Published Feb 10, 2020
What South Carolina has to do to make the tournament
circle avatar
Collyn Taylor  •  GamecockScoop
Beat Writer
Twitter
@collyntaylor

As the calendar turns to February, college basketball enters what the industry likes to call crunch time.

Selection Sunday is a little over a month away (March 15), teams are beginning their push to make the tournament and South Carolina is no different.

The Gamecocks (14-9, 6-4 SEC) aren't in the tournament yet and have a lot of work to do if they want to hear their name called.

Below we'll take a look at just how that can happen as they push into the final eight games of the regular season.

Advertisement

NCAA Tournament resume to-date: To describe South Carolina's resume in one word, it would be interesting. The Gamecocks have three Quad I wins—Virginia, Kentucky and Arkansas—and a handful of other quality ones at Clemson and at Texas A&M, which are all both Quad II wins.

Also see: Projecting the Gamecocks' Opening Day lineup

They've also struggled this year with two Quad IV losses to Boston University and Stetson. Those are their only two bad losses, though, with the other seven against either Quad I or II teams.

The Gamecocks' 5-3 record on the road helps boost the resume while the two home losses to Quad IV teams obviously detracts from that some.

In reality, it's a mixed bag of a resume with a few more chances on the schedule to get some Quad I or Quad II wins.

How those records shake out right now:

Quad I: 3-4

Quad II: 2-3

Quad III: 3-0

Quad IV: 6-2

How the Gamecocks make the NCAA Tournament: The easy answer here is to win the conference tournament, which automatically secures South Carolina's spot in the field of 68. If the Gamecocks don't win the tournament, then things get a little more speculative.

After 32 automatic bids get snatched up in early March, there are 36 at-large bids to be handed out to teams that the committee feels are deserving.

Last year, the average number of wins for at-large teams was 23.9 but eight of the 36 finished with 20 or fewer. The fewest number of wins from an at-large team was 19.

Because of that, and given the fact that this is an interesting bubble year with more losses among at-large teams, it's not unreasonable to think if the Gamecocks get to over 19 wins they could feel good about tournament chances.

Also see: High-scoring guard recaps hoops visit

How the Gamecocks get there: Right now the Gamecocks sit at 14 wins with eight regular season games to go. To get to a comfortable place at 21 wins, that means going 7-1 down the stretch, which would be hard for any team in the SEC to do give the wide-open nature of the conference this season.

Going 6-2 or 5-3 to end the season seems doable (hard, but doable), which would mean the Gamecocks would need wins in the SEC Tournament to get to 20 or 21 wins on the year.

Over the last eight games, the Gamecocks play four NET top 50 teams, three against teams ranked lower than them in the NET and one comparable team.

Winning the four games against teams outside the NET top 50 would give them four, then if the Gamecocks split a home and home with Mississippi State and win at Alabama, it would put them at six wins with losses to the Bulldogs and LSU.

Then, the Gamecocks would have to win one, or two, games in Nashville to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume.

It's easier said than done given how unpredictable college basketball's been this year, but there is a path for the Gamecocks to be dancing in March.

Also see: Impressions and scoop from the final intrasquad scrimmage

How the Gamecocks are predicted to finish: KenPom has the Gamecocks projected to finish 18-13 this year and 10-8 in SEC play, meaning South Carolina would finish 4-4 down the stretch, splitting its final eight games.

Where South Carolina is in the NET: As of Monday, the Gamecocks were No. 76 in the NET rankings, the biggest metric the committee uses for handing out at-large bids. That makes the Gamecocks ninth in the SEC in terms of NET, ahead of Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Missouri and Ole Miss.

There's no magic number in the NET to get into the tournament with the committee putting a team into the tournament last year with a team in the 70s while Clemson and NC State both missed the tournament with rankings in the 30s.

Half of the Gamecocks' remaining games are against NET top 50 teams: two against Mississippi State, a home game against LSU and on the road at Alabama.

Remaining schedule: Feb. 12 at Georgia; Feb. 15 vs. Tennessee; Feb. 19at Mississippi State; Feb. 22 vs. LSU; Feb. 26 vs. Georgia; Feb. 29 at Alabama; March 3 vs. Mississippi State; March 7 at Vanderbilt