SEC play begins this week which means it’s time to get caught up on the rest of the conference. In projecting how teams will finish, I’ve divided them into five groups: Favorite (meaning South Carolina), Contenders, Near Contenders, Middle Class, Playing on Wednesday. I’ll also update my preseason awards in part two tomorrow.
COVID is already causing chaos, as two of Thursday’s games have been postponed. Hopefully teams are able to keep the virus under control the rest of the season.
Alabama (9-2) (Strength of Schedule: 197)
Best Win: 74-71 loss at Duke; Alabama has played a very weak schedule, weak enough that the Tide’s most impressive performance was taking the Blue Devils to the wire.
Worst Loss: 69-66 to Tulane; The Green Wave have a sub-100 NET but managed to upset the Crimson Tide.
Key Player: Point guard JaMya Mingo-Young transferred from Mississippi State (it seems like ages ago that she scored 14 points off the bench and nearly sparked the Bulldogs’ upset of South Carolina in January 2020) and has been a stat stuffer. She is averaging 11.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game and has an impressive three double-doubles.
Outlook: Alabama currently has a NET of 34, but that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. Alabama looks headed back to the middle class.
Arkansas (10-3) (SOS: 100)
Best Win: 83-63 over Belmont; Belmont is a strong mid-major with a NET of 87, but Arkansas has yet to beat any of the better opponents on its schedule.
Worst Loss: 52-51 to UCF. UCF is in the 30s in the NET, so there isn’t any shame in losing the game. Arkansas basically made it through the non conference schedule beating the teams it should, but also losing to the better teams.
Key Player: I’m going to cheat and list two: Junior Makayla Daniels has stepped into a leadership role averaging a team-high 15.0 points and 2.9 assists plus 5.2 rebounds. She’s been a stud. But freshman Jersey Wolfenbarger might be the key to how good Arkansas ends up being this season. Wolfenbarger has had an up and down season so far, typical for a freshman, but she has flashed potential. The 6-5 freshman guard has five double-figure scoring games and is averaging 7.6 points and 3.9 rebounds while shooting 42.3% from three. She started the last four games for the Razorbacks and her development may determine how much Arkansas can achieve this season.
Outlook: Arkansas is still Arkansas - capable of getting hot and beating anyone or getting cold and losing to anyone. But without Chelsea Dungee they are trending a little more to the latter than the former. Players like Dungee don’t come around often, but Wolfenbarger could be another one. I’m always bullish on Arkansas, so I’ll rank them a near contender.
Auburn (8-3) (SOS: 207)
Best Win: 59-51 over #18 Georgia Tech; This was a huge, huge win for Johnnie Harris. Sure, it was a fluke, but Auburn hasn’t had many flukes lately.
Worst Loss: 57-49 to Little Rock; Auburn followed up the win over Georgia Tech by losing to Little Rock. It’s a sign of just how far the Tigers have to go.
Key Player: Aicha Coulibaly has been a breakout performer. She averaged 5.1 points and 3.1 rebounds last season as a freshman. This season the 6-0 guard is averaging 18.3 points and 7.9 rebounds.
Outlook: I’m buying into Harris and her staff that includes defensive specialist Bob Starkey. Aside from Georgia Tech, Auburn also has wins over Oklahoma State and Belmont, two solid wins. That’s reason for optimism, but the Tigers will still be playing on Wednesday in the SEC tournament.
Kentucky (7-3) (SOS: 66)
Best Win: 83-60 over West Virginia; West Virginia is ranked 61st in the NET, so this isn’t a head-turning win, but Kentucky took care of business.
Worst Loss: 94-85 to DePaul. This isn’t a bad loss, but the Blue Demons are only 45th in the NET and the game was in Lexington. For a team that has dreams of competing for the SEC, Kentucky should have won.
Key Player: Rhyne Howard is, by her standards, putting up modest numbers: 18.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists. But she is still one of the most explosive scorers in the country, as she showed with 23 points against Indiana and 27 against West Virginia.
Outlook: Kentucky’s SEC opener against Auburn has been postponed due to COVID concerns for Auburn. It’s the second game Kentucky has had postponed, following a matchup with Morgan State. The Wildcats look like they are once again headed for the SEC’s third tier of near contenders.
Florida (10-3) (SOS: 78)
Best Win: 69-55 over Florida State. The Seminoles were just outside the top 25 at the time. The win ended a five-game losing streak in the series.
Worst Loss: 87-70 to Towson. Oof.
Key Player: Guard Lavender Briggs is averaging 12.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. Her numbers are actually down significantly from last season (19.5 points), and she has struggled with the longer three-point line, but Briggs is still Florida’s best player.
Outlook: After all the offseason turmoil the Gators endured, it wouldn’t have been surprising if they had bottomed out. But apparently getting rid of an abusive coach is good for morale. The Gators are probably still stuck in the bottom four, though.
Georgia (11-1) (SOS: 109)
Best Win: 82-80 over #2 NC State; Georgia proved it can compete with - and beat - anybody.
Worst Loss: 55-54 to Georgia Tech; There’s no shame in losing to Georgia Tech, but the Lady Bulldogs are the better team and should have won. Nationally, the loss was enough to write off Georgia until the win over NC State forced a reassessment.
Key Player: Post Jenna Staiti is averaging 14.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game. She had a huge game against NC State, notching 21 points, 11 rebounds, and six blocks.
Outlook: Georgia has the best win by an SEC team other than South Carolina. Georgia continues to look like the biggest threat to the Gamecocks and the second best team in the SEC.
LSU (12-1) (SOS: 102)
Best Win: 69-60 over #14 Iowa State; Alexis Morris caught fire, going 5-7 from three (she’s 4-30 the rest of the season), and LSU started fast and held off the Cyclones. It was a perfect storm for LSU, but it also showed what the Tigers are capable of under Kim Mulkey.
Worst Loss: 88-74 to Florida Gulf Coast; Florida Gulf Coast has been bouncing around the edge of the Top 25 all season, so this isn’t a bad loss. It is a reminder that the Tigers are still a work in progress.
Key Player: Super senior Khayla Pointer began the season with a triple-double and is having the best season of her career. She is averaging 17.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists, and thriving under Mulkey.
Outlook: It’s tough to tell. It’s tempting to look at the Iowa State win and assume LSU has already made a leap forward, but more likely that game was an outlier and LSU is at best a near contender.
Mississippi State (9-3) (SOS: 267)
Best Win: 76-71 over South Dakota State; The Jackrabbits are the defending Summit League regular season champions, so it’s a good win.
Worst Loss: 73-66 to Troy; The Trojans are a sub-100 Sun Belt team.
Key Player: In some ways, Rickea Jackson is the last woman standing after injuries and departures, but she’s responding with a huge season. Jackson is averaging 21.3 points and 7.5 rebounds this season, leading the SEC in points per game.
Outlook: The Bulldogs haven’t completely bottomed out, but they look headed for a bottom four finish. Jackson might be able to drag them higher, but it’s an uphill battle.
Part 2 will run Wednesday.
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