL PROJECTIONS (After Week 13)

Four-Team Playoff: Alabama

Sugar (New Orleans): Auburn

Citrus (Orlando): Florida

Outback (Tampa): LSU

TaxSlayer (Jacksonville): Georgia

Music City (Nashville): Kentucky

Texas (Houston): Texas A&M

Belk (Charlotte): Tennessee

Liberty (Memphis): Arkansas

Birmingham (Birmingham): South Carolina

Independence (Shreveport): Vanderbilt

At-Large (Based on APR): Mississippi State

Bowl Ineligible: Missouri, Ole Miss.

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