Who: #1 South Carolina 28-0 (15-0) vs Tennessee 17-10 (10-5), Colonia Life Arena, Columbia, SC
Time/TV: 12:00 on ESPN
Line: Best Guess- SC -24.5. Total 145.5
History: Historically the Lady Vols have dominated this series leading 49-13. Of those 49 wins, 43 belong to the legendary Pat Summitt. When Summitt stepped down in 2012, she was 43-2 against the Gamecocks. She was 6-1 against SC under Dawn Staley. Under Staley, the Gamecocks began to turn the series around. Carolina went 5-5 against Summitt's replacement Holly Warlick. Staley and the Gamecocks are 6-1 against current UT Coach Kellie Harper. South Carolina is 3-5 in games played in Columbia in the Staley Era and 4-21 overall.
Last Meeting: February 15, 2024, Carolina 66-55 in one of the closest games of the season. The Gamecocks trailed the Lady Vols by three at halftime and went into the fourth quarter tied at 48. Carolina's defense suffocated UT in the fourth quarter allowing only seven points. The Gamecocks allowed only two field goals the entire fourth quarter. On a night were seemingly all of Carolina's guards were off, the posts took over. Kamilla Cardoso had a team-high 18 points to go with 10 rebounds. Ashlyn Watkins scored 14 points and grabbed 10 boards. While her shot was off the mark, Raven Johnson pulled down 15 rebounds and dished out five assists.
Scouting Tennessee
The Lady Vols played three games since their February 15th home loss to the Gamecocks. Tennessee won at Vandy, lost at home to LSU, and won at A&M. The 15-point home loss to LSU was closer than it appeared with the Tigers pulling away late.
Tennessee has been inconsistent this season but like most teams, they are better at home. UT has only been beaten twice at Thompson-Boling Arena this season. They lost back-to-back games against Notre Dame (by 5) and Ohio State (by 20). The Lady Vols can be trouble when Rickea Jackson and Jewel Spear are both on during the same game. Jackson, the Mississippi State transfer, is having an All-SEC caliber season in her second and final year in Knoxville. The fifth year senior is averaging 19.2 points and 7.9 rebounds a game. Wake Forest transfer Jewel Spear is averaging 13.3 points and 4.7 boards a game. Spear is UT's best 3-point shooter connecting on 43.5% of her attempts. Powell is also fifth year senior in the Lady Vols backcourt having transferred to Knoxville from Minnesota in 2022. She operates as the team's point guard and leads Tennessee with 4.3 assists per game. Most Vols will tell you that they were expecting a little more out of frontcourt duo of Hollingshead and Tamari Key. Key missed most of last season with a blood clotting issue, so it's a positive that 6'6 senior is able to play her final season. Between the two 6'5+ centers, Tennessee is getting 9.5 points and 8.7 rebounds a night. Carolina gets 13.8 and 9.8 out of Cardoso alone. Cardoso also has a 67-45 advantage in blocked shots over the Tennessee duo.
Historically, winning 25 games and advancing to the Sweet 16 won't cut it in Knoxville. That's what Harper has done the last two seasons. How long will Tennessee accept be passed by South Carolina and LSU? Once Texas enters the SEC next season, they will jump the other UT in the pecking order as well. Harper is going to need to finish strong this season and have another Top 5 portal haul or her seat is going to get warm next season, despite winning three National Championships as a player under Summitt.
Senior Day
South Carolina will recognize its three seniors – Kamilla Cardoso, Te-Hina Paopao and Sakima Walker – in a pregame ceremony that will start at approximately 11:40.
All three have the option of exercising the extra COVID season and could opt to return. Staley said she has not discussed a potential return with any of the three, but on Friday during media appearance she made a semi-joking pitch for one more year.
“We kind of want to get through Senior Day and hopefully it’s sold out and they can feel the atmosphere like no other and decide to come back,” she said.
Our intel suggest Cardoso is likely headed to the WNBA where she is projected as a Top 5 pick. Paopao is undecided but could be leaning towards a return. I have not heard anything definitive on Walker.
Prediction
Don't expect the Gamecocks to lose on Senior Day. The last Senior Day loss came in 2019 when South Carolina fell to SEC Champion Mississippi State. Don't expect this game to be as close the meeting in Knoxville last month. Gamecock 81-59.