South Carolina tips off Super Bowl Sunday with a critical conference game against Tennessee.
1. Recapping Ole Miss
In case you somehow missed it, on Thursday South Carolina set program records and tied the NCAA records by holding Ole Miss scoreless in the first quarter and giving up just two points in the entire first half. Dawn Staley downplayed the accomplishment, pointing out that it required Ole Miss to miss some open shots, and there are still things to work on in preparation for better teams.
“I don’t think all of that was our defense,” Staley said. “They got good looks at the basket, they just didn’t make the shots. I think we have some things we need to clean up. Although our ball screen defense bothered them, I don’t think our angles were particularly good. We’ve got to clean that part of it up.”
2. No Amihere
South Carolina will be without freshman forward Laeticia Amihere against Tennessee and Arkansas, and likely UConn. Amihere will be in Belgium with Team Canada for the FIBA Women’s Olympic Qualifying Tournament. Canada will be competing against Belgium, Sweden, and Japan for a spot in the Olympics. The top two finishers plus Japan (as the host nation) will qualify for the Olympics. Canada will play Belgium (February 6, 2:35 PM ET), Sweden (February 8, 2:35 PM ET) and Japan (February 9, 12:05 PM ET). Amihere also missed the Appalachian State game earlier in the season due to Team Canada commitments.
Amihere is coming off a career-high 16 points against Ole Miss. Her absence leaves South Carolina thin in the post. That puts more pressure on Victaria Saxton as the only post player off the bench, and there is a good chance that wings LeLe Grissett and Brea Beal could see minutes as a stretch four in a small lineup.
3. Key stretch #2
Due in part because of how good South Carolina is this year, the Gamecocks’ SEC schedule is divided up in an odd way. There are some really bad teams in the league this year, and South Carolina is so good that the middle of the pack teams (think LSU, Georgia) that are usually tough outs don’t strike as much fear. As a result, there are basically three tough three-game stretches: Kentucky-Alabama-Arkansas to open the year, Kentucky-Florida-Texas A&M to end the year, and this one: Tennessee-Arkansas-Connecticut.
Arkansas is always a tough matchup because of their style of play. Connecticut is Connecticut. And Tennessee is, surprisingly, South Carolina’s biggest threat in the SEC (more on that below). Tennessee isn’t the Tennessee of old (I’ve made the case that South Carolina is the Tennessee of old), but the Lady Vols still have pride, and they tend to play their best against South Carolina.
4. Around the SEC
South Carolina is 8-0 in the SEC for the first time since 2017, the last year it won the regular season title. It is a game up on the two second-place teams, Mississippi State and Tennessee. South Carolina already beat Mississippi State in their only matchup, giving the Gamecocks a cushion and the tiebreaker for tournament seeding (the SEC does not break ties for the regular season). South Carolina and Tennessee play their only game this weekend. A win would put South Carolina in firm command of the SEC. A loss would turn things into chaos.
Injuries have reshaped the SEC race dramatically. First, Texas A&M lost preseason player of the year Chennedy Carter to a sprained ankle on January 9 against LSU. Initially, there was optimism that Carter wouldn’t miss a game (Texas A&M had an off day before its next game), but Carter has now been out five games and counting. She has returned to practice, and there was a chance she could have played Thursday against Georgia, but she missed her fifth straight game. The Aggies lost the LSU game and are 4-1 since, taking advantage of the weak part of their schedule. That ends Sunday with a rematch against LSU, and Texas A&M has to hope Carter is back soon. Texas A&M is currently two games behind South Carolina.
On Thursday another star player was sidelined when Kentucky announced that Rhyne Howard, who has taken over as the SEC’s leading scorer in Carter’s absence, will be out until mid-February with a broken pinky finger on her left (non-shooting hand). Like Texas A&M and Carter, Kentucky benefits from having the weak part of its schedule up. The Wildcats beat Missouri on Thursday, and they have Florida and Alabama next, before a trip to Arkansas and a bye. Then things get interesting. Kentucky plays Mississippi State on February 16, which happens to be mid-February. A week later is the rematch against South Carolina, who is two games ahead of Kentucky in the SEC.
Less severe, but perhaps no less significant, on Thursday Mississippi State revealed that center Jessika Carter has a bone spur in her foot. Carter has been playing through it, but it’s worth noting that she struggled against South Carolina and Mississippi State as a team has been sluggish since that game. Vic Schaefer said after the game that it will be important for her to get healthy down the stretch.
5. Scouting the Lady Vols
Tennessee is an interesting team. They are ranked 22 by both the media and coaches, but have an RPI of just 49 and the worst strength of schedule in the SEC. Tennessee got a lot of credit for an early-season win at Notre Dame, before we realized that Notre Dame had completely dropped off this season (next to last in the ACC). Tennessee doesn’t shoot or score particularly well, and it relies almost entirely on Rennia Davis for offense.
But the Lady Vols keep winning because the things they do well, they do really well. Relying on Davis for offense is a pretty good strategy (18.1 points per game), and they defend and rebound exceptionally well. The Lady Vols allow just 55.3 points per game, best in the SEC and 9th in the nation. They are third in the nation in rebounding margin, and first in defensive rebounding. That sets up quite a battle on the glass. The Gamecocks are fourth in the nation in rebounding margin and second in offensive rebounds. The Gamecocks have done some of their best work against the best rebounders, like when they outrebounded Baylor, second in rebounding margin, by 14.
“They’re like no other team that we’ve played,” Staley said. “They’re long at every position and they play a lot of zone to try to utilize their length to make you make mistakes.
“We’ve got to play fast and get up and down the floor and not allow their height to bother us in the half court.”
Beal will draw the assignment of guarding Davis. It has been a team effort, but Beal has thrived defensively against some of her best opponents. She was so successful against Kentucky’s Rhyne Howard that Kentucky had to move Howard to a different position to get her away from Beal (Staley doesn’t like to cross match, and Howard’s defensive shortcomings at power forward offset her offense). Davis will be a similar challenge for Beal and South Carolina.
“She’s long, she can score three ways,” Staley said. “It’s a tough matchup. We’ve got to put Brea Beal in a position where she can contest and be there and make it a little bit harder for her.”
The Ws
Who: #1 South Carolina (20-1, 8-0) vs #22 Tennessee (17-4, 7-1)
When: Sunday, February 2, 1:00 pm
Where: Colonial Life Arena
Watch: ESPN2
