#1 South Carolina and #2 Connecticut meet Monday in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship, the first of at least two matchups this season.
1. Kind of a big deal
Less than 15 minutes after South Carolina’s rout of Oregon ended, making the game between South Carolina and UConn official, ESPN announced that the game was far too important to air on ESPN2 and would be on ESPN instead. Not long after, the AP announced it would delay its top 25 poll, which would normally be announced while this game is being played, until Tuesday because of the game.
So the game is a big deal to a lot of people.
“We’re excited,” Dawn Staley said. “We chose to play in this tournament because we’ve got an opportunity to play the top teams in the country. That’s our theme all season long so why not?”
Ironically, it might matter least to the Gamecocks and Huskies. They will probably still be #1 and #2 on Tuesday, or perhaps the loser drops all the way to #3 in the rankings, which are entirely meaningless. They will certainly play again in Columbia in January, and because they are generally regarded as the two best teams in the country, they may well meet a third time at the Final Four in Minneapolis.
This game provides a great measuring stick and a really spiffy feather in your cap, but even then you get a redo in a couple months. If either team has a secret weapon they surely won’t show it Monday, they’ll save it for that potential third meeting.
2. Assist/Turnover
South Carolina’s ball movement has been outstanding this weekend, with 26 assists on Saturday and another 16 on Sunday (on 28 baskets). But turnovers have remained an issue. When Staley was asked Saturday about the 26 assists, the most South Carolina has had since 2016, Staley answered, “I’m looking at that other column (turnovers) and cringing.”
The Gamecocks had 22 turnovers Saturday and 16 Sunday, and are averaging 17.8 turnovers per game this season (against 16.8 assists). It’s a testament to how good the Gamecock offense was that it could score 88 and 80 points despite the turnovers, but sooner or later they will catch up to the Gamecocks.
Monday’s game will be the third in three days for both teams, which typically leads to a slower pace and closer score. That makes protecting the ball all the more important.
3. Fatigue
Speaking of, although South Carolina has had less time off between games, it should be the fresher team. UConn has played the early game each day, while South Carolina played the last game Saturday, moved up to the second game Sunday, and then the early game Monday. However, UConn really only plays seven players and South Carolina plays nine or ten. On top of that, UConn had to sweat out a close game in the fourth quarter against South Florida Sunday, while South Carolina has barely played its starters in the fourth quarter this weekend.
Four of UConn’s starters have averaged at least 29.6 minutes this weekend, topped by Paige Bueckers’ 33.4. South Carolina hasn’t even had a player go over 29 minutes. If South Carolina can wear down UConn, which is a big if because the Huskies are used to logging heavy minutes, the Gamecocks should have the advantage.
4. Post play
The Gamecocks and Huskies are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to their bigs. The gamecocks went to the Bahamas with the stated goal of getting their bigs more involved. They’ve accomplished that in a big way, getting big scoring games from Aliyah Boston and seeing Kamilla Cardoso flirt with a triple-double against Buffalo.
On the other hand, UConn is still where South Carolina was after three games, struggling to get its forwards involved. Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aliyah Edwards, who played for Canada in the Olympics with Laeticia Amihere, both averaged double figures scoring last season, but have scuffled this season. Nelson-Ododa’s production has decreased each game and she is now averaging 6.7 points and 7.0 rebounds, although she did have seven assists Sunday. Edwards was scoreless against South Florida and is averaging just 5.7 points and 3.0 rebounds.
In the game last season, Nelson-Ododa was limited by foul trouble but still had six points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Edwards helped pick up the slack with four points and seven rebounds, but also got into foul trouble. With the pair limited, Boston went wild for 17 points, 15 rebounds, and three blocks, although she missed the game-winning layup in regulation. Now Boston has extra help in Cardoso, so it’s tough to see how UConn can win without more production from Nelson-Ododa and Edwards.
5. Scouting the Huskies
Freshman Azzi Fudd scored 18 points on six threes against South Florida, but Bueckers has been the hero for UConn this season. She scored a career-high 34 against Arkansas and 21 against South Florida. She also memorably had 31 against South Carolina last season, including all nine in overtime. If there’s a way to turn that into a negative it’s that UConn can sometimes be a little too reliant on Bueckers.
Given the short preparation, South Carolina probably won’t have anything exotic planned for defending Bueckers (and if they do, they’d probably want to save it for the possible Final Four game anyway). Last season, the 5-11 Bueckers was too long for 5-9 Zia Cooke and too quick for 6-2 Brea Beal. They’ll get another crack, but South Carolina also has a pair of freshmen it can try: Bree Hall and Saniya Rivers. Hall is a solid defender who is close to 6-2 and Rivers has the length to be an excellent defender. However, Hall hasn’t faced anybody like Bueckers yet this season and Rivers is still a work in progress. Staley likes to try to wear down opposing scorers, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see her throw all four at Bueckers.
Of course, UConn has plenty of talent around Bueckers that is capable of stepping up. Aside from Fudd, who has started her career 8-18 from three, there are familiar faces Christyn Williams, who scored 31 against Minnesota, and Evina Westbrook, the Tennessee transfer who is averaging 11.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game.
The Ws
Who: #1 South Carolina (5-0) vs #2 Connecticut (3-0)
When: Noon, Monday, November 22
Where: Imperial Arena, Paradise Island, Bahamas
Watch: ESPN