Here at Gamecock Scoop, we didn't want to give you the exact same article on the preseason AP Poll that we gave when the Gamecocks landed at #27 in the initial Coaches Poll. Instead, we wanted to put the AP under a microscope and see how their first poll holds up over the course of the last two seasons. We are going back two years because that is the length of Shane Beamer's tenure. We aren't trying to pile on the AP, rather just simply to test the working hypothesis that preseason polls are useless and that no official poll needs to be released until September football is finished. First though, here are the voters and how they voted in the preseason poll.
2022 Preseason Poll
The AP voters missed on 15 of their 25 selections. To be fair, not all of their missed selections had bad seasons. In 2022, the AP was able to identify many of the elite teams in the country, correctly selecting four of the top five, but they completely whiffed on the bottom of their initial Top 25. The AP only correctly selected one team after #15 that appeared in their own final poll (Pitt). I believe part of the reasons for this is that the AP has difficult time evaluating the transfer portal and how the new arrivals will mesh.
The Data Says...
The Associated Press knows nothing. Of course if we did this exercise with the coaches it would come out the same. Don’t fret about the Gamecocks omitted from the preseason poll, more than half of the ranked teams won’t be there in January. The AP voters place too much emphasis on where teams ended the prior year. They also perpetually overrate Miami.
My vote for 10 schools that start the season ranked that wont end up there:
10. Tulane- the voters struggle with G5 schools, Tulane wins nine but they have a tough act to follow.
9. UNC- four to five loses incoming.
8. Wisconsin- they’ve struggled the last few seasons.
7. Oreg St- great coach and solid program but they’ll catch some close losses this season.
6. TCU- Caught lightening in a bottle, Texas and OU will be better.
5. Tennessee- Huepel’s teams lose steam the more familiar opponents get with their offense.
4. KState- see TCU
3. Tex AM- the Aggies might win 10 games or five.
2. Iowa- Don’t see their offense improving enough to win more than seven.
1. Oklahoma- they will be better, but they are ranked on name alone.