Published Aug 16, 2023
How Accurate is the AP Preseason Top 25?
Stephen Anderson  •  GamecockScoop
Staff Writer
Twitter
@GCScoopStephen

Here at Gamecock Scoop, we didn't want to give you the exact same article on the preseason AP Poll that we gave when the Gamecocks landed at #27 in the initial Coaches Poll. Instead, we wanted to put the AP under a microscope and see how their first poll holds up over the course of the last two seasons. We are going back two years because that is the length of Shane Beamer's tenure. We aren't trying to pile on the AP, rather just simply to test the working hypothesis that preseason polls are useless and that no official poll needs to be released until September football is finished. First though, here are the voters and how they voted in the preseason poll.

Advertisement
info icon
Embed content not availableManage privacy settings

2022 Preseason Poll

AP Poll Top 25 2022
Preseason RankTeamFinal Ranking and RecordUnranked Preseason But Ranked in Final Poll

1.

Alabama

5. 11-2

#2 TCU 13-2

2.

Ohio State

4. 11-2

#6. Tenn 11-2

3.

Georgia

1. 15-0

#7 Penn St 11-2

4.

Clemson

13. 11-3

#8. Washington 11-2

5.

Notre Dame

18. 9-4

#9. Tulane 12-2

6.

Texas A&M

NR 5-7

#11. FSU 10-3

7.

Utah

10. 10-4

#14. K-State 10-4

8.

Michigan

3. 13-1

#16. LSU 10-4

9.

Oklahoma

NR 6-7

#17 Oregon St 10-3

10.

Baylor

NR 6-7

#19. Troy 12-2

11.

Oregon

15. 10-3

#20. Miss St 9-4

12.

Oklahoma State

NR 7-6

#21.UCLA 9-4

13.

NC State

NR 8-5

#23. South Carolina 8-5

14.

So Cal

12. 11-3

#24 Fresno St 10-4

15.

Michigan State

NR 5-7

#25 Texas 8-5

16.

Miami FL

NR 5-7

17.

Pitt

22. 9-4

18.

Wisconsin

NR 7-6

19.

Arkansas

NR 7-6

20.

Kentucky

NR 7-6

21.

Ole Miss

NR 8-5

22.

Wake Forest

NR 8-5

23.

Cincinnati

NR 9-4

24.

Houston

NR 8-5

25.

BYU

NR 8-5

The AP voters missed on 15 of their 25 selections. To be fair, not all of their missed selections had bad seasons. In 2022, the AP was able to identify many of the elite teams in the country, correctly selecting four of the top five, but they completely whiffed on the bottom of their initial Top 25. The AP only correctly selected one team after #15 that appeared in their own final poll (Pitt). I believe part of the reasons for this is that the AP has difficult time evaluating the transfer portal and how the new arrivals will mesh.

AP Poll Top 25 2021
Preseason RankTeamFinal Ranking and RecordUnranked Preseason But Ranked in Final Poll

1.

Alabama

#2. 13-2

#3 Michigan 12-2

2.

Oklahoma

#10 11-2

#5 Baylor 12-2

3.

Clemson

#14 10-3

#7 Ok State 12-2

4.

Ohio St

#6 11-2

#9 Michigan State 11-2

5.

Georgia

#1 14-1

#11 Ole Miss 10-3

6.

Texas A&M

NR 8-4

#13 Pitt 11-3

7.

Iowa State

NR 7-6

#15 Wake Forest 11-3

8.

Cincinnati

#4 13-1

#17 Houston 12-2

9.

Notre Dame

#8 11-2

#18 Kentucky 10-3

10.

UNC

NR 6-7

#19 BYU 10-3

11.

Oregon

#22 10-4

#20 NC State 9-3

12.

Wisconsin

NR 9-4

#21 Arkansas 9-4

13.

Florida

NR 6-7

#24 Utah State 11-3

14.

Miami FL

NR 7-5

#25 San Diego State 12-2

15.

So Cal

NR 4-8

16.

LSU

NR 6-7

17.

Indiana

NR 2-10

18.

Iowa

#23 10-4

19.

Penn State

NR 7-6

20.

Washington

NR 4-8

21.

Texas

NR 5-7

22.

Coastal Carolina

NR 11-2

23.

Louisiana

#16 13-1

24.

Utah

#12 10-4

25.

Arizona State

NR 8-5

The Data Says...

The Associated Press knows nothing. Of course if we did this exercise with the coaches it would come out the same. Don’t fret about the Gamecocks omitted from the preseason poll, more than half of the ranked teams won’t be there in January. The AP voters place too much emphasis on where teams ended the prior year. They also perpetually overrate Miami.

My vote for 10 schools that start the season ranked that wont end up there:

10. Tulane- the voters struggle with G5 schools, Tulane wins nine but they have a tough act to follow.

9. UNC- four to five loses incoming.

8. Wisconsin- they’ve struggled the last few seasons.

7. Oreg St- great coach and solid program but they’ll catch some close losses this season.

6. TCU- Caught lightening in a bottle, Texas and OU will be better.

5. Tennessee- Huepel’s teams lose steam the more familiar opponents get with their offense.

4. KState- see TCU

3. Tex AM- the Aggies might win 10 games or five.

2. Iowa- Don’t see their offense improving enough to win more than seven.

1. Oklahoma- they will be better, but they are ranked on name alone.