SEC play begins this week which means it’s time to get caught up on the rest of the conference. Part 1 ran yesterday - you can read it here if you missed it: WBB: SEC Notebook - Part 1
In projecting how teams will finish, I’ve divided them into five groups: Favorite (meaning South Carolina), Contenders, Near Contenders, Middle Class, Playing on Wednesday. COVID is already causing chaos, as now three of Thursday’s games have been postponed. Hopefully teams are able to keep the virus under control the rest of the season.
Missouri (11-2) (Strength Of Schedule: 75)
Best Win: 70-68 loss to #5 Baylor; If you watched the game, you came away impressed by Missouri. The Tigers’ flaws cost them the game, but having a shot to beat a top five team at the end of the game is a good thing.
Worst Loss: 79-51 to Missouri State; Missouri followed up the near upset with a non-compete against Missouri State. The Lady Bears are a good program, but the blowout is uninspiring.
Key Player: Aijha Blackwell is averaging 16.6 points and 12.7 rebounds per game.
Outlook: It took a couple of years of rebuilding post-Sophie Cunningham, but Missouri is a deep, talented, veteran team. Will that be enough to elevate the Tigers into the near contenders? I’m not sure, but they could make some noise.
Ole Miss (12-1) (SOS: 191)
Best Win: 61-53 over #18 South Florida; South Florida beat Stanford and gave Tennessee and UConn fits. Nobody is overlooking a win over the Bulls.
Worst Loss: 62-50 to Belmont; It’s not a terrible loss - Belmont is a solid mid-major program - but for a team with NCAA Tournament aspirations it was not a good way to start the season.
Key Player: Shakira Austin’s numbers are a little deflated (13.2 points and 8.6 rebounds) since she hasn’t had to log heavy minutes against a mostly overmatched non-conference schedule. But she’s a first round WNBA draft pick. She’s a mismatch against most teams.
Outlook: I was high on Ole Miss last season and they were close, as they showed in the SEC Tournament. This season they are breaking through. Ole Miss isn’t a contender yet, but they are creeping up.
South Carolina (12-0) (SOS: 2)
Best Win: Pick one. The Gamecocks already have five wins over top ten opponents, but we’ll go with coming back from an 18-point deficit to beat #2 Stanford 65-61.
Worst Loss: None
Key Player: Post Aliyah Boston is averaging 17.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.3 blocks, and 1.6 assists while shooting 57.5% from the floor. Boston is the frontrunner for national player of the year awards.
Outlook: South Carolina is the clear favorite to win the SEC and the current favorite to win the national championship.
Tennessee (11-1) (SOS: 11)
Best Win: 74-70 over Texas; The Longhorns were still riding high off an upset of Stanford when they were beaten by Tennessee.
Worst Loss: 74-63 to Stanford; It wasn’t a bad loss, but it was a reminder that the Lady Vols aren’t quite back to that elite level yet.
Key Player: Rae Burrell. Burrell has been out since the first game of the season with an undisclosed leg injury. She’s Tennessee’s best player, and although the Lady Vols have performed admirably without her, Tennessee’s ceiling depends on Burrell, who averaged 16.8 points and 4.6 rebounds last season.
Outlook: I happen to think that Tennessee is both very good and overrated because of their brand. Tennessee is a contender, no doubt, but not as good as South Carolina, especially without Burrell, and still behind Georgia.
Texas A&M (10-2) (SOS: 95)
Best Win: 95-75 over DePaul; The Blue Demons have given a lot of good teams problems, but not the Aggies.
Worst Loss: 87-75 to TCU; The Aggies’ calling cards, defense and rebounding, let them down against TCU.
Key Player: It’s Kayla Wells’ team now, and she’s producing. Wells is averaging 17.5 points per game and shooting 56% from three.
Outlook: There’s a tendency to write off Texas A&M after everything they lost from last season, but why? Reloading is what Gary Blair does, and he’s not going to go out quietly in his final season. He’ll be making noise in that second tier all season.
Vanderbilt (9-5) (SOS: 118)
Best Win: 51-40 over Rutgers; The Scarlet Knights aren’t the Scarlet Knights of old, but it’s still a win over a name program.
Worst Loss: 56-40 to Little Rock; The Rockifarians (I have no idea what their mascot is) actually beat two SEC teams this season (Auburn), but that doesn’t mean they are good. They aren’t.
Key Player: You can’t help but root for Brinae Alexander. She’s been through the wringer: a season-ending injury as a sophomore, a breakthrough season canceled by COVID as a junior, and a new coach as a senior. But Alexander is averaging 14.2 points and 3.7 rebounds, plus shooting 34.9% from three.
Outlook: Easily the least interesting team in the SEC, Vanderbilt offers little to inspire. And Little Rock is the Trojans, far inferior to the “Rockifarians.”
Awards:
Player of the Year: Aliyah Boston
All-SEC:
Aliyah Boston, Jenna Staiti, Tamari Key, Khayla Pointer, Rhyne Howard
*Picking the team was a lot easier before the season. There have been several players who really upped their game, and it’s hard to leave off Destanni Henderson, Jordan Horston, Aijha Blackwell, and Shakira Austin. The challenge of league play should weed out some players.
Order of Finish:
1. South Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Tennessee
4. Texas A&M
5. Kentucky
6. Ole Miss
7. Arkansas
8. LSU
9. Missouri
10. Alabama
11. Mississippi State
12. Florida
13. Auburn
14. Vanderbilt
Projected NCAA Teams:
South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss,
On the Bubble: Alabama, Mississippi State, Missouri (ESPN’s Charlie Creme has Alabama and Missouri in, and Mississippi State out.)
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