Conference play for the SEC begins Thursday, so it’s time to catch up on what the league’s teams have done through the first five weeks of the season.
One recurring theme was teams having games against quality opponents canceled, and then scrambling to find replacement games and having to settle for small-school opponents. Unfortunately, the next trend seems to be teams having to shut down due to a positive COVID test. In the past few days, both Vanderbilt and Ole Miss have had to postpone upcoming games.
One note: The NCAA is switching women’s basketball to the NET ranking system this year, replacing the RPI. However the NCAA has not yet released the NET rankings, so I’m using the unofficial RPI in its place. If you’re curious, the SEC is currently the second-ranked conference behind the ACC, and ahead of the Pac-12.
Overall SEC
Best Win: Arkansas over #4 Baylor (83-78) Arkansas’ win was a win for the entire conference. There’s no dismissing Arkansas as gimmicky anymore, and that firmly adds a fifth team to the league’s top tier.
Biggest Surprise: Georgia
At the end of last season, Georgia seemed to be a program trending in the wrong direction. Then it got worse over the summer when Dawn Staley swiped the top two recruits from the state of Georgia. But patience was rewarded - young players matured, transfers became eligible, and Georgia signed arguably the third best player in the state. Now the Bulldogs are 8-0, just outside the top 25, and with the second-best RPI in the conference.
Biggest Disappointment: Mississippi State
In the Bulldogs’ defense, Mississippi State’s schedule has been wrecked by the pandemic, so maybe the disappointment is in the schedule. Playing a bunch of replacement opponents means Mississippi State hasn’t had a chance to prove itself against even so much as a top-115 opponent, so they haven’t had a chance to do anything impressive and we haven’t had a chance to really evaluate the Bulldogs. They could still end up as a top-ten team, we really don’t know, but they still shouldn’t have lost to South Florida.
Current Projection: South Carolina is still the team to beat, but going into the season the common thought was that South Carolina was in a class by itself, followed by the top tier. It was probably a mistake to elevate South Carolina above that top group, although the Gamecocks are still first among equals. Kentucky looks like it might finally take the next step and challenge South Carolina, but I thought the same thing at this time last season and was wrong. There is a pretty clear top five teams, which means there should be quite a race for the four seed and double-bye in the SEC Tournament. The bigger gap might be between the top five and the middle of the pack. In that group, Tennessee has been a little disappointing, while Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss have been pleasant surprises.
Alabama
Ranking, RPI, and Record: Not ranked, 23, 7-0
Best Win: Houston (88-66) Houston is a surprising 10th in the RPI, and Alabama won easily. That’s a feather in the cap of a team that was quietly NCAA-worthy last season.
Worst Loss: None
Preseason Projection: 9
Current Projection: Top half
Alabama has done a lot to prove last season was no fluke. I’m not ready to think Alabama can pull out of that middle pack, but the Tide did give South Carolina fits last season.
Arkansas
Ranking, RPI, and Record: #10, 33, 9-1
Best Win: #4 Baylor (83-78) It wasn’t just that the Razorbacks won, it’s that they won despite not having their A+ game. The threes weren’t falling, so they got to the free throw line instead. They didn’t get a transcendent game from one of their stars, instead the three stars showed up, did what they do, and came away with probably the biggest win of the Mike Neighbors era.
Worst Loss: Maryland (115-96) Not a bad team to lose to, but that's not a pretty margin of defeat.
Preseason Projection: 5
Current Projection: Top-four
The RPI doesn’t love Arkansas and neither do the voters. That blowout loss to Maryland seems to have left a really bad taste in people’s mouths, despite the Terps being fourth in the RPI. There’s always going to be some skepticism because Arkansas doesn’t rebound well or second option after shooting, but it works pretty well for the Razorbacks.
Auburn
Ranking, RPI, and Record: Not ranked, 164, 5-3
Best Win: USC Upstate (82-41) When your best win is over USC Upstate...
Worst Loss: Stephen F. Austin (67-54) An SEC team shouldn't lose to Stephen F. Austin, should it?
