Who: #1 South Carolina (31-2) v. #5 North Carolina (25-6), Greensboro, North Carolina
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ESPN
Line: SC -9.5, U/O -117.5
History: UNC leads 11-8 and 4-2 in the Dawn Staley era. The last two meeting were also Sweet 16 matchups, South Carolina won in 2015 in Greensboro and UNC won in 2014 in Palo Alto.
How they got here: Defense, 85' Bears and 00' Ravens level defense. The Gamecocks set multiple NCAA tournament records last weekend while routing Howard 79-21 and stifling Miami 49-33. The 54 points combined total points allowed is the fewest in the opening two round in NCAA tournament history. The Gamecocks only allowed double digits in 2 of the 8 quarters played last weekend. Howard and Miami combined to shot only 19% from the field and committed a total of 39 turnovers.
The Tar Heels notched a pair of impressive victories themselves last weekend including a 63-45 win in Tucson against Arizona, last year's national runner up. UNC held Arizona to only 28.8% from the field while getting to free throw line 24 times to only 7 for the Wildcats. North Carolina used a big 4th quarter to pull away from Stephen F. Austin in their tournament opener en route to a 79-66 win.
Elsewhere around the tournament: It wasn't a weekend to remember for the SEC. Ole Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Florida all lost in the first round. Their losses were followed by second round defeats of Georgia and LSU. Tennessee is the only other team left from the conference and they play #1 seed Louisville tomorrow night. ESPN execs also lost their dream Elite Eight matchup when Iowa was upset at home by Creighton. It's too bad Iowa didn't have a team of All-Americans to surround Caitlin Clark. The winner of Iowa State and Creighton plays the winner of the Carolinas on Sunday. The Gamecocks have played 6 of the other 15 teams still alive in the tournament and are 6-0 against those squads.
For the Tar Heels
North Carolina uses a 4 guard lineup and only has a rotation of about 6 players that play meaningful minutes. They have used the same starting lineup for every game this season. I'd be surprised if more than 7 Tar Heels see action tonight. UNC's calling card is also defense. They only allow 55.3 ppg which is good for 19th nationally. By comparison, South Carolina ranks 3rd allowing only 50.2 ppg. North Carolina is 32nd in points scored per game, for comparisons sake, Arkansas was 31st. North Carolina also is efficient in terms of creating turnovers and scoring off turnovers. The Tar Heels average 19.6 ppg off of turnovers.
Alyssa Ustby is UNC's leading rebounder. The 6'1 guard pulls down 8.7 rebounds a game. Ustby is also the Tar Heels second leading scorer with 13.2 ppg. Offensively, the straw the stirs the drink is 5'8 Sophomore guard Deja Kelly. Kelly is averaging 16.3 ppg and is an 85% free throw shooter. Fellow Sophomore guard Kennedy Todd-Williams is another Heel to keep an eye on, she averages 11 ppg and 6 rebounds.
The Tar Heels guards are going to try to drive right at South Carolina's bigs with the intent of getting to the foul line. Generally this year when South Carolina has been pushed or beaten, they've played teams with athletic guards that hit the 3. The Tar Heels aren't a great 3-point shooting team but they will drive and pressure the Gamecock guards on defense. If this game is a violent rock fight similar to the Miami game, it will benefit UNC if the Gamecocks guards can't make open shots.
Shoot the J... Shoot it!
Expect North Carolina to use a familiar strategy that smaller teams have employed. Pack the lane and try to force the Gamecocks to beat you with mid to long range shots, something the Gamecocks did not do last weekend. "We don’t want them gun shy." Staley said, "We want them to be able to shoot the shots that they naturally take and allow our rebounders to do their job.”
These two teams have a degree of familiarity with each other. UNC Coach Courtney Banghart divulged this week that the two teams had a preseason scrimmage. The results of the scrimmage are unknown but apparently both sides took positives from the exhibition.
Despite this game being played only 50 miles from UNC's campus, expect more garnet and black in the seats than baby blue. North Carolina averaged only 2,136 fans per home game this year and none of those games were being played just 2 hours prior the Tar Heel men playing their own Sweet 16 game.
