Published Mar 27, 2025
WNCAA Tournament: Pre-Sweet 16 Thoughts
Stephen Anderson  •  GamecockScoop
Staff Writer
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@GCScoopStephen

South Carolina got by a pesky Indiana team in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The 2025 edition of March Madness has produced little madness, it's mostly all chalk. The field of 16 consists of all four #1 seeds, all four #2 seeds, all four #3 seeds, a #4 and three #5 seeds. The men's bracket is just slightly more chaotic, Arkansas is the de-facto "Cinderella" due to their 10th seed. The same Arkansas that inked John Calipari to a 10-year $86 million dollar contract and is rumored to be one of the top spenders in NIL money. This will likely be the norm going forward in the transfer portal age. (Especially in the women's tournament with the top seeds hosting the first two rounds).

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Birmingham 2

Only two lower seeds won games in the 12 games contested in this regional. (#10 Oregon and #9 Indiana). Both were then bounced in the second round.

Maryland: The Terps got by Alabama in what has been the best game of either the men's or women's tournament by a score of 111-108 in double OT. Quick acknowledgment of the Tide's Sarah Ashlee Barker's 45-point performance. Maryland was down by as many as 17 in the third quarter. Maryland is a guard-oriented team that will struggle to defend Chloe Kitts, Joyce Edwards and Sania Feagin. Sarah Te-Biasu is shooting 20-for-31 from 3-point range over her last five games. Shyanne Sellers (14.5 ppg) and Kaylene Smikle (18 ppg) are also capable scores. South Carolina has played Maryland yearly from 2017 to 2023 (excluding the COVID effected 2020-2021 season), there is a familiarity here. The Gamecocks are 6-1 in that stretch and are 17.5-point favorites this Thursday.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels have played stifling defense in their first two games, holding Oregon State to 49 points and West Virginia to 47. Lexi Donarski was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at Iowa State in 2022. Alyssa Ustby was voted to the ACC's All-Defensive team this year. UNC split two games with their Sweet 16 opponent, rival Duke, this season. The Gamecocks demolished UNC 88-41 in last year's NCAA Tournament. They also beat the Heels in the round of 16 in the 2022 tournament. The superstitious Dawn Staley would like to see the Tar Heels again as the Gamecocks have gone onto win the National Championship after each of the last two postseason meetings. The Heels are 5.5 underdogs to their instate rivals in the Sweet 16.

Duke: Duke survived a tough second round challenge from Oregon with their defense. The Devils were without Toby Fournier, ACC Freshman of the Year and the Devil's leading scorer, due to an undisclosed illness. Duke has won their last eight games including the ACC Tournament with wins over Notre Dame and NC State. South Carolina easily dispatched the Devils in Columbia during the ACC/SEC Challenge by a closer than the game really was score 81-70. The Gamecocks were up by 20 at half and Staley emptied the bench for nearly the entire fourth quarter allowing the Devils to close the margin to 11. Carolina is -430 to win this regional with Duke at +430 as the next closest odds.

The Rest of the Bracket and the Impact on the Gamecocks

Spokane 1: Spokane 1 will tip-off right after Carolina and Maryland end. This could be the most exciting region remaining in the field. UCLA is an 8.5 favorite over Ole Miss, but don't ever count out Coach Yo's Rebels in March, especially against teams that aren't familiar with Ole Miss' style of play. The problem is that Ole Miss is a smaller team without a true go-to scorer. UCLA and Lauren Betts will have a huge advantage in the post.

The other Sweet 16 game in this regional could be the best of the round. NC State and LSU met once already this season, a 17-point LSU win in the Bahamas. Tilda Trygger's ability to hold her own in the post against Aneesah Morrow will likely determine the outcome of this game. Morrow leads the country in rebounding at 13.5 a game. Aziaha James, Zoe Brooks, Saniya Rivers and Madison Hayes against Flau'Jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams will be must watch. LSU is a 3.5 favorite.

Spokane 4: The biggest storyline coming out this regional is the loss of Juju Watkins to a torn ACL. Watkins is one of the top 2-3 biggest stars in the women's collegiate game and was the nation's fifth leading scorer at 23.9 ppg a game. With Watkins, Southern Cal and UConn would have been a banger but it's hard to see anyone in this Watkins'-less regional beating a red-hot UConn team. The Huskies are 14.5 favorites over Oklahoma and the Trojans are slight 1-to-2 point favorites over Kansas State. It will be a surprise if anyone other than UConn wins this regional.

Birmingham 3: How healthy is Olivia Miles for Notre Dame? She is coming off an ACL and she twisted her ankle in the Irish's round one win over Stephen F. Austin. Notre Dame looked almost back to normal. TCU beat Notre Dame during regular season and has struggled against strong post players. TCU's Sedona Prince is 6'7 and averages 17.5 points and 9.5 boards a game. Hailey Van Lith has also regained form after a disappointing season at LSU. ND is a 5.5 favorite.

Texas and Tennessee will meet for the second time this season. Texas won 80-76 back in January. In that game, Tennessee shot 53% from the 3-point line and still lost. The Lady Vols will have to shoot the long ball at nearly that pace and make up the -15 rebound differential from their last game to pull the upset. Texas is a 7.5 favorite. The Horns are the favorite to advance out of the region but its' the tightest line of the field at -105. The Irish follow at +155.

Final Four Picks

Stephen: My original picks were South Carolina, Texas, UCLA and UConn. I feel very confident about Carolina and UConn. Notre Dame, LSU and NC State could crash the Final Four. As stated above, I think the best four teams remaining in any one region is Spokane 1. In Birmingham 3, Texas and Notre Dame should meet for the region title, but neither a TCU or Tennessee victory would be shocking.

Alan: I am sticking with my four from last week. I had South Carolina, UConn, UCLA and Notre Dame, and I feel comfortable with what I saw from all four of those teams last week to ride it another week. UConn feels like an even healthier pick with Watkins down injured for the Trojans, and Notre Dame played its two best offensive games in awhile last week. South Carolina and UCLA both held serve, and I don't have a reason not to stick with them.

National Champion

Stephen: South Carolina and UConn opened as nearly co-favorites. After two games, the Huskies are now +155 with South Carolina at +170. While UConn looked for impressive in the opening weekend, the drop is more of a reflection of UConn not having to play Juju Watkins more than anything else. I'm still taking South Carolina for the moment- but let's see how both look this weekend.

Alan: Let it ride. The South Carolina over UConn pick from last week feels like it is still more than intact, and neither team did anything over the first two rounds to make me think it can't get to Sunday and a title game against each other. I am staying with the Gamecocks at least for another weekend.