Preseason Projection: 13
Current Projection: About the same
Don’t let Auburn’s record deceive you. The good news is that Auburn doesn’t really have any bad losses. Stephen F. Austin has the lowest RPI of the three losses at 69, which isn’t bad. But the flip side is that the wins came against weak competition. When your marquee victory is over Upstate, with an RPI of 11, you don’t have a lot to lean on.
Florida
Ranking, RPI, and Record: Not ranked, 96, 7-1
Best Win: narrowly losing to Florida State (81-75)
Worst Loss: Florida State (81-75)
Preseason Projection: 10
Current Projection: About the same
Like Auburn, Florida got a bunch of easy wins against some weak competition. For a program that hasn’t had a lot of wins recently, it isn’t the worst thing. But it still means the most impressive thing Florida has done so far is go toe-to-toe with Florida State.
Georgia
Ranking, RPI, and Record: Not ranked, 9, 8-0
Best Win: Georgia Tech (75-69)
Worst Loss: None
Preseason Projection: 8
Current Projection: A little higher
Georgia has put together a solid non-conference resume, with an RPI of nine, second best in the SEC. That’s a significant accomplishment, although it’s one of those schedules (SOS: 43) that computers love and humans are more skeptical about, and there is still a long way to go to make the top tier of the SEC. Georgia should be more competitive this season, and maybe even steal a game from the conference elite, but the Bulldogs are still in the second tier.
Kentucky
Ranking, RPI, and Record: #13, 11, 7-1
Best Win: #13 Indiana (72-68) On the road, down to its third-string head coach, and down ten with seven minutes to go, the Wildcats came back and won.
Worst Loss: #24 DePaul (86-82) It wasn’t a bad loss on its own - DePaul is a solid top 25 team - but it was the type of loss Kentucky shouldn’t have if it is going to challenge for an SEC championship.
Preseason Projection: 3
Current Projection: Challenge for the SEC title
Kentucky has had three different head coaches this season (Matthew Mitchell retired before the first game and replacement Kyra Elzy missed the Indiana game due to illness), but the story hasn’t changed: to become an elite team Kentucky had to find help for Rhyne Howard. Mitchell and Elzy have been bringing in talent, but last season it still devolved into watching Howard. This year Elzy has established some balance: Howard is only averaging 15.5 points, but Kentucky is better for it. Kentucky also added talented transfer Jazmine Massengill, who became eligible thanks to the NCAA’s blanket waiver.
LSU
Ranking, RPI, and Record: Not ranked, 169, 2-4
Best Win: Next
Worst Loss: UCF (58-48) This isn’t a bad loss: UCF has an RPI of 89. But LSU expects to win games like that.
Preseason Projection: 7
Current Projection: Basement
The best you can say about LSU is that all the losses are to RPI top-100 teams. But the wins are over 273 and 280. Ouch. LSU lost a lot from last year’s team and brought in almost nothing to replace what it lost. If there isn’t a sudden turnaround, it could get ugly.
Mississippi State
Ranking, RPI, and Record: #12, 113, 5-1
Best Win: None
Worst Loss: South Florida (67-63) This isn’t the South Florida of a few years ago that was a top-25 team. This South Florida has an RPI of just 118 and shouldn’t be upsetting Mississippi State.
Preseason Projection: 2
Current Projection: Borderline top-four
The Bulldogs’ schedule was decimated by cancellations and the replacements haven’t been a challenge. Mississippi State’s SOS is a dismal 225 as a result. The loss to South Florida wasn’t good, so right now Mississippi State looks like the odd-team out in the race for the top four spots in the SEC. The flip side is, the Bulldogs haven’t had a chance to do anything impressive, so there is still a chance to change the perception.
Missouri
Ranking, RPI, and Record: Not ranked, 156, 4-1
Best Win: None
Worst Loss: None
Preseason Projection: 11
Current Projection: About the same
As it often does, Missouri played a pretty awful non-conference schedule. There isn’t much to learn from the blowout wins against overmatched opponents. Mizzou did hang tough against Missouri State (RPI 5), trailing by just five going into the fourth quarter before fading and losing 72-58. You can read that as a good thing or a bad thing, we don’t really have enough evidence.
