The Curious Case Of Frank Martin: What's Next For MBB?

The South Carolina men's basketball team finds itself in a familiar position, slightly better than average, but not quite good enough to make the Big Dance.

After last night's second-half meltdown vs. Mississippi State, the Gamecocks are almost certainly not making the NCAA Tournament, and an NIT Bid is still not assured at this point either. The Gamecocks (18-13, 9-9 SEC regular-season record) probably reached their full potential in the regular season, given their personnel, and despite being bounced in the opening round of the SEC Tournament for the third straight year, there are some positives to take away from a team with seven first-year starters.

There are also a lot of question marks about the future of the program and Frank Martin's role in that future. I recently posted a poll on our forum (which you definitely should visit) discussing whether or not Martin did enough this season to keep his job. The results were pretty split, with a few qualifiers, but the majority of this sampling seems done with the Martin era at South Carolina. Let's take a look at some reasons they may be justified, but also why the answer might not be a clear and easy one.

Martin had a bit of a rebuilding job after Darrin Horn's disappointing run with South Carolina ended in 2012. Martin did a great job of turning the program around, despite the cupboard being bare, so I'm going to leave out that two-year rebuild and just focus on the program since Martin built it up a bit. I'm also going to eliminate the Covid year last year. Maybe it could've been handled better, but the whole country struggled last year.

Let's look at the records since 2014.

2014–15 South Carolina 17–16 (6–12) T–11th

2015–16 South Carolina 25–9 (11–7) T–3rd NIT Second Round

2016–17 South Carolina 26–11 (12–6) T–3rd NCAA Division I Final Four

2017–18 South Carolina 17–16 (7–11) T–11th

2018–19 South Carolina 16–16 (11–7 ) T–4th

2019–20 South Carolina 18–13 (10–8) T–6th Postseason canceled Covid

2021–22 South Carolina 18–13 (9–9) T–5th (unknown)

I would argue that the Gamecocks were robbed of an NCAA berth in 2015-16, and it's unclear if they would've earned one in 2019-20. Martin's overall record mirrors the school's historical one. South Carolina basketball's all-time winning percentage sits at approximately .531.

Martin's winning percentage at South Carolina? Approximately .539. This leads to a few big questions about hiring and firing philosophy.

If so, Martin would seem to fit into that structure, with most of his seasons ending right around .500 and two more exceptional seasons in 2015-16 and 2016-17. Perhaps fans expected more, though.

Martin made the NCAA tournament four out of five seasons when he coached at Kansas State, whose all-time record is also somewhat mediocre, with a .581 winning percentage over the course of its history. While it is inarguable that Martin has had more success than any South Carolina coach since George Felton at the least, and perhaps even since Gamecock great Frank McGuire, it is clear that Martin hasn't had the same postseason success he had with the Wildcats. If instead the idea is that South Carolina's program needs to change its mindset and strive for better than consistently mediocre with moments of greatness – and there is a belief that Martin will never elevate beyond that here – then that train of thought brings with it a few more questions without clear answers.

If the Gamecocks decide to move on from Martin after this season, there are a few "maybes" that become almost definitely "no's". If he stays around, maybe Jermaine Couisnard and Erik Stevenson stick around for one more year. Maybe GG Jackson reclassifies to 2022 and signs with the Gamecocks. Maybe the new freshmen, like Bryce Lindsey, who just won a game for his team in walk-off fashion, and the Gamecock returners meld together and make a run as early as next year. In an SEC that is sure to look different after several big names move on to the NBA, it's not impossible to imagine that next year is one of the "exceptional" seasons I mentioned before. If Martin is fired at the end of this season, the answer to all of those questions is almost assuredly "no" instead.

Maybe all of those maybes don't matter to most of the fanbase or to athletic director Ray Tanner. Maybe Martin has already missed on enough maybes: like maybe he'll sign Zion Williamson or Ja Morant or maybe he'll follow up that Final Four run with some consistent success. If it is indeed time for a change, one major question looms: What does the coaching search look like? And I don't just mean who are the candidates. Here's a list of coaches that Ray Tanner has hired for the major sports:

Chad Holbrook Baseball 199–105 (.655) – Resigned

Will Muschamp Football 28-30 (.482) – Fired

Mark Kingston Baseball 111-81 (.578) – On the hot seat?

Shane Beamer Football 7-6 (.538) – On the up and up?

Frank Martin and Dawn Staley were hired by the previous administration. Now, maybe four hires aren't enough to decide whether Ray Tanner can run an effective coaching search, but it certainly shows that a coaching search is not a guarantee you get the right guy on the first try.

Are the Gamecocks ready to throw away stability and all the "maybe" signs of hope for next year for a chance at landing someone who will exceed, rather than simply meet, the accomplishments of the program for the last 40 years? Who, then, do you go after?

Martin was an accomplished Division I coach who had never won less than 21 games in a season before previous AD Eric Hyman hired him at South Carolina. Who is out there with a more deserving résumé in 2022?

I know I wouldn't want to be the one having to decide any of this.