WBB: Final Four Preview: Louisville

History: SC leads 17-4. All but one of those meeting have come when the two schools were members of the Metro Conference. The only matchup in the Dawn Staley era was a resounding 83-59 Carolina victory on a neutral floor in November of 2016.

How they got here: South Carolina got to Final Four the same way they navigated the regular season, with dominating defense and rebounding. South Carolina shut down a red-hot Creighton team in the Elite 8, allowing the Bluejays only 50 points on 37% from the field. The Gamecocks have also controlled the glass in their 4 NCAA tournament games with a rebounding margin of +94.

Louisville has used their pressure defense to punch their ticket to the program's 4th Final Four, all in the Jeff Walz era. The Cardinals had big 4th quarters to pull away from Tennessee and Michigan in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Sophomore guard Hailey Van Lith has carried her team offensively while becoming the only Louisville player in history with 4 straight 20+ point games in the NCAA Tournament.

Elsewhere around the tournament: This year's Final Four features the most consistent programs over the last 5 years of women's basketball. Stanford vs UConn should be a fantastic matchup. From a crowd advantage stand point, I would think that knocking out Minnesota native Paige Bueckers would benefit the Gamecocks/Cardinals in the championship game.

The Matchup

The national media is going to tell you that Louisville plays bigger than their lineup's stature. I disagree. The Cardinals rank only 59th nationally in rebounding margin at +5 a game. The Gamecocks have a rebounding margin of +17.9 a game. Louisville also ranks 23rd in blocked shots, the Gamecocks are 1st. One thing that Louisville does do exceptionally well is pressure the basketball. Destanni Henderson and Zia Cooke can expect to have Cardinal guards in their face whenever they have the ball, no matter their location. Limiting turnovers will be critical for the Gamecocks in this game.

From a matchup prospective, it will be interesting to see how Staley chooses to guard Van Lith. I would expect to see Van Lith be guarded by multiple Gamecocks throughout the night, but if she starts to get to the rim with ease, expect Staley to turn to ole' reliable Brea Beal. While Van Lith is the offensive star, Syracuse transfer Emily Engstler is probably Louisville's best all around player. The 6'1 Senior is a projected top 10 WNBA draft pick this summer. She is averaging 11.8 ppg and is the Cardinals leading rebounder with 9.4 ppg. Victoria Saxton will likely draw Engstler.

No one ever wants to see officials be the star of championship level games, or any games for that matter, but Gamecock fans should hope this game resembles more of the Miami game when it comes to what constitutes a foul. The Cardinals have a 10 player rotation and are not shy about picking up fouls with physical play. Louisville's opponents have shot almost 100 more free throws than the Cardinals on the season. While Louisville has quality depth, if Van Lith or Engstler get in foul trouble the reserve will be a significant drop off. (This is true of all four remaining team's best two players).

Olivia Cochran will mostly be tasked with trying to slow down consensus National Player of Year Aliyah Boston.

What's Going to Happen

There is a lot of similarity between these two squads. Both are defensive first teams. South Carolina averages giving up 50.5 ppg and Louisville 55.2 ppg. The Gamecocks average 71 points and the Cardinals 72. The Cardinals have struggled against other teams that are bigger and can defend the basketball. Advantage Gamecocks. Louisville's last three loses came to Miami in the ACC Tournament, UNC in Chapel Hill, and NC State in Raleigh. Their next one comes in Minnesota to South Carolina. Folks, there is a reason Vegas has this game at 8 points and the Stanford/UConn game at 1.5. Gamecocks 67-57.

I'm also going Stanford over UConn. The Huskies are thinner in the post after the injury to Dorka Juhasz and that will be the difference. Also, give me Duke and Kansas advancing on the men's side tomorrow night.