I made nine predictions before the season. How do they look halfway through the season?
- South Carolina takes care of NC State in the opener.
The Gamecocks don’t like losing two years in a row (see Maryland and Baylor in 2019, Duke in 2017, Arkansas ever since the SEC Tournament loss). They won’t forget last season’s loss and they’ll get their revenge. I’ll be wrong if: The Gamecocks don’t understand their roles and are unsettled so early in the season.
VERDICT: South Carolina was definitely still figuring things out, but they pulled out the win.
- Zia Cooke will lead the Gamecocks in scoring again.
Cooke led the Gamecocks last season with 15.9 points per game. Aliyah Boston was second on the team, and I expect her to be better this season, but the arrival of Kamilla Cardoso means Boston will play fewer minutes to help keep her fresh for March. Henderson was the third-leading scorer, but she will also lose some playing time thanks to Raven Johnson. People like to complain about Cooke because she isn’t a prototypical point guard, but that ignores the fact she doesn’t play point guard. When she gets hot (see Florida or Stanford), there is no more dangerous scorer in the country. I’ll be wrong if: Cooke gets hurt, or if Saniya Rivers or Bree Hall is good enough from day one to eat into Cooke’s minutes.
VERDICT: Not too good. Cooke is mired in a shooting slump over the past month that has dropped her scoring average to 11.4, the lowest of her career. Meanwhile Aliyah Boston has taken over as the Gamecocks’ go-to scorer and is averaging 17.0 points, the most by any player since A’ja Wilson’s senior season. I’ve been as big a believer in Boston as anybody, and even I didn’t see this jump coming.
- Saniya Rivers will be the freshman with the biggest impact.
I keep going back and forth between Rivers and Raven Johnson. Johnson fills an immediate need at backup point guard, but Dawn Staley will lean on experience, especially during the non-conference schedule, which means lots of Destanni Henderson. Rivers brings something different to the team: a big guard who can score and space the floor. Staley also raved about Rivers’ passing ability, and Rivers is stronger than she looks. I’m leaning heavily on the eye-test from the open scrimmage, when Rivers whipped a one-handed pass to Victaria Saxton for a layup, scored, defended, and was the most impressive freshman. She’s one of those athletes that just glides, and she’ll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in the open court. I’ll be wrong if: It’s Johnson because of the roster needs.
VERDICT: Likely true, although not at all as I had envisioned. Johnson’s knee injury ended her season after just nine minutes. Early on, Bree Hall got the most consistent minutes, thanks to her defense. Rivers got off to a slow start, missing the first three games. She hasn’t been the offensive spark off the bench I expected, but Riviers has done enough as a defender and ball-handler to get on the court. Sania Feagin has flashed potential in limited minutes, but she remains stuck behind a deep, veteran front court.
- South Carolina will lose at least one non-conference game.
There are dreams of an undefeated season, but the strength of schedule is prohibitive. I don’t know which one (other than NC State), but with Stanford, Maryland, UConn (potentially twice) and more on the schedule somebody will get the better of the Gamecocks. I’ll be wrong if: The Gamecocks find their groove from the opening tip and adopt the same killer instinct they had in the second half of the 2019-20 season.
VERDICT: I find myself in the strange position of needing a UConn win in January. I really thought the grind of all the elite competition would catch up to South Carolina at least once. The grind did take a little bit of a toll, but the Gamecocks tapped into the survive and advance mentality they usually need in March. It wasn't always pretty, but they managed to take care of business even without playing their best basketball. Truly impressive. They could still lose to UConn, but that looks unlikely against the struggling Huskies.
- South Carolina will win the SEC regular season title.
Defending champion Texas A&M has too much to replace, while South Carolina got even stronger. Of the other contenders, only Georgia, which returns most of last season’s team and adds a top 15 recruiting class, appears to have gotten significantly better. Kentucky also has tons of talent and could be a contender if they finally put it all together, but they’ve fooled me too many times in the past to trust them. I’ll be wrong if: Georgia catches lightning in a bottle.
VERDICT: Too soon to tell, but I feel good about this prediction. Unfortunately it looks like COVID could be a wild card; the Auburn-Kentucky game has already been postponed
- The Gamecocks will break their single season record for blocked shots.
South Carolina averaged 7.0 blocks per game last season, a total of 218 blocks. The school record is 8.6 (284) set in 2019-20. South Carolina needs to add 1.6 blocks per game, and the Gamecocks add Kamilla Cardoso’s 2.7 blocks per game, so the math works out. Incidentally, that 8.6 blocks per game average is an NCAA record, so it’s no small feat. I’ll be wrong if: Cardoso and Boston end up chasing the same shots and cancel each other out.
VERDICT: South Carolina is currently averaging 8.92 blocks per game. Normally you expect numbers to go down a little when conference play begins and the competition goes up, but this season the overall level of competition is probably going down. The school record is definitely in trouble.
- Aliyah Boston will win SEC Player of the Year.
Boston will end Rhyne Howard’s reign. I think the “Best player on the best team” rationale will give it to Boston. Plus she is the best player in the SEC: Boston looks trimmer but stronger, the result of losing 23 pounds since last season, and the lightbulb seemed to come on for Boston last postseason. I’ll be wrong if: Kentucky stays in the SEC title hunt until at least the final week of the season.
VERDICT: Howard’s numbers are down a little (her 18.7 points per game are the lowest since her freshman season), and she struggled in losses to DePaul and Louisville (21 total points on 27.3% shooting), but that doesn’t matter. Boston is playing better than anyone in the country.
- The SEC Tournament championship will be a rematch between South Carolina and Georgia.
The two teams that had the best offseason were also the two teams that played for the title last season. Between them, South Carolina and Georgia lost one rotation player from last season. The other contenders all had key losses. I’ll be wrong if: Kentucky seems like it could crash the party, but fool me three times… With the tournament back in Nashville, Tennessee could get hot and have a home court advantage.
VERDICT: Too soon to tell, but Georgia has the best win (at NC State) of any SEC team other than South Carolina. The Lady Bulldogs look like the second-best team in the SEC.
- The Gamecocks will make the Final Four.
I won’t go as far as predicting a national championship - there are too many variables for that - but the Gamecocks have so much talent that they should be able to overcome any possible injuries, slumps, funky matchups, or anything else that comes their way. Anything less than a trip to the Final Four would be a massive disappointment, so get ready for lots of Prince references. I’ll be wrong if: Egos clash. The only thing I can envision submarining the season is if players become dissatisfied with their roles and mess up team chemistry.
VERDICT: Too soon to tell, but egos don’t seem to be a problem. COVID now appears to be the biggest threat.
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