Ole Miss
Ranking, RPI, and Record: Not ranked, 99, 6-0
Best Win: Jackson State (89-65) Ole Miss has feasted on a weak schedule. With an RPI of 139, Jackson State is the highest-ranked opponent Ole Miss has faced
Worst Loss: COVID testing
Preseason Projection: 14
Current Projection: Out of the basement
I’ve been bullish on Ole Miss for a while. Yolett McPhee-McCuin has reshaped the roster and significantly improved the talent. She is probably another year or two from getting into the top half of the SEC, but just getting out of the bottom four is a big improvement. Now, on the heels of a positive COVID test within the team and a canceled SEC opener at South Carolina, the question is when Ole Miss will be able to get back on the court.
South Carolina
Ranking, RPI, and Record: #5, 6, 5-1
Best Win: #23 Iowa State (83-65) Coming off their first loss in a year, the Gamecocks were focused, disciplined, and easily took care of a good Cyclone team (RPI 36).
Worst Loss: #8 NC State (54-46) It wasn’t the loss, it was the way South Carolina lost, looking totally, well, lost.
Preseason Projection: 1
Current Projection: Same
We can’t say with certainty for another week or two, but it certainly seems like the NC State loss was a good thing. It was a reminder that even as good as South Carolina’s players are, you don’t just show up and win. There’s a game plan and you play together and execute. Big picture, the loss doesn’t hurt much, since NC State is ranked third in the AP poll in second in the RPI. Plus, South Carolina has put together a typically challenging schedule (SOS: 5), and wins over South Dakota, Gonzaga, Iowa State and even Charleston (RPI: 65) make up for the loss. It could matter if the teams are vying for the top overall seed in March, but that is a long way off.
Tennessee
Ranking, RPI, and Record: Not ranked, 97, 6-1
Best Win: #15 Indiana (66-58) This is one of those wins that looks really good now, but may not later. Indiana has lost to Tennessee and Kentucky, and despite the nice ranking has an RPI of just 80.
Worst Loss: None (You can’t ding Tennessee for a close loss at West Virginia)
Preseason Projection: 6
Current Projection: Middle of the pack
Is it fair to say the Lady Vols are what we thought they are? They got through last season on brand and an early-season win over Notre Dame that was nowhere nearly as impressive as it seemed at the time. This year they have a win over Indiana. We’d know more about the Lady Vols if the game against Texas hadn’t been canceled, but three games against sub-240 opponents doesn’t tell you much.
Texas A&M
Ranking, RPI, and Record: #9, 19, 9-0
Best Win: #25 Texas (66-61) It was an emotional win, both due to the rivalry (the schools have refused to play each other in any sport. This game was scheduled as part of the SEC-Big 12 Challenge) and former Aggie assistant Vic Schaefer turning heel and going to Austin.
Worst Loss: None
Preseason Projection: 4
Current Projection: Challenge for the SEC title
The Aggies had about as good a nonconference season as anybody in the SEC. N’dea Jones has been a revelation, adding solid scoring to her rebounding prowess. And then the NCAA’s blanket transfer waiver came down, and the Aggies got even deeper with Zaay Green. Texas A&M had the same problem with Chennedy Carter that Kentucky has with Howard, and now that Carter is gone, the Aggies actually look like a more complete team.
Vanderbilt
Ranking, RPI, and Record: Not ranked, 82, 4-1
Best Win: VCU (90-81) It’s slim pickings here, with VCU 99th in the RPI. Vanderbilt had quality games against Middle Tennessee State and Texas Tech canceled, so it isn’t necessarily their fault.
Worst Loss: Little Rock (82-74) Little Rock hung with Arkansas and is 4-3 on the season, so this isn’t a disastrous loss. But it’s also the strongest opponent on Vanderbilt’s very weak schedule
Preseason Projection: 12
Current Projection: About the same
Vanderbilt has been significantly affected by the pandemic: four games nonconference games were canceled and now the first three SEC games have been postponed, plus guard Demi Washington was lost for the season after being diagnosed with myocarditis following a COVID-19 positive case. Vanderbilt seemed poised to take a step forward this season, but instead it has been a mess from the start, beginning when highly touted transfer Akira Levy transferred again before ever playing a game.
